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Comment by smackay | Hacker News Reader

There's a very good reason why seabirds in general are long-lived. Breeding failures are common. Arctic Terns in Shetland, Scotland basically did not raise any chicks for 10 years due to food shortages, probably due to overfishing for sandeels, their main prey (sorry don't have a reference).

Emperor penguins have an expected lifespan of 20 years, with some birds living as long as 50 years. Breeding starts when the birds are 4-5 years old. Losing one breeding attempt is not that big a deal - despite all the apparent "OMG, think of the penguins". If this event becomes more common as a result of climate change then that is another matter.

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I spend summers in a seagull rookery on a small island, about 2000 adult birds. Each pair averages about two young. A few years ago when the young were hatched but still tiny, puffy balls with legs there was a strong wind for two days. One by one the chicks lost their balance, tumbled away across the island and blew into the cold water. It was nearly a 100% wipe of the young. But the birds live many years, and 1 young per adult per year is unsustainable, so they have to get eaten or die somehow. It just feels horrible to see all of a year’s young go at once.

That sounds fascinating! Can you say a bit more about what kind of work you do there? How long have you been going there? Where is it?

> There's a very good reason why seabirds in general are long-lived.

> probably due to overfishing for sandeels, their main prey

It's interesting that you point to an evolutionary fix (longevity to compensate for frequent breeding failures) for a problem caused by humans (overfishing). To me it seems more likely that if the population was at relative equilibrium for the past 100k years (seems like a reasonable assumption), then any steady increase in the number of breeding failures is a huge problem. Population dynamics are complex though, I'm not claiming to be an expert.

The actual cause is secondary to my point, be it overfishing, anthropomorphic global warming, plastic pollution, etc.

Nitpick: I doubt that populations of anything have been at a steady state in Shetland (or anywhere nearby) for more than 12,000 years or so.

Because it was a glacier during the ice age, for those who didn't get the reference.

While I agree with the main thrust of your point, there have always been boom and bust cycles in nature with no humans involved. Good years lead to overbreeding which leads to food shortages which leads to famine. Animals are capable of overusing their natural resources too, humans are just more efficient at it.

I think the main problem is we compete for these resources with them. And in many ways jam the ecosystem from reaching equilibrium so the bad years become more frequent and are not followed by good years at the same rate. I watched the matrix when I was too young to understand much. But when I watched it a few years later it just hit me and this quote of Agent Smith has stayed on my mind "I'd like to share a revelation that I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species and I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area"

All prey populations will crash every now and then, humans or none.

> Losing one breeding attempt is not that big a deal - despite all the apparent "OMG, think of the penguins". If this event becomes more common as a result of climate change then that is another matter.

The article literally says this event will become more common due to warming and that 50-70% of the species will die off by the end of the century.

Obviously the birds aren’t considered conscious... But it seems the same could be said about humans. “They have a long time to breed.. eh whatever”...

Think about the generation of missing women in China as a result of the single-child policy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missing_women_of_China

The millions of unwed military-aged Chinese men that could be seen as economically expendable has always made me nervous.

>Obviously the birds aren’t considered conscious

That might not be as obvious as you think. There are studies demonstrating that the parts of the brain that demonstrate consciousness in mammals, evolved before mammal and avian evolution split. With other features co-evolving later on as well.

Some birds are considered sentient now, and as more studies are performed, more and more animals are added to that list. First it was just humans, then all apes, oh and dogs, plus pigs, turns out dolphins too, and parrots, and corvids, etc. etc. etc.

At this point I'd be more surprised if they weren't conscious.

> But it seems the same could be said about humans. “They have a long time to breed.. eh whatever”...

Pretty much what happens in humans when there's no contraception and therefore a new kid every ~year and less food than needed to feed everybody.

Which describes most of humanity's history. Particular care for children and the concepts of childhood and parenting are a rather new phenomenon.

You're crazy if you don't think Crows are conscious.

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