Over 13% of the homes in Japan are abandoned
flip.it
flip.it
Move the story to California. A three bedroom home in the San Francisco Bay Area, covered by Proposition 13, purchased by ordinary working people with good financial habits, around the 1970 time frame, and a working late-thirties, early forties person with some savings and good financial habits, cannot afford to take the home under almost any circumstances due to property taxes (cost of ownership) and competition for financing (loans not available in practice due to terms).
There is a lot of emotion on both sides of the Pacific in each of these cases. Individuals are quick to point fingers at the other individuals. It has been decades in the making, and the situation is not new. Many on both sides of the Pacific are renting at high prices (no accumulated capital) and deferring (or avoiding) having children.
Congratulations, no pat on the back, just vilification. The fingers now get pointed at you
Our whole fiscal policy is about printing money through home ownership. It’s creating all sorts of bad behaviors.
But that picture ignores demographic shifts and jobs. If you look at the prices of houses relative to jobs available in the area, the picture is much worse.
In small towns and rural areas, there's lots of really cheap houses. In the town I grew up, you can find tolerable houses for sale for $100k. But there are no jobs there. Even at that low price, you're unlikely to be able to afford it at any sort of local wage.
Meanwhile, in the city where I live now, the median home price is $750,000. If you aren't in one of a shrinking number of vital industries like tech, that's also unaffordable. Over the years, I've watched friend after friend get priced out of the city.
The main problem I see is that jobs are moving much faster than physical infrastructure and housing can keep up with.
1. Through life circumstances, they need to move. The most common case is when they have kids and need a bigger home, but sometimes they need/want to move closer to a new job elsewhere in the city, neighborhoods change in ways they don't like, kids move out and they want to downsize, etc.
2. Property taxes do go up, yes.
3. When real estate goes up, everything else goes up too. People that can afford more expensive homes also generally have more disposable income. So they influence prices in the market and food, restaurants, services, daycare, etc. all get more expensive.
> And can start a new life in a cheaper place - probably getting about same money for the same job - but with whole lot of money in the pocket.
This is a thing, yes. You see older people move away from the city once their kids move out. When your kids are young, it's good to be in a city and stay put so that they can get a good stable school, long-term friends, and access to lots of learning experiences. Once the kids have left, though, that all matters less.
But there is a cost to that. Uprooting and moving means leaving behind friends and familiar places. Diminished friendship among the elderly is one of the causes of suicide and lower life expectancy. It may mean moving farther from their own children.
For example, I live in Seattle. My mother-in-law used to be a twenty minute drive. We spent a lot of time with her and she spent lots of time with her grandkids. Every year, the rent went up on her apartment until she couldn't afford it. She moved out to the country. It's a beautiful house, but it's an hour away, so we see her much less often, and that's a real loss to all of us.
> Why should we feel sorry for them?
I think that's a shallow way to look at it. We should empathize with them, with both the good and bad parts of their experience.
Overall, I think it probably is a net win to have cities be mostly oriented towards professionals and parents and that it helps balance the demographic distribution of people in the US to have older people move to rural areas. But there are downsides too.
https://resources.realestate.co.jp/buy/guide-to-japanese-rea...
edit: I do agree there are some common property taxes globally, but they're just a few hundred or at most 1-2k a year, not like 1-2% in some of the US states (and Japan) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_tax
This tax thing is an issue for people with multiple homes. Considering the set of people that concerns I wouldn’t cry too much over it
production - rent = wages + interest
when productivity grows but wages do not, that means the marginal contribution of any new worker is being entirely eaten by various forms of rent within the economy. Those who collect rent have no incentive to do anything but perpetuate their rent collection and most likely if they were to re invest their gains would probably reinvest them in either acquiring more rent or protecting their existing rent... which is why the government should be funded off of monopoly/pigovian taxes like the land value tax, or removing intellectual property deductions from the corp income tax, as opposed to income or consumption taxes - a philosophy known as georgism.
An example of rent-seeking would be if I were a steel producer and I ask the government to impose a tariff on imported steel.
