I think the effectiveness of all of this stuff is way overrated. I have money, I will spend it, but with all the tech in the world the industry still can't put a relevant ad in front of me.
I think the effectiveness of all of this stuff is way overrated. I have money, I will spend it, but with all the tech in the world the industry still can't put a relevant ad in front of me.
It’s been said in other comments, but a lot of advertising is for products which are useless or unpalatable or unhealthy. Just look at how much alcoholic drinks and soda drinks advertise. Maybe we should tax advertising revenue.
My guess is that it is because most ads suck, because a) 90% of all products are crap, and b) good products don't need that many ads.
If somebody comes up with a better whatever, I will probably hear about it, but most new products are not revolutionary enough for that, but they are also not revolutionary enough for me to be interested in them as an ad.
If I was being shown ads for products around my hobbies I would:
1. Definitely discover companies and products I wasn't aware of.
2. Buy stuff I probably didn't need but would be tempted into owning.
The key here is to further define "a sufficiently high degree of accuracy." Sufficiently high degree of accuracy to... do what? Predictions from these models are typically only sufficient to move [INSERT METRIC] in the aggregate, there is no need to be more accurate than that.
For your case: most of these models are noisy and operate over sparse data. That means any individual prediction can be arbitrarily bad, even to the point of complete randomness. The models only need to be marginally more accurate in aggregate than the a priori average prediction for each item without conditioning on any user features.
Your intuition is correct. "Computer algorithms ... can now infer ... your moods, your political beliefs, your sexual orientation and your health" in the context of this article is hyperbole.
For instance, to predict moods you need to source ground truth variables. Users don't normally give this information out for free. Even in the case the user updated their status with "My current mood is x" there is bias you have to account for that is likely prohibitive to the task. People self censor their emotions on the internet. This means sourcing the data in some other way, maybe through a questionnaire. Either way you won't have nearly as much data and the resulting model will likely be much noisier. Modeling the other user features mentioned have similar pitfalls.
The thing about advertisers of dreck is that they don't mind paying to annoy one million uninterested people to get one new customer.