Gold worth billions smuggled out of Africa
reuters.com
reuters.com
The UAE is laundering dirty gold, cleaning it, and reselling it to China and India. Western buyers tend to stay away from UAE gold because Emirati refineries aren't accredited, but the Chinese and Indian don't care as much. This is good business for the UAE as they become the hub for gold laundering, and can make a hefty profit getting gold at a discount and reselling it at spot prices.
This is really at the expense of Switzerland, which is currently the world center for gold refining. They import raw materials, refine and purify it, and export the finished products to industry, jewelers, and investors. If you've ever bought a gold bullion bar (whether 1oz or 1kg), you'll usually notice it's in an assay and branded either "Valcambi" or "PAMP," both of which are large Swiss gold refiners.
Edit: Since 2016 UAE is on the first place but the article mentions Chinese ventures being slapped on the wrist for bad business practices.
Could it be China underreported their gold imports.?
Do Western buyers even buy gold like indians do? Most of Indian buys 22k jewelry. In India, no one knows about accridated. Indians love UAE gold. Lot of indians from USA fly through Emirates just to buy gold from UAE. Indians thinks that UAE gold is more pure than what they can get in USA or India.
Since about 2-3 decades, apart from use in jewellery, gold has been at best an 'alternative asset class' here. Unless of course one needs to hide cash income from the tax man.
Go check out an actual market for this type of gold some time, it’s eye opening.
With that said it’s still a lot of gold in that photo, to be fair.
But for mainly cultural reasons Indians still invest huge amounts in Gold, and the opportunity cost is significant.
Here is the ratio of gold price to Dow Jones index for last 100 years [0]. Let's say that every 5 years starting in 1915 you had a choice of investing in gold or US stocks for 50 years. Here's the relative outcome for each of your investments for each period:
From Date Dow/Gold To Date Dow/Gold Ratio
Feb 1915: 2.86 Jan 1965: 25.57 8.94
Feb 1920: 4.42 Feb 1970: 21.27 4.81
Jan 1925: 5.95 Jan 1975: 3.99 0.67
Feb 1930: 13.10 Feb 1980: 1.30 0.10
Jan 1935: 2.91 Feb 1985: 4.30 1.48
Jan 1940: 4.27 Jan 1990: 6.31 1.48
Feb 1945: 4.58 Feb 1995: 10.65 2.33
Jan 1950: 5.77 Feb 2000: 33.78 5.85
Feb 1955: 11.66 Jan 2005: 24.74 2.12
Feb 1960: 17.85 Feb 2010: 9.32 0.52
Jan 1965: 25.57 Jan 2015: 13.62 0.53
Apr 1969: 22.69 Mar 2019: 20.08 0.88
Now (8.94 * 4.81 * 0.67 * ... ) ^ (1/12) = 1.37So using the past as a guide, for any given 50-year period you could reasonably expect that US stock prices will on average outperform gold by around 37%. But stocks also pay dividends. Let's say the after-tax dividend payment is 1.5% per year - that's a multiple of 2.1 in 50 years. So total return on stocks will outperform gold by a factor of 2.88 over those 50 years. (And that's without the risk of having gold stolen from under your mattress).
[0] http://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-h...
Gold is cheaper in UAE than in India. That's why there are smuggler rings that give people(migrant workers) free tickets in exchange for carrying gold(that is within legally permissible limit), as human mule[0]. In some instances, they dupe migrant workers into carrying them[1].
[0] https://www.theblaze.com/news/2013/12/24/the-clever-way-almo...
[1]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/migrant-w...
"Rajesh Exports has, through its fully-owned subsidiary in Singapore, fully acquired European Gold Refineries, the 100 per cent holding company of Valcambi, in an all-cash deal of $400 million (around Rs.2,560 crore)."
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/rajesh-exports-bu...
[just nitpicking]
South African here. When you say UAE ... well ... do you mean African despots, their cronies, henchmen and accomplices? Because that is what is happening: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/03/how-the-gupta-brothe...
Should UAE crack down on it? Sure, why not.
Should we be clear that Africans are fucking over Africans and that it is not some external oppressing force that is to blame. Also yes.
I understand your frustration. I have a (white) South African friend that feels the same, and when he says that to people, most of the time the first answer is "it's due to what the white men did". This of course enforces even more the idea that someone else is to blame...