C.f. also NIMBYism.
2. You have literally just described the stock market.
2. The stock market is exactly people trying to get rich without adding any value to the world.
2. I'm not going to get bogged down refuting bad analogies here.
Renting property is not rent-seeking. Wielding the power of local government to prevent new housing from being built is rent-seeking.
(I swear, the Kantian Categorical Imperative should be taught in high school just for its entertainment value.)
The business of buying and selling houses on the flip isn't particularly bad (though it's often predatory and rent seekish) but hoarding property to either rent or just squat to take advantage of the appreciation said hoarding does to drive up prices is evil. Especially when you consider how the entire perverse and unsustainable economic model of endlessly and perpetually rising property values against inflation causes substantive suffering while governments will bend over to preserve it since the landlords are the wealthy interests they want to appease to stay in power.
There are much less amoral, much more productive, and much less predatory ways to grow wealth. Whenever anyone looks at residential property as an infinite profit machine it is a failure of the society to produce productive & positive investment options for that wealth.
Localities with an abundance of cheap housing tend to have significantly higher unemployment rates[1],
[1] https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/employment-rese...
I see no reason why humanity must crowd trample each other in tiny metropolitan areas when there are so many affordable -- and likely more beautiful -- places to live in.
Have basic infrastructure in place, internet excluded, and the problem is solved.
I am also seriously not okay with the implication that the cities support all other areas. That's extremely questionable.
Lastly, don't forget there have been studies proving fat is bad and sugar is good. Never discount the vested interests that know how to convince people. Apparently you have been influenced by a study.
Not saying you shouldn't believe anything, but maintain a healthy skepticism, please.
I live in the only true big city in my country and truthfully, people are in general happier everywhere else in the country. At least they say so and sound like it.
It kind of makes sense. If 10% of the surface area needs 90% of the resources, they are going to be easier to provide than for the remaining 90% of the area (mainly because spreading things like doctors, hospitals and supermarkets around to serve a few hundred people is not easy).
This is an incredibly disingenuous argument. You use "must" as if the opposing side is the one forcing people to live a certain way, but it's actually your side that pushes for strong regulations limiting population density even when people do want to live in a big city.
Nobody's suggesting banning living in rural areas or small towns. But regulations as they currently exist work to push people from living in big metros where the good jobs are. That's not the market, that's incumbents using government power to dictate lifestyles for their neighbors and potential immigrants.
As a resident of a country that only has one big city -- the capital -- I see this all the time: people just have no future elsewhere and come here even though they sacrifice quite a lot and the overall gain might not outpace all the negatives.
Not sure what's the way out, to be honest.
And I don't think big cities have to be bad to live in. Vienna gets extremely high livability marks despite being the one big city Austria has. I currently live in Munich, and though our yard here is very small compared to the US standard, having a couple of parks within a block and a half (+ other nearby green space) makes up for it, even with a kid.
Sofia isn't anything special but it has quite beautiful neighborhoods which are of course quite expensive to live in.
Back yard? You only have that if you live in villages with like 2000 people. Our capital is so crowded that the real estate agents feel really proud to advertise 68m2 apartments with two small rooms and a tiny kitchen, it's that bad. Good views? Forget about it.
(I am considering moving out of Bulgaria to Vienna/Austria exactly by the way; but I'm for the moment too scared to do it.)
Having your own backyard is definitely a luxury in Munich, we have one because we're kind of at the outskirts and Google pays well (and as I said, it's quite small), but it's very common here at least for regular people to live in small apartment buildings (like 8-12 units) with a decent sized shared backyard. Especially if they're in a suburb of Munich, which still lets them access the job market there of course.
As opposed to? People trying to force a change to the lifestyle of people already there in favor of their neighbors and potential newcomer? I mean, if you build a skyscrapper across the street, it will change people's lifestyle quite a bit...
It's a pick your poison situation, and it doesn't have to be. Singapore and Vienna are good examples of public housing programs, Tokyo is a good example of the market providing reasonable rent relative to how desirable/big/rich the area is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Q8pf-Ad0w0
Not sure how his actions are evil or rent-seeking in any way.
