The sour science driving James Harden's vexing genius | Hacker News Reader

The sour science driving James Harden's vexing genius

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56 pointskqr244 comments

> Unless the league proactively addresses its rules and these whistle-chasing tactics, free throws stand to become the next version of corner 3s, with the league's smartest teams and players racing to find new ways to get them.

The NBA will probably crack down on this at some point considering how awful it is to watch Houston's games sometimes.

I never knew that Harden's flopping was born from a strategic team effort. Makes sense since you have the #1 and #2 floppers in the league on the same team.

They already cracked down on it to a degree this season with the new Harden rule. If a player has not yet gathered the ball when contact occurs, it’s a common foul, not a shooting foul.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/how-the-nbas-newly-impose...

Yep he got his own rule. It's still only part of the strategy though. Another foul draw comes from using "normal offensive movement" when shooting, aka jump and move forward, and get a foul called when the defensive player is in your way and doesn't provide room to land.

I know Rockets ball gets a lot of flak and isn't fun to watch all of the time, but as a Houston fan, I admire the amount of time that goes into hacking the metagame.

I've always thought that the base mechanics of basketball are fundamentally broken, and I'm surprised that it's only in the last few years that people have figured out how to exploit it (or maybe it's only now that someone is finally shameless enough to exploit it).

Exploiting loopholes reduces the quality of the game and it's just not as fun to watch. The idea that this is a calculated, team effort is annoying. Too bad there isn't a way to give a whole team a technical foul.

I understand this sentiment but let’s call out all of the spades.

Another loophole: Kevin Durant signing with the Warriors. This team took advantage of a one year salary jump resulting from TV revenue which granted them exactly the max slot money they needed to sign the second-best basketball player in the world (at the time - he is arguably the best in 2019).

The NBA gaffed here, honestly. They could have negotiated a smooth salary cap raise with the union over several years. They refused, and it led to arguably the greatest superteam in league history (and this comes from a Heat fan who remembers LeBron + Wade + Bosh very clearly).

One good metagame play deserves another.

How was KD signing his contract year a loophole? The Warriors paid the max that could be paid for a 9-year vet, $26,540,100, and they were still under the luxury cap. [1]

As for gaffing, it wasn't the NBA but rather the NBAPA. The NBA has good reason to smooth out salaries. But it's a stars league and the stars have good reason to lock in as much now as possible. Who has been the president of the Player's Association since 2013? CP3.

[1] https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap

My point is that Houston and Golden State have identified and capitalized on arbitrage opportunities. I don’t think NBA fans are thrilled about either team at this point, since - despite concerns about Harden’s foul-baiting - Golden State has dominated the NBA for almost 3 years now.

As for cap smoothing - my bad, you’re right! https://www.si.com/nba/2015/03/11/nbpa-rejects-salary-cap-sm...

And GS in 2016-17, also right and I’m kind of shocked! That Curry contract was a steal in retrospect (although justified given his early career injury troubles). http://www.basketballinsiders.com/golden-state-warriors-team...

(The CP3 thing I won’t discuss except to say that he’s a prodigious talent who also takes shots, although they are sometimes of a cheaper, dirtier kind.)

CP3 is unquestionably a first vote HOF. Not my favorite, but a great player. Arguably in the top 5 small players ever. (Edit: Sorry, I was agreeing with you.)

As for GS, it seems they're pretty popular elsewhere. I obviously like the Warriors brand of beautiful basketball, but I have to, I am forced to against my will, give credit to the Rockets for assembling the anti-Warriors and analyzing the game and the opposition. I can't watch their games but they are very effective.

(Weird that you're getting downvoted.)

I don’t think I questioned CP’s HOF credentials anywhere, except on whether he’s a dirty player. Which he is.

I understand this sentiment but let’s call out all of the spades.

Of all the colloquialisms to go to...

That was racist about a century ago. Now, not so much

it is not now and never was racist, and the expression vastly predates the word "spade" ever being used in a slur sense (by centuries).

