It's also totally possible that each warehouse will be made twice as efficient per employee... but also deliver twice the merchandise... maintaining the same total number of jobs.
Kind of the same way that automation of the past 100 years across the economy has still resulted in record-setting employment right now.
For example, if I were to be chronically unemployed and quit looking for jobs altogether, I would actually help the unemployment rate look better since I'm no longer part of that metric.
Part of the problem can be attributed to automation in jobs and job duties, thus requiring a smaller labor force. For those who were laid off by automation in manufacturing or other sectors, many would likely have a hard time finding a job in their established career. Expecting most of such workers to get a job an an on demand skill like maintaining machinery or software development is a herculean task. Most likely they are the ones who fall prey to the poor labor participation metric.
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061515/what-key-dif... [2] http://www.startribune.com/even-with-unemployment-at-50-year...
More importantly though, we're on the cusp of some pretty hairy water. Imagine we drop all of the truck drivers, taxi drivers, Uber and Lift drivers tomorrow. How many millions of people will that be - where can they go?
I'm not against automation in the slightest, but to think it won't have an impact on employment seems farfetched. Imagine a robot tomorrow, humanoid capable of basic tasks. How many millions of people would that displace almost instantly?
I don't think the past 100 years even remotely indicates how we'll handle this as a society. We aren't talking about taking away one job. We're talking about taking away a skill category. No more drivers. No more basic manual labor.
And that's not even talking about how growth would need to expand to handle the increase in workforce. Imagine our workforce doubles tomorrow - who is going to consume it all? Do we even want more consumption?
I don't think it's as cut and dry as looking at the street cleaners and how they handled it when horses stopped being used transportation. We're talking about fundamentally categories of work becoming obsolete, and having no jobs that some people qualify for.
With that said, I'm curious to live in a world where the population is forced to be educated. No low skilled jobs might have a benefit of (basically) no low educated people. However I am worried about how it will affect the current populace.
We did it with farmers. 80% of jobs in early 1800's, close to 40% in 1900, 20% by 1930, 5% by 1965, and 1.7% now. A whole "skill category" like driving doesn't even come close to farming.
Automation, and even displacing drivers, is going to continue happening gradually, not overnight. E.g. only the easiest driving jobs in the easiest areas are automated first, then gradually more difficult ones... There's no "overnight". It'll take many years, and it will be fine just like it has each decade over the past century.
[1] https://azizonomics.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/farmjobs.jpg
That this isn't special, that we're not "on the cusp of some pretty hairy water", but rather that this is just par for the course.
I just don't see any statistics that suggest the scale or rate will be anything close to larger/faster than our economy can normally handle. If someone can show those comparative statistics exist, then I'll change my mind.
Ie, how many millions of food service workers, manual laborers, and drivers (for trucks, taxis, etc) could move upward in career depth? Where would we expect them to be absorbed?
I definitely think this is hairy waters, in the sense that I want to see studies done. Planning for how it can be handled. Etc. Calling it fine in my view would suggest we don't even need to study it - which seems unfair. This degree of automation, assuming we can get over some AI hurdles of course, seems unparalleled - at least enough to warrant real data.
They will be forced to acquire more education or skill oriented trades.
The concern is if humanity will be able to adapt to something it has never seen. Where creativity and thinking oriented jobs become more and more required.