In other words, the gains shown by this model are coming from leverage, not from the underlying asset. Leveraged investments always return more, but with higher risk. That's true in the housing market as well as the stock market.
In other words, the gains shown by this model are coming from leverage, not from the underlying asset. Leveraged investments always return more, but with higher risk. That's true in the housing market as well as the stock market.
That said, I agree with your point in this case that the leverage is the main component of the return, and greatly increases "risk", for some definition of that word. In a non-recourse state where you can default on the mortgage without losing other assets, the risk calculation must also take that into account.
As a concrete example, a number of commercial real estate investors were technically insolvent in 2008-2009, with assets worth less than the balances of the loans used to buy them. They just pursued the 'hear no evil/see no evil/speak no evil' approach and marked to book (what they paid for the asset) until the market recovered. This approach is aided by the multi-year nature of commercial leases, which protects the cash flows needed for debt service (as long as your tenants stay in business).
In aggregate these factors allow professional real estate investors to consistently earn return by taking on a ton of leverage and with it huge but disguised risk. Back to the original point of the article (buying to rent), most retail investors don't necessarily have the float/access to debt to weather that volatility, and their cash flows are more sensitive which compounds that risk.