Let's take the DRC since the article is about them. When King Leopold claimed the Congo Free State, he introduced a regime where atrocities were common-place. It was infamous even by colonial standards. When it became the Belgian Congo (1908), the worst crimes stopped, but racism/segregation and forced labor were still commonplace. After independence (1960), they elected president Lumumba. Looking for international help to stabilize the new country, Lumumba was turned away by the US, but got an agreement from the USSR to provide aid. Upon hearing this, the US set up an embargo to prevent Congo from receiving any of the arms and then supported a coup by Mobuto which led to Lumumba's murder. Mobuto, supported by the anti-USSR powers, made himself fabulously rich and ran the economy and government of the DRC (one of the most resource rich countries on earth) into the gutter. In 1997 Kabila's rebellion pushed out Mobuto and there has been war and rebellions for the better part of the past 22 years. Given its rich resources and poor government control, other nearby African nations have encouraged the conflict so that they are able to profit from the resources (most notably minerals into Uganda and Rwanda). The DRC never even had a chance to establish a good government
Everyone is responsible for their actions and history isn't an excuse, but it's pretty easy to see how a history of resource exploitation and human rights abuse encouraged by western powers has led directly to a country full of resource exploitation and human rights abuse. African colonies are not ancient history.
A dysfunctional legal market leads black markets to flourish, as miners need some way to sell their goods, and traders want to profit exporting the gold to foreign countries. This leads to extralegal organizations, like criminal syndicates and mafias, forming to protect illegal producers and connect them to external markets.
And so, to fix this, African countries need to not only crack down on illegal exports but also make it easier for legal entities to enter the industry. The government needs to provide a safe business environment for legal producers. That will cause illegal producers to naturally decline, as efficient legal production will lower costs.
Of course, this is easier said than done. Structural reform of corrupt kleptocracies is incredibly difficult. But without top-down reform, restricting illegal exports will accomplish very little beyond worsening poverty.
I often see this sentiment about African nations but I almost never see thought beyond this into the root causes. If the speaker is being charitable to the subject, it's simply accepted as the way things are. If they aren't, it veers into a justification of Western superiority or African inferiority (two sides of the same coin).
Basically, if the foundations for a nations weath is agriculture or industry it needs widespread infrastructure. However, for centralized resources like oil, very little infrastructure is required and improving the national standard of living is both expensive and dangerous for the ruling party.
PS: South America faces many of the same issues with corruption and political instability.
This is also the type of comment I was talking about.
>very little infrastructure is required
And where did that infrastructure come from? Western colonialism. Where does most of the oil go? Western nations.
You can find examples of the resource curse going back to the spice trade. It’s an issue of trade more than anything else. After all, a tiny kingdom only has so much use for copper or whatnot on it’s own.
There's a large literature on this in political science and development economics. The subject is known as the "resource curse".[0]
This is the type of comment I was talking about, putting the blame on fate. The United States has lots of natural resources, as does China, and many other developed and industrialized nations. These nations got developed and industrialized by exploiting the resources of poorer nations, colonizing them, ruining the existing local governments and economies in order to optimize them for resource extraction, and then leaving abruptly in the middle of the 20th century.
The poorest state in the US is Mississippi. That is the legacy of slavery. The second poorest state is West Virginia, which ironically shares a border with Maryland, the richest in the country. That's not an accident nor a testament to the allegedly poor character of Appalachians as a distinct cultural group separate from the rest of America. That was completely by design, because you can more easily manipulate a group of people if you force them to fight for scraps. That is the legacy of extractive industry in Appalachia. And so the cycle of rural poverty continues. Don't let them fool you with the "Trump Country" narrative or "Hillbilly Elegy".
So, it’s doing well compared to most of the world. The median household income is still $43,469 which is better than say Japan at least in nominal terms.
This is by design.
How many centuries did it take for the transition from feudalism in Europe yet there is this kind of 'magical thinking' when it comes to Africa emerging from centuries of rapacious colonialism and are often independent states for just 50 years to somehow be the mirror image of western states rightaway. How does this work? Without explaining this no discussion on Africa can be serious and sincere.
And ignorance of the incentives for corruption and the history of plunder in these regions by supporting 'strongmen' and opposing forces of empowerment that continues unabated. And this can be easily confirmed by historical record. How come people like Lula and Chavez are demonized with very little to no dissent in the west and their governments destabilized openly when its them who empowered large number of their populations with social policies rather than just supporting a funnel of extraction by western capitalism. How do institutions and democracy emerge in this environment?
Perhaps its best not to have these discussion where simplistic 'explanations' perpetuate a culture of misinformation and prejudice and where the depth to understand the forces at work and historical events is completely absent.
The jewelry dealers in Pakistan who buy gold from the UAE most likely don't care about its origin, whether it's ethically sourced gold, etc. They care about its purity and cost.
I've been to these places and seen the hand fabrication of the jewelry in person. It's a pretty big part of the economy in Pakistan.
The biggest advantage of the West has been in the creation of Institutions that create and moderate financial instruments that are not deadweight like commodities. The Stock Market, index funds etc. are all considered “valid” places to put your financial resources in. These instruments invest in real companies and organizations instead of lying around in a bank.
