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Comment by vondur | Hacker News Reader

The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the region than China does. In theory, we just have to make more advanced weapon technology available to some our allies in the region. I'd support helping India modernize their military with equipment, training and joint exercises.

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> The US still has a huge Navy compared to China

At this point the most likely result of Sino-American naval conflict would be a bloody stalemate. Missiles really change the equation for surface ships as the article correctly points out. I would not like to be on a US carrier anywhere near the Chinese coast in the event of a war. They are likely to end up like the Prince of Wales and Repulse. [1]

On the other hand it does not seem likely that the Chinese fleet could deal with US submarines, so it's not clear how they could protect their own shipping.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_Prince_of_Wales_and...

The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the region than China does.

This might well change if China takes back Taiwan. If that happens, China could engineer a situation where it's better for the local powers to cozy up to China, than to take the side of the distant US. Even though the US, as a distant hegemon, is the better option, the US might not have the power to keep China at bay any more, so the lesser of the two evils for everyone could be seen to give in.

If I were in the Defense Department, I would be creating SOSUS-like arrays near Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and the Philippines, plus an R&D program to create a swarm of super quiet autonomous midget submarines to go along with it. Basically, take unprecedented steps to make it tremendously dangerous to invade Taiwan, even if China has air superiority. (I very much doubt we'd be able to prevent China from getting that in the long term, even temporarily.)

Just in a practical global stability sense it would probably be best if China re assumed its historical role as regional hegemon.

I actually think it would be better for the us to unburden ourselves of the need to provide security for Taiwan, japan and Korea, as long as we continue to have trade agreements.

I realize that their system of government isn’t great and violates human rights on a massive scale, but in terms of foreign policy and the actual usage of their military for the past several decades, they’ve been a lot more reasonable and done far less damage than the us has.

Basically, because the US geopolitical strategy has kept them in check. Give them access to the world's oceans and the global stage to play in, and one might well see a lot more of that not-so-great stuff from China.

If they behave exactly like the United States that would be scary. Between Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria the US attempts to flatten about 1-1.5 countries per decade in the Middle East.

If China used that strategy in South America, I'm not sure the US military would smile and quietly appreciate the parallels. They'd be angry.

Basically everyone who gets to be world hegemon ends up acting like bastards a little or a lot.

Taiwan Can Win a War With China

“One of the central hurdles facing the offensive is surprise. The PLA simply will not have it. The invasion will happen in April or October. Because of the challenges posed by the strait’s weather, a transport fleet can only make it across the strait in one of these two four-week windows.“

“There are only 13 beaches on Taiwan’s western coast that the PLA could possibly land at. Each of these has already been prepared for a potential conflict.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...

Assumptions like this have a way of getting countries invaded. They're true until they're not true.

The only assumption that matters is the assumption the USA will defend the country and not look away to prevent a world war. The moment that assumption does not hold true...

There is a serious proposal for the Mainland Chinese to unilaterally build a civilian tunnel to Taiwan. If the Taiwanese bomb it, the Chinese have a pretext for retaliation. That might be tricky.

Bear in mind, though, that the US Navy operates in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean and occasionally Arctic. The US Navy often operates far from US naval port facilities.

The Chinese fleet is concentrated almost entirely in the Western Pacific, near its naval ports.

The US faces many of the logistic and economic challenges the British faced when they ruled the world's oceans.

Except it’s also 100 years later, and we’re much, much better at it than the British ever were.

The air support for the US Navy, on the other hand, is slightly better than the Royal Air Force of 1890. And, the ICBMs, satellites, and submarines are a tad bit more sophisticated. Other than that, though, your analysis is spot on. (Well, to be fair, the US Navy has made some remarkable inroads with the whole scurvey thing...)

I hope we don't also forget how we beat scurvy, then have to rediscover it.

I hear vitamins cause autism in sailors.

Given their current tensions with Pakistan, that seems like a horrific idea

Yeah I have no idea how anyone thinks that would be a good thing. You only have to watch the hyper-nationalism and blowing up satellites in LEO in the lead up to this election, as the country. Of all the places on Earth where nuclear weapons would be ever used again it's a top contender.

True to all of that. The point still remains though, US will need allies in the quest to challenge China and India is absolutely the one. The prime vantage point in Indian Ocean and an economy that can sustain the Navy. India will never to friends with China, due to border dispute and Chinese ambition to keep India confined to South Asia. Pakistan is a threat that will always remain due to their sponsorship of terrorism, but the nuclear angle is overhyped. US understands that and a lot is happening in this specific area of countering China. ASW exercises with all major powers. India has their P8I networked with US centres, and Bell ASW helis have been ordered recently.

Good idea. I'd support lending Bumblebee to Vietnam if his existence can be kept reasonably under wraps. Possibly also some of our Grey tech like the blackout gear and non-newtonian recon craft. And finally I'd like to personally extend a wider, international appeal to Madame Vastra, Jenny Flint, and Strax to make themselves available on call should anything more nefarious be afoot, in the sense that the future of mankind hangs in the balance.

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