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Comment by ganeshkrishnan | Hacker News Reader

This is two days outdated. We are at meaningful vote 3 phase.

I assume this is going to fail again which gives it a 80% hard brexit chance with 20% rescinding brexit.

I have always been all-in on "no brexit" for last three years. It's a dog and pony show.

It's not a "meaningful vote" today (29th) - it's only a vote on the withdrawal agreement, not the political declaration. According to the Attorney General that means it's not a "meaningful vote" as previously defined.

And it's going to be voted down, of course.

Whatever happened to the speaker's declaration that the government couldn't keep bringing up the same bill?

Is this actually different, or did everyone forget that?

The government rules-lawyed it to be different by moving only the WA part rather than the WA+PD which it previously insisted had to be voted on together.

This is not a repeat, it is some kind of sneaky half-vote just on the WA that will not ensure an orderly Brexit on May 22.

It appears that Theresa May is trying to run the clock past the April deadline for a long delay, so we're back in a "her deal or no deal" situation. Then again the EU will probably not stand for that.

No what she actually wants is to pass this motion today so we can fix the May 22 leaving date and then we can move to the next stage. But seems the other parties are determined to continue playing political games instead.

A European Commission spokesman said: "The withdrawal agreement negotiated between both parties is indeed both necessary and sufficient to ensure the orderly withdrawal of the UK."

I think that was part of the agreement on the new measures: If no measures pass, default to MV3.

No, that was not the case and this is not MV3.

Bercow ruled yesterday that today's motion is sufficiently different.

> Whatever happened to the speaker's declaration that the government couldn't keep bringing up the same bill?

That's why they are voting on the withdrawal agreement by itself. They haven't done that before.

It's not a "meaningful vote" as defined by section 13(4) of the Withdrawl Act but it's effectively the same thing. It's a meaningful vote from the perspective of the EU becuase they don't care about the PD anyway.

The EU have said they will continue with just the WA they don't need the political declaration.

Seems he is waiting:

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1111577041965600770

>I have always been all-in on "no brexit" for last three years.

I've always been fascinated by the "drive it off of the cliffs" mentality, and I don't mean this as an affront, in any form or fashion.

For example, what is your opinion of the breakdown of the Good Friday agreement? Is there a genuine belief that the bombings wouldn't recur or is it more of an NIMBY, so not my concern? (Again, not an affront, I genuinely want to understand.) Or what's the opinion on Scotland having another referendum on independence, since they voted remain?

I read the parent as saying he is against Brexit (all in on "no Brexit"), presumably for the reasons you articulate.

All in on "no Brexit", to me, sounds like "going all in" on a round of poker - meaning you're very much for that.

Yes. He is very much for "no Brexit", ie not doing Brexit. Not to be confused with "no-deal Brexit", which is doing Brexit without a deal.

Yes being very much for ‘no brexit’ means you’re against brexit.

Yes exactly. They want Brexit not to happen at all. Your reply seemed to be talking about "no deal Brexit" which is essentially the opposite scenario.

Correct. More precisely I meant brexit not happening at all. That is article 50 will be rescinded and UK will return to status quo.

Politicians are covering eyes whilst saying "we can't see that happening". This generation of UK politicians are demonstrably proving themselves to be the worst in our history: Every vote, every debate they put party above national interest.

Anyone old enough to remember the peace process that was the decade+ leading up to the GFA is probably concerned that things could all too easily kick off again. All it takes is one kid doing something stupid at the border...

> Every vote, every debate they put party above national interest.

They saw how the Lib Dems were treated for putting country above party in 2010. Rather than a unifying coming together of viewpoints to reach a consensus, we've now got a massively polarized electorate.

The most flow chart seems to cover MV3 and potential outcomes pretty well.

It (Brexit) is a hell of a mess, I have no idea how you guys are going to get out of this one.

"I have no idea how you guys are going to get out of this one"

Neither have I, but I imagine that time, geography and economics will sort it out.

EU changing, old guard turning over. UK voters changing each year due to the grim reaper and 17 year olds turning 18 (about 600k churn each year).

Charts are really useful. Hope they are updated.

It cover's MV3 but starts above it giving 0.4 as no consensus and 0.7 for MV3 but we know it is "no consensus" and MV3 today. So the percentages below will change.

As he said on twitter he is banking on Mv3 losing and I assume the same which leaves with 80% no-deal brexit and 20% no brexit.

I am betting on brexit being rescinded. The deal falling thru and the parliament dumping it.

The odds need adjusting giving it's not quite mv3 but just separation agreement. I don't think we're at 80% hard, 20% cancel a50? Even though it didn't get an indicative majority, there's still a chance MV3 fails and we move to a longer extension and/or peoples vote.

They should have left immediately since they could have been back by now.

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