Using it as an investment doesn't deprive others from using it. Using it as an investment means renting the property out to earn investment income on it.
And investing leads to that scarce resource becoming less scarce, through construction and expansion of housing supply.
Capital leads to abundance. Combating capital investments in housing leads to more housing scarcity. That's exactly what zoning restrictions and rent control do, and why some places have housing scarcity.
Vacant property is being wasted. Not too much of that, though.
Morally speaking, a housing market has much in common with a traffic jam or a crowded bus. Everyone takes up space, though some more than others. If you're living somewhere that housing is scarce, you're a small part of the problem, according to the space you take up. The only way to not be part of the problem is to move away.
It doesn't make sense to pick on some of the people in a crowd for making it crowded, assuming they're all taking a similar amount of space.
Land ownership = people give you rights for exclusive use. So you pay them for the privilege
Property tax = another form of income or labor tax. Somebody put effort and energy into the building, proportion of which is taken away
Housing as an investment does not benefit society.
There simply isn't enough housing within the economic zone that jobs exist in; this needs to be fixed.
If any other basic need rose so much above inflation no one would consider it a positive for society.
Curious: your tax is 1.7% of what? Fair market value? Some official valuation?
Rent is expensive because both parents are working allowing price to go up.
Because parents wait longer. Their earnings are higher. Allowing daycare Costs to increase.
Tldr it's a vicious circle
(Quebec/Canada has a mix of semi-state-owned daycare, which are great, but few, and subsidized private daycare, which aren't as good, but usually not that bad)
Japan is a social laboratory for the west and we see similar phenomena in the west these days.
This correlates pretty well with my experience. Even in Tokyo, prices are not that high (compared to London or Sydney, for instance -- and nowhere near SV). Because there is a good train service, it's also very reasonable to live in the countryside and commute to work. Even if you work in Tokyo, it is very easy to live in Chiba , Saitama or Kanagawa. Admittedly I really live in the countryside but my monthly rent is just 66,000 yen ($591 US as of today) per month for a modern 2 bedroom apartment with galley kitchen, living room, balcony and 2 parking spaces. Used 3 bedroom houses routinely go for $100-150K in this area, with fixer-uppers being under $100K. Most of Japan is not expensive for rent.
Cost of living is higher than the US and salaries are lower, but people tend to be more frugal too. Also, children often live with their parents until they get married (late 20's to early 30's).
IMHO, the reason for the low fertility is that young men in Japan have to get their career going and work very hard right out of school. Women, on the other hand tend not to have those kinds of career aspirations (for better or for worse). They usually intend to get married and have kids. Young women tend to view their 20's as their time to be free and they often travel (a lot!).
Usually young women are fairly well off because they live with their parents. Even though they tend to contribute to the family income, the shared cost of living is quite a bit lower than if they lived alone. They work in factories, or in offices and don't really have a lot of responsibilities. They tend to put off getting married as long as possible because after they are married, they often have to quit their jobs and concentrate on running the household.
The average age of marriage in Japan is 30.1 years old, according to Wikipedia. The average age in the US is 28.2. Young people in Japan also don't tend to live together before marriage, while US couples tend to live together for 2-4 years before getting married (I couldn't get good stats, but it seems like 1-2 years before getting engaged and 1-2 years after getting engaged based on various google searches).
Because people in Japan do not live together before marriage, they are less likely to have children before marriage. This resource [3] shows an interesting statistic: The average woman has their first child at 30.7 years old, while the average US woman has their first child at 26.3 years old.
In my mind, this is really the difference in fertility rates. Women in Japan are trying to put off getting married and having a family, while Americans are not.
[1] - https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?cou...
[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_at_fi...
[3] - https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-average-age-to-have-a...
I'm gonna have to go look up surveys on why women don't marry now
The talking points always assume that fundamental human tasks like raising a family is infinitely more despicable than working as a drone in a corporation. I'm amused that the powers that be push the story that doing what is often a pointless chore, often for mere survival in contemporary times, is somehow 'more fulfilling' than the above.
