Among my favorite non-engineering books to help engineers is Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets (referenced in the article). It approaches probabilistic thinking systematically (some of the book reflects my own trial-and-error learnings but with far more rigor). It also cites a lot of literature on decision making if you feel like doing a depth first search.

For example: One new tool for me: the pre-mortem. Given a major deliverable or initiative, pretend it’s, say, 90 days from now, and the project is a flaming crater. Go around the room with everyone throwing out ideas of what “went” wrong. Then assign probabilities to the various issues and discuss possible motivations. It’s difficult to overstate how valuable this tool is. It also gamifies what can be considered negative thinking or nay-saying.

Or, get 60% of the benefit by listening to this interview with her: https://overcast.fm/+Ei1D2qbQQ

If that doesn’t grab you within 15 minutes, bail. But if this topic is interesting to you, I suspect you’ll easily devour the whole thing.

(Edited to add pre-mortem)