The Importance Of A Competitive Search Market | Hacker News Reader

The Importance Of A Competitive Search Market

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11 pointsbreily6 comments

I do not know what is technically possible, but I am absolutely sure that to say Google will remain the All Mighty of Search is similar to saying " Hey, I am short sighted". Search is painful and will ultimately die and give its place to something else. Think Ford's automobile vs "faster horses". In the short term, Input will change from text to voice. In the long term Search will give place to Suggestions and Decisions. Sort of like a game. Machines will have so much data about ourselves thru Facebook, Disqus (and the multiple other places where you exist) and become intelligent to the point where they will be able to predict our behavior and make suggestions. Example: Xobni will read that you want to go to Paris in June with your girlfriend and suggest deals on a daily basis. Google is already doing it with Gmail and it proves that Search is truly archaic and the innovators should focus on the power of suggestion.

Search is far from archaic. It's here to stay. Even if Xobni or Facebook figure out how to make useful suggestions by predicting my intentions (something I doubt would work very well, no matter how much they know about me), it would have a near insignificant impact on the utility I get from Google. People will always want to search for information and unless someone figures out how to build a better search engine than Google, Google will remain king.

With regards to new interfaces (voice/visual/whatever) that people sometimes say will be the "next big thing" in search -- these are just features that Google can easily implement if they prove to be so effective (which they probably won't -- I'd much rather type in my query than say it). Replicating the sophistication, performance and scale of Google is much harder.

Cuill ( http://www.cuill.com/ ) and Powerset ( http://www.powerset.com/ ) are both contenders to make a better search engine. Cuill assumes that you can make a comparable search system more efficiently. Powerset assumes that more pertinent results have higher value. Scalability isn't an issue for Cuill. Cuill's president is Anna Paterson, who is partly responsible for Google's scalability.

Anyhow, Cuill and Powerset both have scope to make systems which are more efficient and could therefore be supported by less intrusive advertising. The switch from AltaVista to Google was influenced by the intrusiveness of advertising. Perhaps this consideration would inflence a subsequent transistion.

> Input will change from text to voice.

I'm reminded of Scotty's attempt to use a Mac in Star Trek 4: The Voyage Home ( http://www.humaninterface.org/blog/archives/scotty.jpg ). Who could be happy with current search systems after seeing any amount of science fiction?

You are right, but Science fiction illustrates what we cannot build or prove YET. I am sure 2 centuries ago, there were stories about a Man who walked into a Big Bird's mouth and went to the Moon. That was science fiction then,but today it is reality.

Absolutely right.

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