>1) Without GMS, developers will need to fork their apps and reimplement everything they use Play services for today. That's non-trvial and I suspect a substantial number of developers would not be willing to do this.

True but Hawuei has the resources to actually make great open source alternatives that developers can take advantage of.

>2) Even if Huawei developed their own app store, IAP framework, etc, as I understand it the order in the US prevents Huawei from entering into any new business with US companies without a license. So, does that mean that FB, Twitter, et all would be prohibited from listing their apps? I believe so.

I guess but that's not their business.

They will have to come up with a alternative to Arm due to licensing. A RISC-V chipset developed by a major company is an interesting prospect.