Are there any municipalities that have already passed regulations allowing driverless cars on the roads? Are any already working the regulations through the process? If the answer is no to both of those, there is no way autonomous taxis happens next year.
Having "autopilots" crash while drivers are in the car also does not help the case.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/video/2019/mar/09/waymo-t...
Initial trials will probably include humans if required to avoid needing laws passed (as I think Waymo is doing), I don't really see that as a huge obstacle, and once the human-supervised models can prove they are safe, it'll be easy enough to change regulations if required.
I imagine Musk has had discussions with a few and felt emboldened to make his statement by that. Of course he constantly exaggerates, the projections of possible profit for owners were not realistic (at least in the next decade), and his timelines are about 2x faster than real life, so I'd be surprised if they have more than a small trial next year for this.
If I come to you asking for $1 billion in funding. I don't tell you about the boring, low growth, probable outcome. I tell you about the exciting, new, unexplored potential market just waiting to be tapped.
But no, self driving taxis aren't just around the corner.
Whether it works? I don't know, the stock rose on the news which would suggest some people are convinced.
Whether your view of a company is positive or negative, you can put your money where your mouth is.