This is not entirely surprising, since family has essentially become nationalized, while state is being privatised. Orwell's world will probably come into existence due more to reasons that far more insipid and glacial in its accumulation, than those 'big bang' events like terrorism. The latter no doubt are setting up crucial infrastructure for these, but the social aspect is has a much larger time constant.
This is not to say that I don't understand the risks of giving up an early industrial career in order to run a household, but I've got to say that I think an enlightened society should find a way to make that a viable option: no matter what your gender is.
California actually has ways to inherit not only the home of your parents and grandparents, but also their tax rate.
There's some broader legal commentary, which I'm not properly equipped to evaluate, here: https://krasalaw.com/lawyer/2010/08/24/Estate-Planning/Maint...
The entire prop 13 + zoning + property value situation is terrible, it's a total pyramid scheme: older generations get wealthy through wealth transfers from the younger generation from inflating property values. But it can only work once or twice before the property values are so comically high that even high income DINK couples can't afford to buy in.
It makes a hell of a lot more sense for FAANG to open offices somewhere else.
Right now two different families living in identical properties in CA can be paying vastly different property taxes depending on when they bought (or inherited) their house. This is manifestly unfair.
I doubt we'd have any workers paid through property taxes if we were paying like it's 1955.
Cities don't usually have a profit motive, can you name cities in booming areas that you think are 'extorting' money and wasting it?
My house being more expensive than next door's doesn't mean Im a bigger burden on the city. The only reason it kinds of sortoff make sense is as a proxy to income.
So why not just have everyone pay taxes based on residency (those who get to vote and receives city services), like we do for federal/state taxes? And if someone owns property and don't live there (investment), then their burden should be from it being an investment and be kind of unrelated.
Only (albeit significant) hiccup is maintenance of the property and the responsibility of the owner via the city.
But in a high demand area with constrained supply, it's more of a supply & demand model: landlords charge what the market will bear, which is mostly based on how many people there are around with decent/high-paying jobs. Prices haven't risen rapidly in recent years because the actual cost of building housing rapidly increased, obviously.
So using the latter model, increased property taxes probably wouldn't have much impact on rent prices.
The other poster explained it better than me, but basically it's too indirect. A renter sees rent go up, but not always why it goes up. We had that happened in our city, where people voted for an exceptional tax increase, which immediately got passed down in rent increases, and then people complained about -that-, not making the obvious link.
You can sensibly critique Proposition 13, but calling it "feudalism" is nonsense. It's the opposite, it's basically carving out a limited exemption in a partially feudal system for some citizens over others. Is it dumb? Sure, unequal? Definitely. But it's not "feudal", it's making the system less so.
It was never a requirement of feudalism that a land owner had 100% control over their land. Most feudal lords had a greater lord that expected tribute and support during war. In this metaphor land owners would be the lesser lords, not the king.
I've seen the counterpoint sentiment in this thread described as "right to place". Some have a deep instinct to want to stay where they grew up and continue to build it. Maybe we should find a way to support that dream as well as the needs of people moving from outside to take advantage of the growth produced by their predecessors, instead of vilifying anybody who has something we want.
Otherwise you end up with an entirely transient population with little sense of ownership, responsibility, or community.
In California, it's all properties. Regardless of purpose. You can inherit dear old dad's office building and its tax assessment.
Out of my high school class, people who stuck around are actually somewhat uncommon. I mean, there's obviously still more there than any single other metro, but surprise surprise, most have moved somewhere much cheaper.
With saner density/zoning regulations, rents would be low enough to where more would have been able to stick around. Instead, very few have.
The current setup benefits homeowners who get in early. Their kids may well eventually benefit by inheriting that house, but in the meantime they've probably lived at least a few decades as adults elsewhere.
You can own a dog, but that doesn't mean you're allowed to beat your dog. And if you beat your dog, the state may well come in and take it away (and also jail you).
