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Comment by TimTheTinker | Hacker News Reader

Blue Origin is somewhat like the Waymo of space tech. They'll continue plodding methodically, indefinitely. And you can bet their safety/reliability record will be nigh near perfect.

Yes, Waymo is the market leader in self-driving technology (unlike Blue Origin). And there's currently no analogue to SpaceX in the self-driving car market. The incredible, complementary leadership duo that Musk and Shotwell present is unparalleled in both markets.

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>And there's currently no analogue to SpaceX in the self-driving car market.

Isn't... Tesla analogous to SpaceX in the self-driving car market?

Tesla is too unstable to compare it with SpaceX I think.

Tesla self-driving is mostly just ADAS + marketing. I'd be very careful to assume anything higher than SAE level 2 in real-life scenarios that are outside of their testing grounds.

Some people paid with their lives for this assumption.

Nope.

SpaceX has a working product that is eating its competitors' lunch (from a nothing company to having almost half the launch market within 10 years).

Tesla doesn't have a self-driving product that works, just standard assisted-driving tech that every other car company already sells, plus dangerously overpromising marketing.

"And you can bet their safety/reliability record will be nigh near perfect."

Why do you believe this to be the case?

I think people believe Blue's much slower approach to space is because of more testing and planning. I am a skeptical person and believe you can learn much more by doing. As long as missions are unmanned then frankly why not take tons of risks and learn and grow lots faster. The approach Blue is taking feels like it should have diminishing returns in regards to safety and maybe even worse safety as the longer timelines may not play well with actual clearer and better thinking.

Wait, does Waymo have paying customers?

Their fleet size is way smaller than Tesla.

They're the leader in features for sure, but that's not what market leader means I don't think.

Yes, Waymo has paying customers that ride in cars that have demonstrated the capability to navigate populated city streets without a driver. I think calling Waymo the market leader is a fair assessment.

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