Economics journal only publishes results that are no big deal
vox.com
vox.com
Journal of Articles in Support of the Null Hypothesis (multidisciplinary, dominated by the social sciences) [0]
New Negatives In Plant Science (biology, discontinued) [1]
Journal of Negative Results (ecology) [2]
At first I thought JASNH was more an art project than a serious journal. Now I'm not so sure.
[1] https://www.journals.elsevier.com/new-negatives-in-plant-sci...
Perhaps it started out as such? Even if it did it represents a legitimate need, and if there is any field which could embrace an arts project and take it seriously it's the social sciences. I for one would be happy if they did!
(Thanks for the links!)
Besides being too closed and a bit crusty, I think journals work well for sciences and possibly also for philosophy. That's not surprising, since they evolved around these. But, for "soft sciences" (economics, psychology, etc.), I don't think the system works very well. Possibly some areas of health/medicine sciences/studies too.
First, they have a lot of problems in practice. The replication crisis is a big example, and it impacted psychology most severely. Economics has this issue, which kind of comes down to ex post hypothesizing.
There are fairly serious issues with generalizability. Even if results of some economic or behavioral study/experiment are good, can it be generalized past the narrowest terms of the experiment.
The publishing system (or, maybe "publishing" is not even the ideal frame) needs to work in a way that promotes accumulation of evidence, data and replication but the system seems to be producing sprawl.
I'm not sure what the answers are, but glad to see there's an interest in change.
In other words: I don't think scarcity of publication venues is the main reason few negative results get published.
(Disclosure: I'm involved with another project that hopes to alleviate the problem. [2])
[1] https://medium.com/flockademic/the-ridiculous-number-that-ca...
[2] https://medium.com/flockademic/why-replication-studies-are-n...
The root causes don't have to do with informal peer recognition, but a public, measurable kind of recognition, expressed in publications and citations. Citations actually already are a implicit voting system for quality work. ( in theory...)
Encouraging journals to publish more "boring" research, and if need be, dedicated journals, can have an actual impact.
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Edit: what would be more interesting imo is similar but more extensive: a decentralized, public peer review system.
I think you're right about the root cause; that's why Plaudit's endorsement data is free and open data, publicly available through CrossRef. Citations indeed are a similar implicit voting system, but they have the "problem" that they only accumulate over a larger time scale: an article first has to undergo peer review, then get published, then get read, then get used, and then people using it also need to get their results reviewed and published. We're talking several years here.
That's why evaluators often use the journal name/Impact Factor as a proxy for "expected number of citations". With Plaudit, research can start accumulating endorsements from the moment the preprint is published, so it could serve a similar role.
(And since Plaudit endorsements judge impact and robustness separately, articles and the journals that publish them can also get recognition for "boring" research - which is not possible using the Impact Factor.
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Luckily, there are also plenty of initiatives for alternative public peer review systems. Additionally, there are also tons of "blockchain for science" projects (caveat: most appear to consist of a single whitepaper), although it's not clear to me what science-specific problem the decentralisation solves.
If you'd like some pointers to some specific such projects, let me know.
My main point of criticism is that it is essentially a like button that requires almost no effort. I can see the end resulting being researchers just trading "likes" without much consideration.
It could at least require a public text that justifies your approval of the paper, with a certain minimum length (100 characters plus). This would be something like a "peer review light".
I'm not sure this is even true in theory. The decision to cite something looks to me to be more about relevance than quality. Citing a paper says, "they investigated a related question," rather than "their investigation was especially rigorous/thorough."
Encouraging journals to publish more "boring" research, and if need be, dedicated journals, can have an actual impact.
Only if tenure committees and funding agencies consider the "boring" research sufficiently important.
- the paper is a meta-analysis, or
- the paper shows a contradiction of prior negative results, or
- the paper's hypothesis explains the prior negative results
Normalization of publication of negative results is also useful as a goal of its own; consider that a hundred-person high energy physics experiment probably has room for two hundred negative-result papers along with the two winners, as long as they properly pre-register their hypotheses.
In other words: I don't think limited publication venues is the reason few negative results get published. [1]
But absolutely, it should be normalised. I also do think preregistration would be an effective tool in making that happen, if funders start requiring it - which is a challenge in its own right.
[1] I think this summarises my views best, so I'm adding this to my original comment as well.
I know this sounds a bit reactionary in times of antivaxers and even flat-earthers, but we cannot afford to trust "Science" in the way we had been doing up to the mid 2010s. How much social policy was being enacted in the name of p-hacked psychology and social science? How much of our baseline ideologies?
Even the first announcement of results from the LHC was botched. Now, you may say "great, this is science, it's supposed to be conjectures and refutations". But then we can't trust it as guarantee of ground truth. Scientific papers can't be used in service of internet debates, etc.
I'm interested in how often some interest group pays for p-hacked results so that they can use it to strengthen their position in some way?
In my opinion, it's very hard to have good science whenever there is external money in the picture. The temptation/pressure to slightly tweak the variables or scope of the study to achieve a desired outcome for the benefactor is just too high.
