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Comment by outside1234 | Hacker News Reader

I mean, let's be real here, is $42 really disappointing? Because from where I sit, this company is going to be bankrupt in short order.

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I'll give you 10:1 odds Uber doesn't declare bankruptcy in the next 5 years.

probably not bankrupt, but they will basically become a small ride hailing company with high prices. This will result in their stock falling dramatically.

Define 'dramatically', and by when you expect this will happen, and I'll offer you odds as well!

In 5 years I expect the MarketCap to be around 10B$ max. If Self Driving cars are a thing then even less than that.

their customer base will be richer//business people ready to pay higher sustainable prices for rides.

If you really believe this then you can probably make a healthy amount of money buying put options.

5-year put options on Uber right now would probably cost more than the price of the stock, which would put you at less than even odds. I don't think you can get options yet, though.

A 5-year short.....maybe? Will be interesting to see what the short interest and borrowing rate will be.

I'd be happy to bet you $100 that on May 10, 2024, Uber has a market cap higher than $10B. Let me know.

It's certainly disappointing for people who have been underpaid compared to industry salaries for the last several years based on their belief that their shares were worth more.

Does Uber pay low salaries? This is the first I've heard of it.

The base salaries are comparable but the share comp, which is generally close to half of comp, was based on valuations that didn't pan out. Now that it's been marked to market it doesn't look great. Keep in mind that other tech companies have doubled their share price or better in the last four years.

Uh, okay, but what you actually said was people were "underpaid compared to industry salaries."

When you accept equity, you accept risk. I don't think that there's a terribly bright future for Uber, but the stock hasn't been a catastrophe so far, and all the other big stocks will have disappointing times too.

In the context of the individual it is useless to speak of average outcomes. Over the lifetime of Uber all other tech stocks have had a huge run. If you had a choice to work at Nvidia and you worked at Uber instead you left $5 million on the table.

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