Billions in Dirty Cash Helped Fuel Vancouver's Housing Boom
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
CBC News reported this sometime back :
> In order to be admitted into the Quebec Investor Program 2018, foreign investors must have a legally obtained minimum net worth of CAD $1.6 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency), either individually or combined with their spouse or partner. Assets that may be included when calculating net worth include real estate, bank accounts, stocks and bonds, as well as pension funds. Under the Quebec program for investors, inherited assets are classified as legally obtained, however, donation or inheritance money must have been received at least six months prior to launching a QIIP application. As of January 2018, $1.6 million Canadian dollars is equivalent to approximately USD 1.3 million,
So, wait, what about the loan then? You only need $800k CAD (~$600k USD):
> Applicants for Canada investor immigration must sign an agreement stating their intention to make a government guaranteed CAD $800,000 investment in Quebec through a financial intermediary authorized to participate in the QIIP. This prescribed investment in a five-year term note is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the Government of Quebec, and in accordance with the provisions of the program, the money is returned in full after five years with 0% interest.
But wait, maybe you don't want to have to sell all your assets to make that loan to Canada? What if someone else with money to spare could give Canada the money on your behalf? I mean, it's clear you can pay, right (since you're a millionaire), and the loan is guaranteed by the Canadian government. The only thing that would be missing is the interest one would make on the loan normally, so, what if…
> Over the last decade, a significant percentage of the Quebec and Canada Immigrant Investor Program participants have financed their investment in the country. Investors who do not wish to liquidate assets in order to come up with the required C$800,000 can finance the investment through an authorized Canadian financial intermediary for a one-time loan payment of ~$220,000 CAD, which includes all interest and fees. This means that as of January 2018, the "true cost" of obtaining a Canada investor visa is only around 175,000 American dollars,
Now, there are a few more gotchas (you have to intend to settle in Quebec, you must "have acquired at least two years of full-time business management experience in the past five years", …).
But, wow.
[1]: http://www.investorimmigrationcanada.com/
[2]: http://www.immigration-quebec.gouv.qc.ca/en/immigrate-settle... seems like a more official site. They list the number as $2M CAD ($1.5M USD) in net worth and $1.2M CAD investment (~$900k USD). But it does seem to confirm "financing". So, the theory seems sound, but there's perhaps some haggling over price. /s … sorta.
Perhaps, could they say that if you stay in Quebec, your money is just a loan, but if you don’t, it’s a permanent payment—making the entry fee almost more of a “deposit” attached to a Letter of Intent?
The US has a similar program (EB5). The investor invests $500k over some period of time and gets back the money. In practice they spend $50k-$100k on a green card plus the opportunity cost of the $500k.
IIRC, the "Investor Visa" was about $400k CAD to be invested in Canada or something.
"Critics charge that the program undermines the concept of European citizenship, potentially poses security risks and provides a possible backdoor for Russians seeking to escape sanctions against their own country."
From personal observation: Benefits are tangible and immediate to the city and its politicians from increased taxes and whatever bribes are paid, downsides are intangible and long-term to the city residents who get priced out of their homes, lose business because these "residents" don't actually live in the city, and have to live with sometimes-unpleasant citizenship tourists that are often involved in fraud of one sort or another.
https://www.politico.eu/article/malta-cash-for-passports-pro...
What I think people don't understand is that only the rich and intelligent come in through this way. You need at least $1M in the bank to even be considered.
Canada (except Québec) has a merit based immigration system called Express Entry for skilled individuals.
Québec's called Québec skilled worker programme. Despite its name, Quebec's system is not based on merit but first come first serve, paper based, slow (4+ years) and unpredictable.
http://www.midi.gouv.qc.ca/publications/fr/ministere/acces-i...
http://www.midi.gouv.qc.ca/publications/fr/ministere/acces-i...
[0] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-money-launder...
[1] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-bc-independen...
[2] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-c...
If crimes are performed to obtain such money, then the crimes are abhorrent no doubt. However the sending and receipt of said money afterwards, in-and-of-itself should not be a crime.
I believe it is not money laundering that is causing asset bubbles in specific jurisdictions, but the enforcement of anti-money laundering measures worldwide that is causing such illicit capital to concentrate to jurisdictions where avenues to launder them is accessible.
If the proceeds of crime can be spent in the jurisdictions where the crime took place, illicit capital will not cause asset bubbles.
A China-US-type confrontation is much preferable over an Iran-US-type confrontation.