The worst part is that this allows people to strengthen their biases by cherry picking "scientific studies" that seem to agree with their position even if intuitively something doesn't seem right. And science is the highest authority you can appeal to, so there is no way to refute it short of funding your own, better study that arrives at the opposite conclusion.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/p-hacking/
It does a pretty good job of illustrating why investigating the rigor of the methodology is as important as the statistical results.
And there is nothing wrong with that.
In fact, it is very useful. Any result that either proves nothing new or doesn't prove or disprove anything strengthens our confidence in the existing data knowledge base. This should even happen at school science fairs: If a student presents to me a study about how bicarbonate of soda does nothing to help plant x with growth, I would probably rate it highly as long as the content is consistent.
It sounds stupid to students, but "proving nothing" is not nothing. It is actually another grain of rice in the scale of how we approach topics that have not yet achieved clear results. And sometimes it's more than just a grain, it may be a confirmation of old results that if you had not redone the experiment yourself would remain an abstract or somewhat removed prospect.
The military wanted to conduct an experiment to see if urban or rural recruits would have an easier time matriculating. They felt the hypothesis was obvious: rural recruits would be more “rugged” and handle extreme environments better.
The experiment showed the opposite—urban recruits were matriculating better. Suddenly the conclusion was “obvious” as well: urban recruits were more accustomed to rigid lifestyles and could handle the orders barked at them.
The lesson is that if two opposite results could be “obvious” then neither are. Observational studies can very easily fall into this trap.
I was already employed while writing both and really didn't put my attention to it. I doubt you can reasonably expect these works to be anything more. At least not if the focus isn't an academic career with further degrees.
Maybe learning to write something formal is worth it, but the results are expected to be disillusioning from a scientific standpoint. Or maybe it is the exceptions that are the goal here.
One of my favorite papers for this very reason:
"Self-electrophoresis is not the mechanism for motility in swimming cyanobacteria"
The list of what didn't fix the problem or didn't change anything (or changed it only a little) .... can be the thing that points to what actually does.
In that way non results are as important as anything else.
It would be far better if the most prestigious journals pre-committed to publishing studies based on their methodology and hypothesis, before seeing their results.
Is this a problem? If you have interesting, ground-breaking, or just really surprising results, what is wrong with trying more prestigious journal? Problem is not that there are journals that take only "interesting" results, but that a lot of research is not published at all, just because results are as expected. And this journal fixes that.
> It would be far better if the most prestigious journals pre-committed to publishing studies based on their methodology and hypothesis, before seeing their results. This is quite interesting proposal, could work well for experimental sciences, but worse for stuff like math / computer science, theoretical physics.
It does not fix that because, as GP mentioned, researchers are incentivised to publish in prestigious journals, which this journal won't become. Thus, negative results still won't get published.
We don't (or shouldn't) trust in cases of major conflicts of interest. Being caught taking bribes to influence results would be a black list worthy move but institutions of all sorts effectively do the same thing with more indirection accidentally or otherwise.
Regardless of aims pushes can create bad science. Behind many private testing scandal was a blind push to improve throughput and expenses with no regards to accuracy.
I definitely don't have an answer to how to restructure it better - much less a way that is practical or able to get any political acceptance.
Researchers trying to score points aim to be published by these.
This gives them incentives to try new stuff, disregard boring results (like negative results) and for those inclined, to cheat.
These tend to push the journal profile, at least until something like the replication crisis.
It’s a positive feedback loop in all it’s glory
Vox and "good journalism" are not words that belong together. Vox is like most "news" today - pure biased agenda. Hopefully, in a few years time, a recession washes away all the trash rotting in the media space today.
https://hn.algolia.com/?query=www.breitbart&sort=byDate&pref...
Nice. If you enjoyed that, you may want to check out Adorno's Dialectic of Enlightenment and/or Negative Dialectics.
"Did you know, dear aunt, that in 1992 a study analysed the relationship between the amount of spiders in College bedrooms and GDP"
"and what did they find? are spiders bad for the economy?"
"well absolutely nothing, of course, not even that there was no relationship, but it's nice they tried and it was a very high quality study".
After all, "publication bias affects every research field out there."
Vox is basically explaining fake news without any sense of irony about how this plays out in every other industry and field.
> "Let’s say hundreds of scientists are studying a topic. The ones who find counterintuitive, surprising results in their data will publish those surprising results as papers.
>The ones who find extremely standard, unsurprising results — say, “This intervention does not have any effects,” or, “There doesn’t seem to be a strong relationship between any of these variables” — will usually get rejected from journals, if they bother turning their disappointing results into a paper at all.
>That’s because journals like to publish novel results that change our understanding of the field. Null results (where the researchers didn’t find anything) or boring results (where they confirm something we already know) are much less likely to be published. And efforts to replicate other people’s papers often aren’t published, either, because journals want something new and different."
Very similar to my complaint on this issue: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19432720
Oh, and look, it's sponsored by The Rockefeller Foundation, the definition of globalism writ large:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockefeller_Foundation#Beginni...