Comment by kadendogthing | Hacker News Reader

Comment by kadendogthing | Hacker News Reader

Anyone who's done anything sufficiently advanced with computer vision, AI, and cars knows that Musk is full of shit. The things he is promising are at least a decade away. Not 1 year. To put it another way, we're in "staging." We haven't hit production yet. If there's ever enough Tesla's on the road, you're going to start seeing a lot of problems with Tesla's "autopilot." Honestly the cars are fantastic enough without people overstating what autopilot can do.

Furthermore he's been funny with his companies' finances. Between Tesla, Solar City (remember when Tesla bought Solar City, because I do), and the fact that SpaceX needed NASA to bail them out with the falcon heavy should tell you all you need to know about how solid his companies' finances are. Tesla as a company, the forefront of Musk's empire (arguably), is showing signs of business turbulence. Layoffs, benefit slashing, etc.

Now, I don't think he's really tried to scam to anyone, sincerely. He's a businessman who's bit off a bit more than he can chew in the science department in my opinion.

Exactly. He's a car salesman. I work in CV and automotive and the stuff he's saying will be around the corner isn't solved in research with a $100k set of sensors and progress has plateaued. These are "two ton death machines", a direct quote for Elon in the interview, and overstating what these systems can do to customers who don't understand the state of computer vision is morally bankrupt.

> Anyone who's done anything sufficiently advanced with computer vision, AI, and cars knows that Musk is full of shit. The things he is promising are at least a decade away.

Citation needed.

I would like to know the name of the secret genius working at autopilot who knows something the rest of the self-driving industry doesn't.

If Tesla does well with HW3 they'll be able to get Autopilot into 'flashy demo' territory in the not-too-distant-future and that will have the Tesla fans thumping their chests for years to come before it dawns on them that there is actually is a massive gap between going a few miles in traffic and pulling off a couple fancy maneuvers along the way, and a car that can navigate a city safely without a human driver. Nobody knows how wide that gap actually is.

Progress in free-range robotics is inverse exponential, and by that I mean that to drive the error rate down by an order of magnitude, you need to do way more work than was needed to achieve the previous order of magnitude.

We can come back to this in 7 years or so and re-examine just how far off Tesla may be from 'The Tesla Network'. Although I suppose the Tesla Network can just be renting somebody else's Tesla for an afternoon, FSD not necessary, and in that case, any day, right?

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