In 2019, they really are the best way to lie.
In 2019, they really are the best way to lie.
You can find hundred of studies to support your arguments, no matter what they are, it's even easier if you don't actually read the studies and stop at the summaries made by popular medias.
Only thru replication can you actually claim there is Science.
That's like the argument that USSR was not real communism, etc.
At some point, science is as science does.
There's no some holier, better checked, domain of practice. It is what it is, and it sometimes has replication, more often than not it doesn't.
In times past, for better and for worse, college was generally relegated to an extremely small section of generally over-performing society. And of these a tiny minority would then go on to pursue the post-grad level education that would culminate in becoming a scientist. In today's society college has become high school 2.0. And to some degree post-graduate education is going down the same path. For instance today more than 1 in 8 people have some sort of postgraduate degree. [1] Sourcing that because it just sounds absurd. In other words today more people have a postgraduate education than the total that went to university in the 70s.
This has resulted in an exponential increase in the amount of stuff getting published as well as a simultaneous and comparably sharp decrease in the overall quality of what's getting published. So I would actually tend to agree with you. This cynical state of science is generally pretty accurate for the state of what passes as science today, but it was not always this way. 'Science' as a whole is in many ways reflective of the mean, and in the public mind even the lowest common denominator. And both of those have undoubtedly fallen far below what they were in times past.
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Educational_attainment_in_the_...
The consequences for publishing something that’s wrong but not obviously indefensible are often pretty low. On average, it probably just languishes, uncited, in a dusty corner of PubMed. It might even pick up a few citations (“but see XYZ et al. 2019”) that help the stupid metrics used to evaluate scientists.
The consequences of working slowly—-or not publishing at all—- are a lot worse. You get scooped by competitors that cut corners, and there’s not a lot of recognition for “we found pretty much what they did, but did it right.” Your apparent unproductivity gets called out in grant reviews and when job hunting. The increasing pace and career stage limits (no more than X years in grad school, Y as a postdoc, Z to quality for this funding) make it hard to build up a reputation as a slow-but-careful scientist.
These are not insoluble problems, but they need top-down changes from the folks who “made it” under the current system....
But more to our discussion, two of the journals from which studies were chosen were Psychological Science - impact factor 6.128, and the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology - impact factor 5.733. The replication success rate for those journals was 38% and 23% respectively. I'm certain you know, but impact factor is the yearly average number of citations for each article published in a journal. A high impact factor is generally anything above about 2. These are among the crème de la crème of psychology, and they're worthless.
As you mention pubmed, preclinical research is also a field with just an absolutely abysmal replication rate. And once again these are not cherry picked. In an internal replication study Amgen, one of the world's largest biotech companies, alongside researchers from MD Anderson, one of the world's premier cancer hospitals, were only able to replicate 11% of landmark hematology and oncology papers. [2] Needless to say those papers, and their now unsupported conclusions, were acted upon in some cases.
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All that said I do completely agree with you that the current system of publish or perish is playing into this, but your characterization of the current state of bad science is inaccurate. Bad science is becoming ubiquitous. However, I'm not as optimistic that there is any clean solution. There are currently about 400 players in the NBA. If you increased that 4,000 what would you expect to happen to the mean quality and the lowest common denominators? Suddenly somebody who would normally not even make it into the NBA is a first round pick. And science is a skill like any other that relies on outliers to drive it forward. We now have a system that's mostly just shoveling people through it and outputting 'scientists' for commercial gain. The output of this system is, in my opinion, fundamentally harming the entire system of science and education. And this is a downward spiral because now these individuals of overall lower quality are working as the mentors and advisers for the next generation of scientists, and actively 'educating' the current generation of doe-eyed students. This is something that will get worse, not better, over time.
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis#Psychology_...
[2] - https://www.taconic.com/taconic-insights/quality/replication...
[3] - http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/education/harvarde...
(IEEE database around 2005 in noise reduction, echo cancellation and speaker separation or detection.)
Indeed, even if scientists claim something bogus, that doesn't make it science.
So...actually, yeah, it's a lot like the argument that the USSR wasn't real communism, any more than the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is democratic. People claim it to be X, other people take that claim as gospel and use it to paint X as terrible, despite the fact that the people making the claim are full of shit.
Not that I'm saying you haven't encountered the reverse; I'm quite willing to believe that people who run in other circles (or make other claims) encounter different arguments. But yeah, I see the "we shouldn't want communism/socialism, it killed millions of people under Stalin" argument all the damn time.
Depending on the definition of X, you CAN say that something is not X
Only if you define 'science' as 'the thing that people labeled scientists do', can you arrive at your conclusion.
I would define scientists as 'people practicing the scientific method'.
That is a good strategy only if you already have a sample of the thing to derive a definition from.
To create a good definition you should examine reality, and see the thing as it actually behaves, first. Only then, once you have a reality-based definition, you can judge other specimens and use the definition to say whether they are X or not.
Else, you just impose some idealistic / non-empirical standards upon reality based on an arbitrary (since it's not based on observation) definition.
The land and the people existed (as a land and as a people) and gave its name to Scotland (and content to the definition), not the inverse. It wasn't someone making up the word first and others then checking whether the people in Scotland fit it.
>Only if you define 'science' as 'the thing that people labeled scientists do', can you arrive at your conclusion. I would define scientists as 'people practicing the scientific method'.
In real life, people call themselves and are called by others scientists if they have studied for and are employed as such, whether or not they "practice the scientific method" and even more so, whether or not they practice it properly.
