We will regulate your entire car out of existence. Soon.
Costa Rica has banned new combustion vehicle sales as of 2021, Norway 2025, and other countries 2030-2040. As EVs go mainstream, I expect those deadlines to be pulled forward.
Norway is aggressive, but the rest of Europe is generally targeting 2030. I'm not expecting the US to even come close to the EU, as range is a much larger factor there.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/31/costa-rica-is-on-the-br...
However, I can't help but think that a shift in economics might be the method of changing over, maybe rather quickly.
IMO the bans are silly politics and really just grandstanding. We are barely into the adoption curve of EVs and already a base Model 3 is cheaper to own than an Accord or Camry.
Give EVs 10 more years (a relative eternity) and they will probably be the majority of new vehicles sold just due to market forces. 10 years after that gas stations will have trouble staying in business.
Any fleet will have to switch to EV to be cost competitive on a $/mi basis. Once you can spend $1 to save $1.10 (including interest on the loan) anyone with access to financing will go EV. Which with interest rates only going lower, is almost everyone.
The best way to incentivize the next wave of adoption IMO is dramatically reducing the cost of non-peak electricity. Generation costs are already dropping significantly but retail rates are still averaging over 10 cents for supply and another 10 cents for delivery. In MA for example, many areas do not even offer TOU billing, and where it is offered it only reduces the generation cost slightly, not the supply cost, so it barely even saves 25%, which is asinine. [1]
My impression is we should be able to deliver non-peak energy for under $0.08/kWh total, supply and generation all-in. That would significantly increase EV adoption!
[1] - https://www.eversource.com/clp/vpp/vpphistory.aspx#EMA