Taxes are less intrusive than say being press ganged to spread asphalt on I80 at 2am for a couple of weeks.
At least for me.
- The owner of land owns it outright. If you own land, you don't pay taxes on it to anyone. It's yours.
- Ownership of land is inalienable. Your land is yours, and you can't sell it or otherwise transfer ownership (except through inheritance).
- Land generates revenue through the collection of dues from peasants who would like to work it.
- The feudal dues associated with a stretch of land are fixed by tradition and, like the ownership of the land, can't be changed. This is why European peasant reform movements emphasized stable measurement units so heavily -- since lords couldn't change the nominal amount of feudal dues, changes were actually implemented by messing with the size of the units those dues were measured in.
- The king has no tax authority. He gets his revenue from the land he owns, just like every other noble does.
It is a radically decentralized system, even for the rest of the world at the time, and it reflects the very low level of societal development in feudal Europe.
The US property tax system is nothing like this. The government owns ALL the land, and no one else can ever own any. The government has tax authority over the land and many other things.
The proposition 13 system does look like it's trying to move things in the direction of feudalism, as far as I can see. It's even trying to make sure land can't be sold, in that when you sell your land, all the tax benefits are lost.
Just a quibble, but, with the exception of federal lands, it's the individual states that levy property tax in their territory. Allodial title is what it's called when you have no obligations on the property. Nevada allowed limited allodial title, but it only lasts for the life of the owner. The way the implemented it was they computed an estimated total property tax and the owner would buy out the state's interest for his lifetime[1]. It actually provides additional privileges besides property tax exemption. Liens can't be enforced on an allodium, among other privileges.
For having "no obligations on the property", those are some pretty substantial obligations.
Generally, nobles held land under "feudal tenure" and not "allodial tenure" (the latter is "outright" ownership). Under feudal tenure, the noble did not owe taxes but they did owe "service" which they could try to make up with goods and money instead.
The service was onerous. Generally, showing up with a sword and shield and an army fitting your station.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feudalism_in_England#Varieties...
Along with the main service there could be many more specific services. One example of many: in the present day, there is a noble family in England that is required to set out three glasses of Brandy or Cognac or another strong spirit on a certain holiday, so that the reigning monarch may come by and drink them if she so chooses.
Under feudalism is actually when legal systems began to recognise allodial title as such. To the old fashioned kings, "land to which you have an absolute title" was just "land I haven't conquered yet".
When people talk about feudalism here, what they probably are referencing is the defacto inalienability of property under feudalism, and the consequent emergence of a small landed class who enjoyed revenues from a large labouring class.
The inalienability and concentration was not due to one law or institution, but typically several together. Some wills outright forbade the inheritor to sell any of the property, if they accepted the inheritance. In some parts of Europe, all of the property was inherited by one son -- primogeniture -- tending to concentration.
It was never the case under feudalism that there was no way to move into the landowning class -- some families moved in and some out -- but in practice families with land could very easily retain it. This changed only with the emergence of widespread trade and then industrialism, because these introduced much better ways to generate revenue from labor and led to a situation that might seem bizarre to us: poor gentry with vast landholdings and no money, and no way to generate revenue from the land since they couldn't invest in it, and no way to get outside investors because it was always "heads I win, tails you lose" when it came to collecting on the only asset of value the gentry had, the land.
What California is doing really is feudal, in the sense of encouraging the concentration of landholdings in a semi-permanent group of families.
This history lesson really falls apart when you consider what preceded feudalism for the average person in medieval Europe, or what happened in parallel in other societies outside of Europe that never experienced feudalism.
In both cases it was the norm in agrarian societies that farmsteads would be owned by the same family for generations. Re-establishing that is the main effect of Proposition 13.
What legal situation in Europe or elsewhere are you actually describing? Many agrarian societies were imperial. Pre-feudal Europe involved a mix of Roman institutions and tribal institutions, and tribal societies generally have a vague concept of land ownership. Maybe you’re thinking about the Old West?