Unless other countries figure out how to do finance better they won’t be able to create the same dynamism that Western capital markets have.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_states_and_unio...
Gold is something you can see and hold. In countries with 10%+ inflation rates, an investment that returns 4-8% is also different than, for example, a mutual fund in the US that returns 6-8% which is significantly over the US/Canadian inflation rate.
*Ignoring the constant devaluation of money to prop up asset prices.
> not deadweight like commodities.
I find it rather oxymoronic
I do this all the time and don't lose money by any means.
In India there better alternatives but lot people specially older folks stay away from stock markets since there have been big stock market scandals in the past so most just use savings bank account or few govt investment schemes and use gold as an alternative investment which you can sell easily if you have any financial problems later or you can just give it as gift to your daughter/daughter in la w during marriage.
Cool country, wild camping is legal everywhere.
It is a pity more people don't invest in these companies as they tend to be priced at a significant discount to mining companies working in western countries. This is especially acute at the exploration/development stage which makes it hard for them to raise the money to develop new mines.
Or is there a different force at play that I'm not seeing?
Serious mines need an amazing amount of infrustructure and capital - hundreds of millions dollars is typical and often much more. A typical mine employs thousand of locals in what are middle class or better paying jobs - the western run mines are all mechanised - you don't pay $5 day to some local and put them in charge of a $200,000 truck.
Yes the host governments often waste or steal the money, but even with this a huge amount of good is still done. It is the areas of Africa that are not being "exploited" by the West that are the poorest.
The local companies and companies from countries outside the West are still a problem. We should be supporting the good companies and driving out the bad. Unfortunately few investors are willing to do this.
Only if government is not utterly corrupt and doesn't pocket nearly 100% of income from the mine can there be some lasting benefits for the country. Its just a continuation of theft and exploitation that made Europe so rich for last few hundreds of years, albeit with 21st century 'we care' face. Travel a bit in countries that were raped like this, ie Potosi in Bolivia to get full picture of where this sort of business came from.
So while few pocket some average income while the mine lasts, country is stripped blank of its most precious resources... and that is supposed to be something positive? I have somewhat higher moral standards than this to consider these kind of operations at least slightly moral and justifiable.
Instead of pulling down those companies that are making an actually real difference to the people in Africa, what is your solution?
Take a look at the following gold companies that I really like. Gold is easier to deal with the poor logistics of Africa than the base metals which require shipping large volumes of ore.
http://www.westafricanresources.com
https://www.cardinalresources.com.au
The pictures on Tietto's website really show what mining is like in a lot of Africa without western capital.
Tickers for others to save a bit of time:
ASX:RSG ASX:WAF ASX:CDV ASX:TIE
WAF and CDV are both listed on the TSX (Canada) as well.
If you are interested in learning about Australian mining companies then take a look at Hot Copper. Watch out as like most stock internet message boards there is a lot of ramping, but there is also a huge amount of useful information there too. Just make sure to check everything you read yourself.
As an African - what Africa needs is for Africans to stop supporting despots.
Really thinking about it, it’s a need for people to work for the common good. “Rather than voting in the guy who will give me money, I’ll vote in the guy who will make sure everyone has clean water.”
I assume the reason that doesn’t happen is because they tried the 2nd option and it failed.
https://www.libyaobserver.ly/economy/55-tons-libyan-gold-smu...
1 billion dollar worth of gold is 4ft cube. That’s it.
Or for subtlety a single backpack can easily fit a million or two at a liftable weight.
... anything, and see you in hospital, surely?
https://www.google.com/search?q=one+ton+in+kg
:)
Well in India it might be some other metal like Aluminium.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camelford_water_pollution_inci...
1: https://www.macrotrends.net/2541/platinum-prices-vs-gold-pri...
Not quite the same as holding your own gold bar, but £400k cheaper.
I was just pointing out the flaw in the idea that just because some native Africans participated in the foreign colonial exploitation of Africa, it somehow lessens the degree of culpability for the exploitation itself.
I’m not saying arbitrary United States citizens should be criminally punished for indirectly benefiting from the geopolitical arrangement they were born into. Besides the average resident has very little control over these matters, despite nominally living in a democracy.
On the other hand, from an ethical perspective we can’t turn a blind eye to injustice. For example I do feel personally uneasy about the fact that I’m writing this comment on a phone containing coltan and gold that drives the demand for these minerals and funds corruption and conflict in Africa.
Libya was not amazing but the numbers tell a sad story: https://tradingeconomics.com/libya/gdp-per-capita
Gadaffi should have just gone by itself like they did in Egypt and Tunisia. His choice to remain, just like Syria, sentenced his country and the population.
Sounds like UAE is increasingly hedging the dollar with gold.
EDIT: moved explanation it to a top level comment because I thought it more broadly interesting: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19743663