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Comment by losteric | Hacker News Reader

> we'll have self-sufficient Mars colonies and space colonies in the next few decades. The funding is economics-based this time around rather than taxes and government projects, making it less volatile and less likely to be cancelled

Lunar and asteroid support colonies, sure, but what is the sustainable profit model for Martian colonies?

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I seem to recall that Robert Zubrin's book "The Case for Mars" suggested selling Martian deuterium to Earth. That idea is tied with "mine the Moon for helium 3" as the least plausible business idea that otherwise-smart people can suggest with a straight face.

EDIT: he also shared this idea in articles.

https://space.nss.org/the-promise-of-mars-by-robert-zubrin/

Deuterium, the heavy isotope of hydrogen currently valued at $10,000 per kilogram, is five times more common on Mars than it is on Earth. Deuterium has its applications today, but it is also the basic fuel for fusion reactors, and in the future when such systems come into play as a major foundation of Earth’s energy economy, the market for deuterium will expand greatly.

Martian colonists will be able to use rocket hoppers using locally produced propellants to lift such resources from the Martian surface to Mars’ moon Phobos, where an electromagnetic catapult can be enplaced capable of firing the cargo off to Earth for export. ...

Is it really cheaper to get deuterium from Mars than it is to refine it from water on Earth?

No.

Fossils. Should go for $100 Mil each.

My personal theory of how this will play out is that Mars will be a shallow gravity well industrial base for solar system development. We take for granted how integral gravity is to pretty much every thing we do when it comes to building stuff. It's not known if there will ever be large scale industrial activity in zero gravity. O'Neil cylinders are a solution, but expensive to start. If you can either mine Mars or process astroidal material there, it's a lot cheaper to get back into space from Mars than it is from the moon.

That only kicks the can down the road a bit: what are the "solar system development" needs that would financially justify a Mars colony?

It probably starts from near-earth work to maintain Earth-orbiting infrastructure - refueling satellites without lugging fuel up Earth's gravity well. Then probably manufacturing in-orbit for similar cost savings on launch. And once there's that little bit of industrial base, the most likely driver of larger-scale industrialization is mining of elements that are rare on Earth and industrially useful (osmium, rhenium, iridium, etc.).

At least initially, I think ticket sales will do. With ticket prices floated for like 20 years before any go on sale, the target price is like $200,000 or so and the idea is that many people will be both willing and able to sell their Earthly possessions and go.

They will produce multiple exports from Mars that are most likely going to be scientific data and software, things that are easily transmittable back to Earth (unlike rocks etc).

I would also imagine the more distant future profit models will be similar to on Earth; people will buy and sell goods and services there, just like they do here. There will be Martians who want to go explore the rest of the solar system, so they will build that tech as well.

I could list more and maybe I will but I gotta run. There are limitless potential sustainable profit motives and economic activities that will happen on Mars; until we go and establish the colonies, we can only speculate the exact nature of them. But given that millions of people are saving their money clamoring to move to Mars ASAP, I imagine there will be millions of ideas for generating income on Mars.

Where there are problems that people have, there will be solutions that people will pay for. And there will be millions of people on Mars - so I expect millions of problems and millions of solutions.

Edit: I imagine sports arenas will be built, and new sports created/adapted for Mars (the moon will surely be popular for this too). There will be Martian olympics and various other games that nobody on Earth can do - but will surely pay $20 to 'livestream' ppv.

I'll keep thinking about possible _differentiated, diversified, and large-scale_ revenue sources for self-sufficient colonies on Mars to consider prior to and during their founding.

Tourism, mining high-value minerals, real-estate speculation, new forms of low-gravity athletics, and retirement communities for people with mobility issues who would be stuck in a wheelchair in full gravity.

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