Those homeowners seem to have a majority in the area. Seems moronic to run a trillion dollar company at odds with the local government.
NYC has an income tax. I bet SF will have one within 5 years.
Why? What entitles someone to being in a certain location?
Also you get paid an enormous amount of money to move when the property value gets so high that you can't pay the percentage in taxes.
Go buy three houses somewhere else and don't pretend you're oppressed.
If we were regularly pushing people out with huge paydays, and then putting in denser housing, they'd be able to afford to move right back in with the only downside being a smaller yard to offset their pile of cash. And people that didn't win the housing lottery would be able to move in too.
For inheritances, you re-assess and consider it a sale. If the price went up lots, the kids can pay the tax and keep it, or they can sell the property and pay off the taxes.
But governments that try to get between families will end up on the loosing end. What inevitably happens is that the rich get loopholes and the middle class pays. At least in California everyone gets the same deal.
If you can get all the Google engineers to go on strike unless Mountain View agrees to build 50,000 homes, it will be done over night.
I'm not trying to explain housing prices here. I'm talking about the innate behaviour of Prop 13.
If your taxes go up like crazy because property value increase, are you out of luck (like most other places), or do you get to keep a lower tax rate? Because I'll admit, being kicked out of the house you bought because rates skyrocketed and all of a sudden you can't afford it anymore kind of sucks. I live on the east coast, and just 2 years after I bought a place, my taxes basically doubled. I'm privileged enough that I was able to absorb it, but most people wouldn't be able to. Coupled with a bunch of heavy repairs I had to do shortly after getting the place, plus realtor fees, most people wouldn't even have been able to afford selling it, either. So bankruptcy they'd have gone.
One could say you should be sure you can absorb these hikes before you buy, but these are spikes that someone somewhere in city hall signed off on, not some kind of unpredictable random bad luck (the tax hike, not the repairs)
> It makes a hell of a lot more sense for FAANG to open offices somewhere else.
Network/ecosystem effects are a natural part of economies and businesses. Why don't we leave it more up to businesses to decide where to hire?
Besides, the current setup is manifestly harmful to any non-homeowners and recent homeowners as it is. Why support a system that strains budgets, kicks out the poor and renters, hurts the environment, and forces long commutes?
It's even got the limits you suggest baked in - only residential, only primary residences, requires high equity ratio, etc.
I think a simpler solution would just be: you may choose to lock in a lower/earlier assessed property value for the purposes of property taxes, with the caveat that the state gets right of first refusal at the assessed value when you decide to sell.
Bam! One and done. Grants flexibility, too; each household can decide whether to treat their house as an investment or as a home, but not both.
At that point the state has the ability to get their money from any future sale without the extra complexity of having to own the property.
The cumulative effect of prop 13 has been to create a landed aristocracy in California cities who have millions of dollars in real estate and pay almost nothing on it purely because of who their parents were. This situation is even worse when the real estate is rentable, and the owners can collect 2019 rent and pay 1970 tax rates.
I can't think of a single major economic center that has affordable housing now.
That's what makes them major economic centers: real estate prices. The building, renovation, redevelopment, renting and investing of real estate ... that a massive part of the the modern economy. Think Vancouver makes its money on tourism or lumber? Fishing? It is all down to industry that is perpetually-increasing land values.
High real estate prices is just rent-collection by landlords.
Vancouver is an outlier that makes its money as a destination for laundered international money. The other economic centers actually produce, and export useful goods.
High rent collection is a symptom of high demand for an asset. If the land wasn’t valuable, the rent wouldn’t be high!
But the argument that “place X is an economic engine but should still be cheap” is wildly unrealistic.
Or married to someone twiddling atoms, or needing to support someone twiddling atoms, or married to someone who needs to support someone twiddling atoms... Or have such level of arrogance and greeds (:gasp:) as to want to be near a family member who needs to twiddle atoms... Or if you're straight up greedy and don't want to live in the middle of nowhere.
Yes, but they could certainly be made cheap-er. The bay area's weather and economic success guarantee that it'll be at least moderately expensive, but that it's absurdly expensive is because of bad policy.