The whole point of money laundering laws is that you make it difficult for criminals to use the profits from crime. If you remove that barrier, you've instantly made it far more lucrative to commit the underlying crimes. Secondly, tracking the money is how a lot of organized crime is uncovered in the first place. Removing financial controls would make it far more difficult to catch corruption, fraud, terrorism, human-trafficking, etc. committed by international criminal organizations.
It may be a game of whack-a-mole trying to prevent loopholes where criminals can launder their ill-gotten gains. But to do nothing would be far worse.
If we encourage use, ironically it will make tracking a lot easier.
>Such a share of transactions is “sufficiently large to have an observable impact on real estate prices,” the report said. It estimated that dirty money pushed B.C. home prices 3.7% to 7.5% higher than they would be in the absence of laundering.
So yes it has an effect, but it is a tiny proportion of the price, something on the order of 5%.
You can read it here: https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/Combatting_Money_Laundering_Rep...
So yes, in that context, a 5% increase is indeed tiny. The popular conception is that "substantially all" of the rise in price has been due to foreign speculation.
https://d3exkutavo4sli.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/201...
Essentially it’s worth it (to some people) to pay a “fee” to decontaminate the money.
There’s a reason why loss making businesses are traditionally associated with money laundering.
You don't mind a loss if that is the only way to launder money but if you can launder money without the loss, then why should you take the loss?
So a nominal loss is acceptable. The main thing is to get it laundered, and there is usually some price to pay to do so.
Tony Montana's downfall in scarface happened because he didn't understand this. Here's a scene where his banker explains to him difficulties in laundering as volume rises:
Secondly, I don't think I agree with your descriptions of the mechanics.
I will quote user @lsc below: "You realize that "money laundering" usually isn't about tax evasion, right? it's about figuring out how to take money gotten from an illegal venture and figuring out how to make that money come from a trackably legitimate source, which means paying taxes on it"
You want to spend the money, which is why you are bringing it into the "white" economy.
Nominal loss is acceptable to many people. If you are worth 10 billion, you might be okay with taking a 1% loss on a million dollar home to just to speed things up. This has nothing to do with it being black or white. You will be just as sensitive or insensitive to losses if you don't need to take them. That is, if you can be patient and get full price, you will do so.
The implied point I didn't spell out is that it can be difficult to launder money without taking a nominal loss. Obviously, if you can avoid it, you do. But if the loss is less than the loss you fear from not laundering, it still looks attractive.
I don't know the chinese case, but I'm assuming capital controls and other laws in both china and the receiving country in some way make it easier to buy and keep real estate compared to more productive assets. There are also advantages such as helping with visas, etc
If you consult the list of money laundering methods on Wikipedia you'll see some involve tax evasion: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_laundering
Just like "money laundering caused x% of the increase in property prices", the above is a meme, the actual truth of which is unknown. Once repeated enough, such memes eventually turn into axioms (~popular "facts") that then contribute to erroneous thinking in all subsequent discussions.
Once you fully realize and appreciate how important this rarely noticed aspect of human/crowd perception is, reading the news (and discussion about it) becomes a very different experience, I highly recommend trying it.
https://www.rebgv.org/market-watch/MLS-HPI-home-price-compar...
> So yes it has an effect, but it IS a tiny proportion of the price, something on the order of 5%."
"...it is a tiny proportion of the price..."
Technically, the degree to which it affected prices is unknown. Our understanding of market pricing is far from sufficient to make any confident and specific (to one decimal place no less!) assertions about how much of price increases were "caused" by money laundering. Market behaviors (price & volume) can bleed over into the realm of human psychology, setting off a self-reinforcing feedback loop of greed. When this happens, setting of another x% of price increases, is it correct or incorrect to say that particular portion was caused by the demand from money laundering? Once again, the correct answer is: we do not know.
Any claims by anyone on this specific subset (the degree to which is certain things caused particular price increases) of the topic is inherently speculative, for more reasons than just the one outlined above (another obvious reason is, several of our input variables into the price increase model are themselves estimates).
The fact of the matter is that the article is nothing but hearsay. Sure, it looks like there's some sketchy money laundering going on but getting your money out of China and flying under the radar while doing it is likely to involve the same sorts of laundering shenanigans as liquidating the proceeds of crime.
Admittedly, it’s not that bad anymore (Xi has really cracked down and things have cleaned up a lot), but it was 10 years ago that this wasn’t the case, that is at least some of the money going to Canada.
