Well, wait a second here. Tptacek seems to have been clear in saying that
Assange being extradited from the UK itself is much more likely than
being extradited from Sweden. Assange ended up being extradited from the UK itself.
Since he was forced out of the embassy into the arms of UK police, and never planned to go to Sweden, I don't think we'll ever know if he would have been extradited from Sweden (or on route to Sweden) or not.
Tptacek was making a point that's a bit more nuanced than you seem to give credit for. He hasn't been "proven wrong" by the UK allowing US to extradite Assange.