Flash/Flex or Silverlight? Opinions?

I'm trying to get a better understanding of the pros and cons between flash/flex and silverlight.

Flash is the standard for online video, with ~98% PC's with some version of flash.[0] Our team can hack in flash/flex very easily.

Silverlight is being touted as the next platform by Arrington and Scoble. We might get a lot more press as being the first Silverlight app. Also, if silverlight provides a technological edge, then we can be one of the early adopters and beat everyone that's still using flash/flex.

The cons of Silverlight is that I'm not sure how much I trust Microsoft to screw me later. While the platform is free, the hosting and bandwidth will switch to pay-for-use after the beta is over. [1]

Opinions?

[0] http://www.forbes.com/2006/06/07/video-internet-youtube_cx_df_0607video.html

[1] http://www.microsoft.com/silverlight/faq.aspx

Use flash if you want to actually go into production with this app. Silverlight has no adoption yet.