/s/was/could have been construed as/

> I'm surprised that it's only in the last few years that people have figured out how to exploit it (or maybe it's only now that someone is finally shameless enough to exploit it).

It’s been going on longer than that. Look up the Reggie Miller rule, which was instituted to stop the previous version of the shooter running into the defender trick.

> I've always thought that the base mechanics of basketball are fundamentally broken, and I'm surprised that it's only in the last few years that people have figured out how to exploit it (or maybe it's only now that someone is finally shameless enough to exploit it).

It’s been fundamentally broken ever since being seven feet tall, healthy, and in decent shape was enough to get a Division I scholarship.

They will need to do something, because it is not an entertaining product right now. I'm beginning to pine for the physical grindfests of the early 2000s before the Malice-in-the-Palace, let alone 80s or 90s ball.

The Rockets are all in on analytics and routinely use their D-league team to experiment with, frankly, cheesey min-maxing strategies.

The Rockets' analytics approach is kind of like Money Ball which was awesome in turning the tables until everyone figured it out.

Basketball is downright boring right now at the pro level. Everyone wants to gather far beyond the arc and launch 3s. The NBA needs to decide whether the game is supposed to be about the athleticism and effort of the players or who can launch the most long range shots. It can't be about both.

The fact that Steph Curry, who is a limited player, is regularly in the running for MVP, is a joke. There was a guy almost identical to him, with better overall talent, in the 90s. His name was Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, and he didn't exactly have an illustrious career.

I wrote out an entire well-reasoned response to your comment, then finished reading your comment comparing Abdul-Rauf to Curry. I mean, not even Reggie Miller or Ray Allen?!

Curry is a generational shooter and transcendent offensive talent. 2x MVP, 8 seasons of 20+ PER. Over 20 ppg over the last 7 seasons.

Abdul-Rauf averaged 14.5 ppg in 9 seasons in the NBA, never breaking 40% 3P% or 20 PER.

Curry has NEVER shot below 40% 3P% in a season.

Abdul-Rauf’s closest comparison on BBall Reference is Rafer Alston. Most non-fans will respond to that with “...who?” To that I say “exactly.”

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/abdulma02.htm...

Put some respect when talking about Skip To My Lou ;-)

Agreed with your commentary - Steph is one of the greatest NBA players ever, and a variety of regular stats and advanced stats (i.e. gravity measurement) reflect that. It's why guys like him, Harden, and Dame make 1st team all NBA - the pressure they exert on defenses is insane.

I loved Lou! A streetball legend who carried the Magic when Nelson went down on their run a decade ago. He should have been a star, but I think he made the NBA jump a bit late.

Yeah these guys are on another level. Comparing them to Abdur-Rauf is like comparing Jalen Rose to Kawhi Leonard.

You can save it, because it's clear you didn't watch any of them play. It's also clear that you took the parts you wanted to talk about from my post and ignored the point.

Reggie Miller? Shooting guard. Ray Allen? Shooting guard. So was Jordan, Kobe, Wade, etc. Scoring point guards didn't exist with the exception of Iverson, who is a completely different animal than the step-back 3 point shooters of today.

How much of a threat do you think Curry would be if he were asked to take 7 or 8 20-24 foot shots all game long like the PGs of that era? It erases him offensively.

Now, you didn't watch Rauf play, so all you have to go on are the stats. I did. I was a huge fan of him in college. He averaged over 30ppg as a freshman (his scoring dipped in year 2 because he had to share the court with Shaq) and had the prettiest stroke I've ever seen. He had some of the best ball handling skills since Maravich. He was a basketball savant.

So what happened?

He went to the league and was asked to do what point guards did back then: move the ball down the court and pass it away. He was the 3rd overall pick in the draft and was asked to pass the ball to Mutumbo and Antonio McDyess in an offense predicated on scoring a lot of points quickly with a ridiculous pace for the era. He also caught a ton of heat for not standing for the Pledge of Allegiance, which ultimately caused him to get blackballed from the association.

