Driverless electric truck starts deliveries on Swedish public road
reuters.com
reuters.com
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/convoy-flexport-automating-t...
There are tens of billions that can be carved out with automation. Electrics near large urban areas will definitely help air quality.
That's a lot of wealth transfer that's no longer going to happen between companies and poorer people; seems we'll accelerate wealth/income disparity.
Do you believe that the wealth/income disparity would decrease if instead of employing one worker to drive a truck, each box was hand carried by 1000 workers? Unless the more cost-efficient delivery companies prevent competitors from entering the (now leaner) delivery market, the result of a decrease in the marginal cost of production is more, better quality, cheaper goods whose price decrease benefits those who are at the margins the most (the group you seem to be wanting to help and who would hurt the most by artificially increasing the cost of delivering goods).
The "Curse" of Machinery https://www.stevebaker.info/quick-guides/economics-in-one-le...
Spread-the-Work Schemes http://www.stevebaker.info/quick-guides/economics-in-one-les...
And yes if you suddenly created huge numbers of unnecessary jobs at the bottom income disparity would decrease.
I don't know which scenario will play out. Neither do you. We'll have to see. Better yet, strive to make my scenario the reality. Complain about automation wouldn't help.
If you spent your whole life driving trucks and it's what you're good at, can you really transfer to a new occupation that's more fulfilling and well-paid in older age, or will you just be left unemployed or stuck with a worse job?
I think more automation is absolutely the future but we need to find some way to take care of the people who are left behind, and not just say "oh they'll get some other job".
the idea that an individual can somehow strive to change capital capturing massive swathes of business and not sharing those proceeds with those they have sidelined is pretty laudable.
i appreciate your optimism but i would consider it more on the unrealistic side, especially given that truck drivers probably aren't gung ho about studying for years to get retrained given most of them don't have college degrees in the first place.
That doesn’t mean we should create or endorse make work projects, jobs that could be faster, cheaper and more efficient when automated. Society has a responsibility to these people, which is why I support both basic income and job retraining programs. It’s the humane way to make progress without fear.
How do you think that's going to play out with energy production becoming problematic due to climate change, with water becoming hard to come by even in some Western regions, with resources like sand (!) growing in short supply.
Oh, sure, we'll just buy our way out with our endless resources and our ever increasing consumption. WCGW.
The real "half full", ie optimistic, outlook is that we find a way societally to do something like UBI, or spread jobs across more people (3 day week, etc.), or something else, without having to get there through violent revolution or similarly disturbing means.
You're right, I don't know _the_ answer, but I do know it's not greater consumption (ie shift truckers in to a job producing something else), unless we first solve energy production in a massively transformative way.
-cannot
+does not
It is a deliberate choice by states and elites, not an inability.I welcome automation, I don't welcome the income disparity that goes along with it. Automation needs to serve mankind, not only serve the currently wealthy who can "own the means of automation" to coin a phrase. No longer is the issue owning the means of production, but that the capitalists can owner the tools, and the [robotic] workers. Where does that leave the proletariat (the current workforce)? It leaves them useless to the Capitalists. In Capitalism that which doesn't aid profit becomes valued at zero -- and people can't live on zero, even if that means wealthy people can have their parcels delivered without any human intervention.
We can't rely on perpetual growth to get out of it, we're getting to the crunch. What worked before worked because we discovered energy production that seemed limitless, but coal isn't limitless. "But we found oil, surely that's limitless?".
Yes, it is disconcerting to remove so many jobs. There needs to be a solution to that.
The phrase "A rising tide lifts all ships" gets routinely mocked, but the data seems to indicate that is is true. While inequality has risen over the past several decades, quality of life even for the poorest quartile has improved.
> The T-Pod has permission to make short trips - between a warehouse and a terminal - on a public road in an industrial area in Jonkoping, central Sweden, at up to 5 km/hr, documents from the transport authority show. > > Einride would apply next year for more public route permits and was planning to expand in the United States.
So, not as sensational as the title would lead you believe.
https://www.openstreetmap.org/?mlat=57.783333&mlon=14.166667...
You kind of need to have a "there is no land beyond the beltway" world view to wind up working for most media outlets anyway (not sure which is the chicken and which is the egg) so this is "central Sweden" by that yard stick.
That is a correct statement that essentially nobody would argue with.
The more aggressive and somewhat arguable view is that upstate is anything north of about 125th street.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/massive-world-map-redrawn-b...
These trucks are unmanned, with a remote driver who may or may not be paying attention but can take control at any time.
Also, the safety net inside the vehicle is clearly just for testing purposes, while the remote safety net is something that can be done in production.
"We where very surprised to see how many people intentionally jumped in front of the moving buses to see if they would stop"
My gut says that it’s more probable that it was the hacker news crowd trying to test the technology, but I have to admit to have absolutely no data to support this assertion, either.
But enough to make me believe in not wanting to get a future job in driving trucks (there's a market here that pays)
However, shorter distances especially inside large industrial zones (like in the linked article) can be reliably automated.
But yeah, however you look at it, being a truck driver in industrial countries might not be a wise long-term career choice: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/07/convoy-se...
At was speed does the automated system pay for itself if speed vs human is a reasonable trade off to consider?
* Not considering the cost of doing the research and the cost of the self-driving truck.
