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This is a pretty solid breakdown. IRR isn't mathematically valid though. I might take a run at cleaning up this spreadsheet tonight to make it look a little more professional. Need to include things like tax and exit valuations to get to the correct decision.

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There are a few very important caveats that they miss though. Revenue determinants are heavily based on conversations with healthcare payers to determine market size which dramatically effects revenue projections. Most firms that do deep development plan to sell successful drugs and exit as early as possible so transaction costs need to be included in the terminal value, which isn't calculated terribly well in this model.

I'd also use corporate bonds for pharma companies (or biotechs, depending on which you are looking at) for the cost of capital, as ultimately that's what debt costs

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