Vienna can be cheap to live in because a large percentage of the housing is the social/public kind.
And there is choice! I could live 15 min away from where I live and save 30% of my rent. But I love the place where I live! (and I don't need to travel anywhere, just walk. So worth the money).
One can vary the size / location / age of the building and fight something. Tokyo is so amazing due to mixed-use zoning. Apartments, restaurants, shops, office buildings. All tastefully mixed together.
Also the food is so much cheaper. I can get a great, tasty and healthy (-enough) lunch in Tokyo for $10. Same food/quality would cost me $20 in US.
Bay Area is terrible. Pay through the roof to live in the middle of nowhere and spend hours every day in traffic.
It's just the newcomers and perpetually poor who suffer the economic effects.
But, hey, the weather is nice and I don't see many "no gaijin" signs here. Would be weird since we're closing in on 40% foreign born after all.
Maybe it helps that I don't read Japanese :P
> or inherited
Sadly I failed to inherit property in major metropolitan area :( I suppose I tried?
Regarding prices I was thinking about rent actually. Owning a house in Bay Area is not something that pops into my mind in most circumstances!
Don't disagree, but it's also true that compensation at least for programmers is vastly higher in the bay area than Tokyo. Like 3x higher, maybe even more than that.
https://www.redfin.com/NY/Corona/112-50-Northern-Blvd-11368/...
In the Bay Area it's expensive near job centers but it's still expensive 40 miles away.
Of course, it quickly became the new normal. Now getting rid of it is the third rail of California politics.
So a real estate bubble hits, home owners are hurt, and the government gets used to what they think is the new normal. The government takes on wasteful obligations, hiring lots of people and failing to push back on pension demands. Once the bubble pops, the city budget is in deep trouble. Something must be cut. It isn't easy to lay off employees and cut back the pensions, so the city increases the tax rate.
Repeat that again with a new bubble, again and again, and the rates only go up. It's a ratchet effect, with rates going up but never down.
Voters chose a simplistic way to put a stop to this problem. Something was needed, but the chosen solution is pretty bad. The fact that people can't trade houses without seeing rate increases means that people commute too far, clogging up the roads. Newcomers also get hit, with cities imposing huge impact fees and generally discouraging housing because the housing doesn't pay for itself due to Prop 13.
What was really needed was a restriction on the total city budget. Instead of setting a tax rate and then calculating the budget, we could set the budget and then calculate the tax rate. Applying the restriction to the total city budget serves the necessary purpose of putting a stop to out-of-control spending.
Even when they are generous, for current spending (money raised and spent in the same year) it doesn't seem like a long-term problem, because they can cut back later. There's even a sense in which spare capacity in good times makes it easier to find low-priority items to cut back on. If everything is already high-priority, what do you do?
But where the cost is locked in, far in the future, and variable, city governments are clearly not good at planning ahead. I'm in favor of generous retirement benefits, but using a 401k-like plan where all costs to the city are up front. Most newer businesses moved to that long ago.
This all goes sideways when these funds are mismanaged & underfunded, which organizations have an incentive to do as it can be a nice way to juice profits immediately.
Wage theft is shameful in any color, and what has happened to American Pensions is stealing earned wages from workers retirement.
Property taxes are the assessed value scaled to this total. Its possible for the tax to decrease even if the assessed value increases, if the increase is less than the average increase.
This model of taxation doesnt take into account that government gradually provides more new services, like more healthcare etc.
Isn't it? If those workers want to buy houses, or rent, as most do, then it has gone up. And since that is the majority of what people pay. So these workers costs have gone up significantly, with a raise in house prices.
The city budget is not 100% salary. The city may buy water, textbooks, fire engines, fencing, sod, bleachers, asphalt, diesel, and so many other things.
Rent and mortgage payments don't immediately change for all existing workers. The bubble may turn in to a crash, meaning that these workers never face higher housing costs. Workers will normally be spending about 15% to 45% of their income on housing, meaning that most of their costs are unaffected by a housing bubble. Workers buy so many other things: food, computers, gasoline, cars, etc.