But don't take my word for it.

Go look up abdul-rauf curry on google.

Oh, look, there's a tweet by Phil Jackson:

"Never seen anything like SCurry? Remind you of Chris Jackson/ Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, who had a short but brilliant run in NBA?"

Yeah, Phil only coached against him. He totally doesn't remember the time that the 72 win Bulls lost to the Nuggets because of Rauf's performance, or the time that Rauf torched Stockton for 51.

> Everyone wants to gather far beyond the arc and launch 3s

Sure, there's players like Trae Young that just launch 3s. But if you don't make them, either your coach or the opposing team will fix that. Except for Buddy Hield and maybe Kyrie, we're not seeing a wave of high volume and high percentage (say over .4) 3 point shooters.

If you don't like watching Kyrie, I don't think you like basketball.

It’s tragic when players aren’t brought along properly. Boys Among Men by Jonathan Abrams talks about the incentives are all misaligned for raw, talented rookies. You’re right - I didn’t know that about him.

Maybe I didn’t watch as much as you, sure, but Magic Johnson also didn’t fit the traditional mold of a point guard. He still somehow found a way to become a legend.

At this point we have almost a decade of evidence on both players, and the evidence is clear. Even if Abdur-Rauf may have been great now, not even Phil will call him as great as Curry:

> After his original tweet set the Internet ablaze, Jackson provided a follow-up message to clarify things and confirm he wasn't placing the two players on the same level:

> How does commenting on Rauf mean I'm comparing him to Curry? Remind, yes, quick release, cross over, Yep, MVP, nope. Get a grip!

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2625417-stephen-curry-co...

> Now, you didn't watch Rauf play, so all you have to go on are the stats. I did. I was a huge fan of him in college. He averaged over 30ppg as a freshman (his scoring dipped in year 2 because he had to share the court with Shaq) and had the prettiest stroke I've ever seen. He had some of the best ball handling skills since Maravich. He was a basketball savant.

> So what happened?

I mean, mostly what happened is that he got blackballed out of the league for refusing to stand for the national anthem, but also, yes, I don't think Phil's comparison was crazy. I do think Abdul-Rauf, in a modern run and gun/SSOL offense would have been Steph-before-Steph (I also think Nash would have been much the same if he'd hunted for his own shot more).

Oh! Forgot to add, tho, that your initial comment was wack; every player is limited in some way and Steph is probably the best shooter who's ever played and he bends the gravity of the game in a way that basically nobody ever has before, which would be reason enough to put him in the running for MVP even if he wasn't routinely among the leaders in counting and advanced stats.

I genuinely can't understand the sentiment as I find the quality of the game great. The biggest issues to me are "reviewing fouls" to see if they are flagrant and fouling at the end of the game (especially with the 3 point so prevalent in today's game, sometimes fouling for 2 free throws can be beneficial). I wish the refs would generally take a more "let them play" approach so I guess this would fix the issue of James Harden (who I dislike for his style of game)

With Tim Duncan retired, I can't think of a center or power forward with enough moves to post up and score reliably. Guys will talk about spending their whole offseason refining their post-up game, and that just means they learned a drop-step...

The high pick-and-roll and four-out sets everyone runs now are pretty monotonous.

