Yeah I guess my idea was more along the thought that as ads get less and less effective that the least efficient methods go first.

It's just something I've always heard other talking about. Although I started to look into it and there is some that believe it doesn't lag or lead that it's directly tied to GDP.

The fate of the ad industry is directly tied to the overall economy, says Brian Wieser, senior analyst at Pivotal Research Group. That means when GDP falls, advertising falls in unison; it's neither a leading indicator before a downturn nor lagging indicator trailing the overall economy's performance, he says. "All of a sudden, a crisis is a good time to reassess all your behavior," Wieser says. "Advertisers scrutinize their budgets much more than they did in the past."

From this article: https://adage.com/article/tech/industry-executives-report-up...

Thanks for spurring me to dig into this a bit more.

(he doesn't know)

Seppin is right I don't know for sure but their are some indicators that you can watch. Bond yield curve inverting is one. Although there are some contrarians that are saying this time is different. The other big signal I look at is employment numbers in areas where raw materials are produced and refined. I've not done much reading on it but I've seen it as a leading indicator. Please take everything I saw with a grain of salt I'm not an economist I just try to keep up.