https://www.businessinsider.com/who-actually-owns-the-stock-...
The stock markets around the world have been propped up by central banks since the financial crisis.
The FED stepped in with a few trillion in QE to save wall street. The ECB implemented their own QE. BoJ also in japan. And even china has stepped in to prop up it's stock market although their stock market is much younger, smaller and less systematically important.
And so the world goes round and round. Historically, printing money and artificially propping up assets doesn't end well, but if everyone is doing it, maybe it'll work out?
I often think the big challenge of economics now is perhaps not managing overall growth but managing sort of "decline" overall with demographic changes. If my theory is right, in 10-15 years after the baby boom generation demography will level out again and we will be back to higher growth.
The idea that GDP growth is the most important metric for the health of a society is not even wrong.
You are a quick thinker my friend. If you figure out how capitalism can work on a shrinking or even steady state economy you will get the Nobel price. No kidding.
With a non debt based currency, capitalism could do just fine in a shrinking economy no?
(Looking forward to more knowledgable people pointing out the inherent flaws in this idea.)
"There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-stat...
Limits to Growth–At our doorstep, but not recognized http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-02-12/limits-to-growt...
Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-...
Galactic-Scale Energy http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-e...
Baby boomers turned 65 this year, the peak retirement there will ever be in the history of the world.
Individuals selling small amounts of stock, each for slightly below midpoint, actually has a much larger negative effect on prices than one large sale at slightly below midpoint does. Think about what the order book looks like over time.
People expect a sudden recession. The ride to the bottom is going to be a-historically long and slow, as retirement accounts unwind contractually slowly, and big institutional investors wait out lower capital gains taxes.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-americans-dow-220...
Also, number of public companies is decreasing, with the bigger players getting bigger and bigger. And finally, I would expect even more international funds to flow in to the large conglomerates as their efficiencies of scale take over.
That is if they actually own their homes. In Japan, large potion of current working generation can't afford to own a land and house. So the real estate is not going to be the largest retirement asset for the most people in Japan.
That and the fact Japanese population is shrinking so there will be less demand for it, I'm wondering the real estate value will continue to raise like it currently is.
Japan's population is shrinking as a whole but still growing in cities (especially Tokyo). You can already get a house in the countryside for free : https://inakanoseikatsu.com/category/不動産物件/無償譲渡（0円）の空き家物件/
I think the real “string” is economic, which is the reason these houses ended up abandoned in the first place. They’re almost entirely in places with fuck all going on.
First of all, you still have to pay to the real estate agent for completing the required transaction regulation. You also have to pay tax on transaction and yearly.
Some house owner actually pay you on transaction for the hope of freeing from above yearly tax cost. They are so desperate to un-own the asset. It has practically no value yet, the tax is calculated like it had a value once upon a time.
You must also know that in Japan, you can't abandon the real estate. Once you own it, you must own it until you transfer it to the other willing to own it. It's not an asset, it's a debt, burden you for the rest of your life.
If you actually purchase these free house and pay the tax and transaction cost, it's not over. Nobody want to rent it. And you can't practically live it. If it does, it won't be sold in zero JPY.
Water, Power and Gas pipe need replacing as well as floors, walls and ceilings too.
If you repair all of these, it's actually cheaper to scrap and build a new house. It will be better by all means, it meets all the recent regulation of anti-earthquake, anti-typhoon building standard. These regulation exists because of the reasons and you don't want to live in a house that doesn't satisfy these regulation for your life.
The land itself has no value. It's located at very inconvenient places. The best case, you have to drive hours just to go to the local store. In most cases, it's located at small island so you have to use ship instead of car.