1. Lawyers in BC are exempt from reporting suspected money laundering activity - protected by solicitor client privilege. Trust accounts were horrifically abused to move billions into real estate.
2. Gangs literally washed bags of cash at casinos with virtually no oversight.
3. Billions - literally billions - worth of exotic cars were bought with dirty money and exported to China in shipping containers to avoid BC luxury vehicle tax and Chinese car taxes.
When the dust settles on this episode, BC will probably have the reputation of the seediest corner of the developed world wrt money laundering.
If you want to avoid Chinese car taxes, exporting a car to China doesn't seem like a good start.
It's common for consumption taxes to be paid where the item is consumed. So if these exports 'avoid BC luxury vehicle tax' as you say, this makes total sense.
But those cars would be subject to tax when imported into China.
If you're a car manufacturer that sells your cars at higher pre-tax prices in China than in the rest of the world (i.e. most car manufacturers) then you don't want people to do this.
It's my understanding that the casino laundering scheme has been going on for decades but I can't imagine that'll go on forever. I'm not too sure where you go from there. I guess start a 'legitimate' cash business but I imagine there's much better ways.
[0] - https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2012-08-09/lon...
[1] - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/ian-hislo... - "Since then, Hislop has become the most sued man in English legal history, though he says the rate of libel actions is slowing."
[1] https://www.vanityfair.com/style/society/2013/04/mysterious-...
“That’s not because the apartments haven’t sold. London land-registry records say that 76 had been by January 2013 for a total of $2.7 billion...”
https://soundcloud.com/citationsneeded/episode-73-western-me...
Exempted from our anti money laundering KYC laws are realestate sellers, lawyers, and accountants (setting up corporate structures to circumvent foreign ownership review board scrutiny) [2]
The median house price in Sydney is now greater than $1,000,000 while the average gross wage is $82,000 per annum.
It's way out of whack, and unfettered money laundering into realestate purchases is partly to blame.
[1] https://www.propertynerd.com.au/news/chinese-laundering-mone...
[2] https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/10/australia-worlds-we...
Prices in central Madrid are vastly inflated because they are buying left and right, sometimes paying more than market price.
https://www.miamiherald.com/real-estate/article221739550.htm...
More likely, central Madrid enacts zoning policies that prevent supply from rising to meet demand, thus resulting in price increases: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/24/17896482/b...
the bottom should drop out of the market when they all die in another 10-20 years, or if rates rise back up to pre crisis levels, or if people decide to work remotely and buy land and build houses in more rural areas.
in canada the rate went from 16% in 1991 to 0.25% in 2009. the new crisis should begin around the mid 2020s, probably as trump leaves office. similar to the bush-obama transition or the clinton-bush one.
O, Canada. Must we live our stereotypes so?
At least that dirty cash does some good in Canada.
[0] https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2019/04/25/bc-says-its-m...
With money laundering laws, the government doesn't have to prove any crime happened. It does an end run around due process.
The government focuses on a symptom (money laundering) of an underlying problem (organized crime generating hundreds of millions of dollars from criminal enterprises), enlists the media to make sensationalist claims about said symptom based on hearsay, and builds public consent for invasive new surveillance laws that criminalize financial privacy and seize private property without the government having to prove any crime happened (civil forfeiture).
Meanwhile, the underlying problem that the government professed to be concerned about is allowed to fester.
The funny thing about "dirty cash" and money laundering is that this designation is reserved for AFTER you discover what the origin of the money was AND ALSO have seen it converted into a clean source. The action of converting it into a clean source doesn't make it dirty before hand, hence no money laundering. The onus is on the government. Money laundering itself just being an added on charge to help make an indictment stick, when you can't actually pin the crime to acquire the dirty money on anyone. How much would that cost British Columbia to figure out? Would be the dumbest use of public coffers
I'm in BC. The honest answer to this is really nothing. No one at a higher level cared at all about this, since they were raking in a ton from transaction fees.
Vancouver, BC, Federal government?
total war of attrition just to make property prices rise by 65% instead of 70%
Give people legal ways to invest / spend. Sure the criminals will still launder drug money, but then you can isolate that.
Or if you look at US corporate tax law, until it was updated last year, hundreds of "America companies" were parking their money in Ireland because it was too expensive to bring it back to the US.
I imagine Canada's marijuana legalization will take a bite out of the drug laundering at the casinos.
So, having a lower tax rate, all other things equal, is going to make your state a more attractive destination for money laundering.
Where do you think the money to be laundered is coming from?
Edit: Oh really, where is the non-hearsay in this article?