For the use case mentioned in the article the human driven option is going to be cheaper because the human driven truck goes faster. Going 10km/h results in basically the same throughput as having two trucks (yes I know there's other "per trip" overhead, that's not the point).
There are some entertaining (if biased) post-mortem articles on that startup: https://www.fastcompany.com/3028159/a-broken-place-better-pl...
My take is that at 30km/h they would make a very compelling case - since that's the minimum highway speed in some countries.
Add a "package truck" wagon to the back of your train, the truck can book a place, RORO. Then continue on local roads at other end.
In NL it is 70 kph, and if you go that fast you are a danger to other drivers. What country has 30 km/h as the minimum highway speed? And what do the highways there look like? Do people actually go that fast on the highways or is that the speed that won't get you ticketed if you drive on the shoulder with an SMV?
The route is fairly short so speed is probably not an issue: https://goo.gl/maps/9yRtQV88NEzDEcePA
The route is described a bit better in a Swedish article I found: https://teknikensvarld.se/forarlos-lastbil-far-tillstand-att...
A giant leap for regulators, perhaps, since it's technically a public road, but looks like the standard move around company facility use case proposed for autonomous vehicles rather than anything comparable with transit haul or a taxi service.
They just want to cut on costs.
And hence, there's no reason you should have been downvoted.
In 10 - 20 years it seems concerning to think that 2 - 3 million people will be out of traditional work with little or no education. Additionally, young people will not have that occupation as an option. Any industry that large (including traditional diesel truck manufacturers, truck stops, gas stations, truck mechanics, etc.) will be drastically impacted, all in a relatively short time span.
Should there be some help? Should the government be rapidly retraining truck drivers for something else in the next few years?
If the largest organizations are effectively optimizing humans out of the costs, then wouldn't their profits correspondingly increase? And as the demand rises for the safety net, along with corporate profits, it seems so would the argument to take a portion of those profits to cover the nets. Maybe to the point of breaking the ideological barrier.
So wouldn't the businesses most harmed be those who continue to employ humans, as they'll have to pay the increased profit taxes as well as their employees?
What if the young already believe that?
It's anecdotal but I know someone that worked temporarily at a trucking company at the reception of their office. She's been told by the staff that they have quite a bit of trouble recruiting drivers. She didn't saw that many that came for an interview, but one of them didn't even had a driver license for trucks. They did an interview for someone that couldn't even do the job yet.
I can't see how legislation can be changed in 10 - 20 years either. Uber is 10 years old and still have trouble in MANY markets, not only against the laws but also against Taxi drivers. Even automatic trucks won't solve everything, thus companies that will use them will need both drivers, and a strike would be much worse to them than for Uber right now.
What about airplane and trains? Why do they still have drivers if automating them is much easier (and already actually done)?
Personally I can't see this industry no longer needing drivers for at least 30-40 years. Which isn't too bad with the current shortage of younger drivers.
To be honest, my guess would be that a typical truck driver is more resourceful than a typical javascript programmer. Take a look at [1] where a truck driver asks for advice how to switch careers and become a welder. You'll be impressed: the guy goes from asking a question to having his welding rig in two months.
[1] https://weldingweb.com/showthread.php?57666-From-Truck-Drive...
Hazarding a guess: your job is not immediately at risk due to automation.
My observation in Florida is you find more people who don't speak English here than in Sweden.
The exception is France sometimes.
Eg. Flemish people normally speak Dutch, French en English.
Sometimes, you see a Wallonian ask direction in dutch and they "hate" you, because you respond in French and they want to learn Dutch.
Fyi, hate is a too strong word of course. But you see them thinking: oh come on, respond in Dutch because I'm learning it and your not helpful for that.
Only commercially
In my country we would post such a message in Hebrew, Arabic, and English. Is there some aversion in Sweden to having the same message posted in multiple languages?
Are the street signs posted in Swedish or English?
Road signage, and other official signage is primarily posted in Swedish.
Swedish is very good for writing your next tome of epical poetry, it can be quite beautiful, but it's also rather unwieldy in many contexts.
It might actually not be the most commonly used language in a few generations, as the kids have already begun mixing Swedish and English something fierce.
Come to think of it, driving in Europe one does see very few signs with text.
Anecdotally I felt like I spoke more English than Swedish last time I visited Stockholm.
Why is a cellular network standard needed for electrification?
I mean, to remotely drive a car at 30mph, you either need to emergency-stop any time the control signal drops out (in which case you'll constantly get rear-ended) or you need a control system so good it can keep going even through signal drop-outs (in which case why do you have the remote control anyway) or you need an immortal data connection that never suffers drop-outs or so much as 100ms of latency (i.e. orders of magnitude better than what we have today).
I mean, you could do "Human remotely controls the vehicle at walking pace" easily enough, as you could stop all you liked without people hitting you. But we'd need lots of changes to the roads to support a mass of vehicles going that slowly.
This doesn't apply to a vehicle driving a city street.
Roads are a much more controlled environment than city streets.
Then they are doing a bad job about it.
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/large...
> The same can not be said about driverless tech companies, everyone really want to be first, that makes children and other soft targets losers.
I would guess that it would be pretty hard to do worse than we are already doing.
My argument is a variant of "better the devil you know".
If it was more normal looking you could at least smash the window. But they even protected the tires.