So defining scientists as 'people practicing the scientific method' (and e.g. excepting people with Ph.Ds who practice it badly or care to get grants to the detriment of science) is rather the canonical 'no true scotsman' fallacy.
In that sense, no scientist could ever falsify data or make up a theory and cook its research to support it, or prove something that a company paid them a grant to prove, because "by definition" such a person wouldn't be a scientist.
The importance, relevance, trust, and reality of science may change, but the underlying concept does not. Nevermind all the other forces trying to co-opt 'science' for their own purposes.
How many papers and articles describe a purely empirical inquiry into reality and accurately describe all shortcomings and sources of error? 10%? 1? It matters that our trust in "science" may continue to degrade, but none of those change the underlying concept/ideal.
I see it everyday on HN, people _believing_ we'll all migrate to Mars and terraform it by the end of the century which means climate change is a non issue. Or that we'll get fully autonomous cars by 2020 because Elon "Science" Musk said so and people _want_ to _believe_ in it even though absolutely nothing supports it. It really isn't much more than astrological predictions at that point.
People pick whatever "science" supports their make believe-world and go with it.
Edit: Especially in ML, a large part of the research is done in companies.
CERN is a gigantic engineering project used to do a bit of science. Experimenting with different concrete mixes to find one with a set of qualities is science used to let you do some engineering. OpenAI's dota bots are the sort of thing that might fall in the overlap of both discovering things and making things that work.
Maybe more to the point, "believing in science" means "believing that those experiments and observations reveal true facts", which has nothing to do with whether or not we believe Musk will succeed at his self driving car ambitions.
I think that simply incorrect, assuming 'studies' != Youtube videos. I know because I've been involved in internet arguments where I've gone looking for studies and found my own argument is incorrect/poorly supported.
And that's on harder sciences. In soft sciences (and liberal arts, etc) it's the wild west -- what gets more grants and is more popular at the moment gets priority and is "proved".
To be honest, if you're trying to make my point sound absurd by exaggeration, you've shot way too low. The mainstream nutritional view would be that a Sausage McMuffin every morning on its own isn't going to be a particularly bad thing. You need to be a lot more specific with an overall diet to be a problem. You should have asked something like whether you could find a study about eating nothing but lard is available.
To which my reply would be that the principle of charity would make it clear that in general I meant any semi-realistic nutritional view is available, not that there are studies that prove humans can be healthy on a diet of rocks and asbestos. It really isn't to anyone's advantage if I also have to append to my little post a complete discussion of what is and is not within the boundaries of nutritional theories that have been studied.
I mean... is that... really... what you want...?
I don’t think this is clear to the average person at all.
It is saying that it does and we have reason to think that. It isn't religion to say that it is stupid to deny that the blue footed booby exists. Even if it is wrong and asseerts the piltdown man is real it is markedly different from religion.
There is well established science and science-in-development, which can turn out to be wrong when new evidence is discovered. But for religion there is NO such gradient - everything is based on faith, evidence does not even come into play...
I completely agree with you that science done properly is not a religion; however, that is simply not the case for most of us who either through lack of care or time will never go beyond seeing a news article about a certain scientific discovery and believing in it due to a supposed scientific breakthrough published in a fancy sounding journal.
This touches close to home because it's in my area of research, and for years I had many discussions with colleagues about this very same genetic effect and its problems. This SLC6A4 candidate gene research was not just a fluke of incompetence (unless by incompetence you mean much of an entire biomedical field of researchers), and it persisted wildly, with huge amounts of methodological research and money behind it.
Papers advocating for this type of research (and even more statistically problematic research) were published in Nature, with lots of methodological arguments, by established quantitative experts. This doesn't mean it's correct, just that by all superficial indications, it was solid. You had to question these authority figures, and a body of research, in good journals, the actual nature of the argument, and even then you were branded a naysayer or curmudgeon.
Even when people started questioning the effect, then you had people start advocating for more complex interactions (as intimated at in the article) that just amounted to unintentional (or intentional) data fishing and p-hacking with a theoretical cover.
When I started pointing out how problematic this all was to my colleagues, I had some of them outright explain to me that they thought it might be bunk, but it was popular, and if they found something significant, and it landed them a paper in a prestigious journal, why wouldn't they publish it? That is, you gotta publish what's popular because that's how you build an academic career.
I can't begin to explain all the shady stuff I've seen with the SLC6A4 effect being discussed in this article. Some of it was probably completely unintentional, and some of it probably amounts to conscious p-hacking and fishing.
The worst part about this, that's hard to convey, is that, yes, science probably works itself out eventually most of the time? But there's such a focus on popularity and prestige, fads, regardless of veridicality, and much less so on boring rigor and correctness, that entire careers can be made or broken on complete nonsense. The person who catapaults a completely empty finding to fad status has a career elevated permanently, to a nice named-chair-full professor position. The person who is trying to be rigorous, maybe even dispute the finding or disprove it? Much less clear what happens to them, and often it's a thankless task. That is, the fad makes a career, and even after the fad is discredited, people shrug and say "oh well, that person just happened to have a good idea that was wrong." The people who do the hard work of replicating it, disproving it? Well, that's not interesting or worthwhile to reward.
Academics is really broken, at least in many fields.
I also see a weird phenomena where I'll see people who are wrong like flat earthers running DIY scientific experiments. Yet this crowd seems to be thought of as generally anti-science when they're probably more scientifically curious than the actual population. Being "scientific" means subscribing to a certain set of consensus beliefs among scientists. You can not use science at all yourself directly and be considered a scientific person so long as you just believe in certain things.
What a generational clusterfuck.