The worst part is the style spills over to the way ordinary people play in pickup and rec ball. Not many with the requisite talents at that level, but boy do they try.

``` That gap can't be explained solely through Harden's unprecedented prowess on unassisted 3s and how much it frightens defenders. It's about antics, man ...

When we look at the league's most voluminous 3-point shooters over the past three seasons, we see Harden's foul rate is more than twice as high as any of the league's other top marksmen. ```

It's a little odd that Goldsberry recognizes that Harden's 3pt attempts might be different than most 3pt attempts but then only compares his foul rates to other people taking threes.

The style of shot (catch/shoot, unassisted, etc) is much more important for fouls than the type (2pt/3pt). If Harden gets a lot more fouls when shooting unassisted jumpers, including 3 pointers, than everyone else shooting unassisted jump shots then maybe it's antics. Otherwise, comparing fouls on Harden's 3 pointers to fouls on Khris Middleton's 3 pointers is like comparing fouls on Rip Hamilton's 2 pointers to Shaq's 2 pointers.

It's a limited comparison, I agree, but I think it still tells part of the story. Curry shoots fewer threes but the same kind, and he can't buy the types of calls Harden gets

I've heard the argument on /r/nba that one key to James getting fouls is his beard. He throws his head back, and his whole chin bounces up and makes it super noticable to the refs.

A big part of drawing fouls is getting the ref to be looking at you and seeing contact, and waving a big beard in the air gets a lot of attention

That's the first good reason I've heard for why he maintains such a long beard. I wonder if it was a calculated decision.

is "because he likes it" a "good reason"?

The Rockets allegedly track ref tendencies and feed that info to their players (Harden included) so that they can better draw fouls. [1]

Can't say I fault a team for doing everything within the rules to win, but it sure makes the games hard to watch (and I say that as a fan of both the league and Harden + CP3).

1 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyuIEMdOi_E&feature=youtu.be...

The evolution of the game is based on hacking the rules. The step back 3-pointer is based on the fact that you can take two steps and glide to the rim (layup or floater) or one step sideways, then back and jump shoot (fadeaway) so why not take two steps back then jump forward (step back 3) which you have to do anyway to create enough forward momentum on your shot to avoid muscling the shot (Lebron-style step back 3) and getting tired eventually (if you're not Lebron).

It's innovation at its finest, or better yet, iteration. Because anyone watching the game knows that Steph Curry made the step back 3 a game changer in today's NBA. Harden just perfected it.

it's a tricky balancing act. i just watched two of his 3-point foul draws in the game tonight (one deserved, the other not so much). a little bit of foul shopping keeps the other team's defense honest, but harden does it so much that it's frustrating. players really shouldn't be rewarded for constantly baiting opponents into fouls.

fractional free throws to nullify the advantage would be odd, and not calling fouls consistently would be even more maddening, so the solution isn't straightforward.

with that said, harden really is fun to watch when he's not just fishing for fouls.

In my opinion a good way to address this behavior is by crawling over game footage from multiple cameras after the game itself. Anyone caught flopping should be served with a multi-game suspension. Flopping is just as much cheating as bribing a referee would be.

This is a great idea. Not only is flopping cheating, it's dangerous. Harden was legitimately poked in the eye recently and when he went down everyone ignored him, precisely because of his history of faking injury. Officials need to know when an injury is real.

If you get legitimately injured but it gets ignored because you fake it that often (and your team suffers as a result), seems like a problem that would sort itself out.

Obviously that's not happening or this article wouldn't exist.

I’m reminded of the time Carmelo Anthony got injured, collapsed onto the floor, and was ignored by all nine other players for two possessions due to his reputation for flopping.

Remember when the Lakers had to intentionally foul and stop the game to pull out Kobe after he tore his achilles?

All pro athletes accept risk of injury as the price of being the best. If you refuse to take risks then you'll be beaten by somebody who does. Even if the expected value for the team as a whole is negative, it often still makes sense to take the risk, because "best in the world" earns you so much more (including earnings from adverts/speeches/movie deals/etc.) than 2nd best. The rules are supposed to prevent this race to the bottom.

Totally valid point, I'm arguing about the sense of urgency in the league addressing it is all. If two jets of the same make and model crash in relatively short window, then yes, ground every last one of them right then and there and get every stakeholder involved; if a bunch of multi-millionaires get some extra side eye because they may have got nudged a bit extra, why not wait and see if it self corrects based on TV ratings and ticket sales?

Edit, added: "based on TV ratings and ticket sales" to original response.

I’d say the best play is the 4 point play back breakers

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