So if housing goes up by 50% now, next year the workers might need an extra 20% to maintain lifestyle, and that might mean the city budget needs to go up by 10% next year or the year after. If housing crashes, it could be less.
For my own part, I've found that people are also emotionally attached to the idea of being able to raise their own children in the family home. Anecdotally, people often have trouble with the idea that the retired teacher next door in their house is a multi-millionaire, leading to some people refusing to regard residences as meaningful property.
I'm going to assume it's a reference to my comment about corporate offices and Prop 13. The measure I referred to is one that will end Prop 13 protections on corporate offices. As a result, real flesh people will continue to benefit from Prop 13 and non-people people will not.
That's how it normally goes in this country, so you can probably understand why I was confused.
As for the way it normally goes, both real flesh people and non-people people generally pay taxes on the value of their real property. Which strikes me as, on the whole, reasonably fair and equitable. California has decided that nobody should have to, provided they've had that real property long enough. The change going to voters would leave real flesh people exempt(-ish).
On the one hand, having corporations pay actual taxes will help state and local governments uncouple their budgets from the stock market some. On the other hand, there's already a problem where cities are incentivized to permit offices over housing, and this seems likely to make that worse...
I agree with some forms of property taxation, for the record, but think that single family owner-occupied homes should be tax free.
The taxes you must pay, the insurance on the property, and the upkeep for maintenance (amortized roofing expenses/AC units etc).
I have family members that are ecstatic when their property value increases, because they love the idea of being people who live in a very valuable home.
But this is the only home that they have. And then their taxes go up. In order to cash out their "investment" they have to move. Which means, if they don't rent, buying back into the same over-inflated market. It's a wash, and the only thing that changes is the amount of money they are paying in taxes.
This is curious. Could you share some numbers? I thought the financing wouldn't be an issue due to incredibly low interest rates.
Japans as a whole is losing population but Tokyo is increasing.
And even smaller cities are losing population much slower than their rural surroundings e.g. Wakayama mentioned in the article shrank by 10% (population wise) between the 2000 and 2015 census, but Wakayama-chi "only" shrank by 6% while rural Kushimoto-cho shrank by 23%, Susami-cho by 30%.
I read this
> However, akiya owners are taxed more for empty plots of land than for having an empty property, according to real estate expert Toshihiko Yamamoto. This is a deterrent to razing a vacant home.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/05/asia/japan-vacant-akiya-ghost...
If true, this would go a long way toward explaining the 13% figure.
https://en.sekaiproperty.com/search/japan/wakayama
In my experience, when looking at real estate in Japan, going to a local agent is really the best bet.
if 99%-100% of homes were occupied then it would reach saturation (hard to buy/rent homes)
Many small towns will give houses basically for free in exchange for people moving in and fixing them to stay long term :
Governments should stop thinking about population and gdp growth as a necessity. This is harmful when we're dealing with a planet with limited resources.
- The population shrinks but density in the cities still increases -> decreased land utilisation/abandoned villages. - Decreasing birth rate -> inverted population cone/less taxes and more high cost individuals (old people with health problems and no income)
Its not really a matter of size as it is of quality. I personally wouldn't mind a lot more genius rocket scientist supermodels being born. Our best chance to stave off extinction is not to bury our heads in the sand and hope we last on this one rock but to expand. Growth is not in itself the evil, limited resources is and that is what should be tackled. If humanity had limited itself to the size that some people think is sensible from the very beginning you wouldn't be enjoying the comforts like your room and fancy computer that you are now.
I had to share a room growing up, so half my time was spent watching TV in the living room. My parents wouldn't let me turn the TV off, as they were watching it or listening to it. Mind-numbing.
I had to share a house at university. My housemates wanted to drink and play games and listen to loud music all day. Also not good.
Seems likely that it's an outlier in this case.
The intention was undoubtedly to say that Japan's abandonment rate has gotten so high that it's comparable to a disaster stricken city.