This is what weakrefs (or better data structures) are for. The Linux kernel uses reference counting incredibly effectively for almost every structure. I think that pretty much discounts any argument that reference counting cannot work.
> (5) Rust features a lot of "cheating" - pointers that allow mutation from multiple threads, reference-counted pointers, etc. - so obviously just ownership&borrowing isn't good enough
"unsafe" isn't cheating and isn't even related to whether garbage collection is a good idea or not. Yes, Rust's ownership and borrowing model doesn't cover all programs and hence "unsafe" is required -- but "unsafe" doesn't use a garbage collector so the existence of "unsafe" doesn't change that Rust works without one.