Oil traders are watching workers’ phones to spot problems at refineries
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Also smoking on the job is apparently much more common at refineries than I would have expected.
Edit: this comment reflects the state of the industry 20 years ago, second hand. Take it for what it's worth.
It seems like the system mostly prevents massive Enron style fraud.
Sino-Forest has probably been the largest and most well known (as well as Valeant and their fake pharmacies) along with a bunch of Chinese small-medium-cap reverse IPO's like CCME
There was a Planet Money podcast about this [0] that if I remember correctly said it wasn't even explicitly illegal in the US until relatively recently. It was considered theft to take insider knowledge, but not illegal to trade on it.
[0] I think it's this one: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/12/23/460689797/epis...
I mean, think about it for a second.
Not saying it’s the best joke, just explaining the meaning.
(and really, much of the time, acceptance is the wrong word. Indifference or something like that often fits better)
Correlated implies a statistical relationship, ruling out phrases like "will take any risk regardless" and requiring phrases more like "may tend to" and such.
And then I even said that I "expect" the correlation, so it's probably reasonable to read the usage as more conversational than scientific.
I've heard an apocryphal story that I'm still waiting for truth on. It was of a soybean prop trading firm quant who reverse engineered a cross-town rival's trading strategy, allowing them to front run their strategy. The way that they did it was taking a number from the firm's name, and using it as a random number seed, and then using that seed to find the randomized order sizes would result from their iceberg order algorithm. They would use those sizes to match to l2 passive limit order flow to try to identify activity coming from the firm. Once they discovered the direction the firm was going, they'd place a huge market order and suck up all of the liquidity that the competitor was trying to acquire passively, effectively moving the market before their competitor could fill their position.
Stuff like this still blows me away, but it's just crazy enough to be true.
That said, there are narrow instances where you can place less-than-real orders in a market [0]... it just has to be a market that is nearly and completely illiquid.
[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-04/trying...
Providing data that another company illegitimately bases their trades on isn't trading.
I'm assuming that they used the company name for their RNG seed out of laziness or ignorance...very few people would expect that line of attack.
I'm lost as to what is meant here by "number". Are you saying the target firm was randomizing its iceberg order's component order sizes using the same seed? If yes, how could the target firm's usage of that seed be known by the "attacker" here?
It sounds ridiculous on its face, but the industry is known for going to extremes, and that sort of problem solving isn't unheard of in other domains (like cryptography for example). I'm way out of my depth with understanding it, and it could be complete bullshit, but it isn't outside the realm of what I've seen proven in the past, which is why I'm hoping someone someday will confirm it.
Stuff is insane
1. Generate fake phone profiles of a made-up disaster crew
2. Wait for minor disaster at random refinery
3. Feed trackers with location data showing your fake crew moving into that refinery
4. Repeat 2, 3 to associate your profiles with disaster
5. Short some fine $refinery stock
6. Move your crew to $refinery
7. Profit
I wonder whether this has already been pulled off :-)
Source. 4 years of R&D at HFT company that traded around $10^10 during that time :)
As a (somewhat ridiculous) counter example, suppose I know you, a trader, love tap dancing and I, also a trader, happen to be a skilled tap dancer. On Monday I show up outside your office and start tapping up a storm. You are unable to resist the sound of your favorite thing and rush out of your office to enjoy my performance. I return at the same hour Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and by then you are out on the sidewalk expecting me when I show up. Friday you leave your office as usual but you wait for me to show in vain, for I am in my office and taking advantage of your absence to make a big trade against you.
Have I defrauded you? You believed that I would show up to entertain you instead of competing against you in the market, and frankly I trained you to think so only to enrich myself at your expense.
Let’s make it simple you intend to commit murder, you buy the tools, draw up a plan, then get arrested. Guess what you are up for with zero interaction with the victim
Murder is murder, tap-dance distraction isn't fraud.
Intent is a tricky thing to prove, it requires knowing the state of someone's mind. Until we have mind-reading devices, there is no way to know someone's state of mind with complete certainty, so we necessarily have to rely on circumstantial evidence, including what someone said, wrote, and yes, researched in the past.
Researching a grotesque topic is by no means proof that you committed a grotesque act, but it's definitely a nugget of evidence.
As a community service in case you’ve convinced yourself, have a read of https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud
“ In law, fraud is deliberate deception to secure unfair or unlawful gain, or to deprive a victim of a legal right “
Exactly the story I’m replying too
Once again this is about the intent, it’s not about how you can hand wave it away as something else, that part is for the trial
In law fraud <=> deception <=> intent
Also, I dont appreciate the tone of your post, eg "as a community service"
“fraud is deliberate deception to secure unfair or unlawful gain”
That means either unfair gain or unlawful gain. Not only unlawful gain
You'd have to argue cellphone activity/location is a legitimate "positive statements".
Are they placing detection equipment at/near the target locations to monitor for cell phone signatures in the vicinity, or are they gathering from mobile apps who resell location data to aggregation firms?
https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/09/us-cell-carriers-still-sel...
I'm guessing location data comes from the Apple/Google location APIs that can map peoples aprox locations based on their proximity to Wi-Fi points (I think they register Wi-Fi points and then the first GPS signal the phone gets after; like when someone walks outside, and use a set of those to get approximate triangulation for indoor Wi-Fi APs).
I reckon it'll be coming from catriers
I assume there is a geofencing API call that returns a bunch of GUIDs and another that takes a GUID and gives a location with last time seen?
There would be a "supervisor" app with a schematic 3D model of the site, with dots or tags indicating the location of smartphones of workers, who have installed a satellite app.
There would be messaging between the satellite apps and the supervisor app, and a worker with a satellite app could stream video or post pictures to their tag, which could then be accessed from the supervisor app.
There could also be a VR/AR version of this. No video stream would take over the POV of the VR/AR users. Rather, the streams would be available as pop-up "screens" from the location tags on the schematic model.
For bonus points, interface this with CAD/CAM, so that not only the schematic model can be imported, but the design details can be accessed and drilled-down, and relayed to the workers on-site.
The purpose would be to provide answers and clarifications to workers very quickly, as well as providing contextual information localized in the 3D space of the design to supervisors, architects, and engineers.
Is there already something like this?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_information_modeling
There's no reason why the realtime video feed and the voice communication between the architect and GC couldn't be tagged and timestamped as well.
The AR angle certainly sounds cool but even aside from the HW not being there yet, I'm not sure how it would add much value.
For plans/models which have some 3D complexity, being able to crane your neck and move your POV around might be valuable for understanding exactly what's going on. This might be more applicable to building the 1st iteration of something like a large jetliner than to a building, though I've heard of situations in the building of stadiums where this would've been applicable.
The point is really to save the project time by letting the workers ask clarifying questions quickly, while enabling engineers and architects to understand the situation quickly, all while communicating in realtime. The turnaround for answering such questions probably couldn't get faster than that.
What exactly are those, might I ask?
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:65120040...
So how do they know these people are contractors? Or are they just measuring the raw number of people in the oil facilities?
They are buying this data off ad providers and getting an ad id and geo coords, this is what leads me to believe they are just going off volume of users in the location
Step 2: Get past location data that includes these periods (but spans a much larger time).
Step 3: Analyze what's different about the problem times compared to normal operation.
In some cases, it might actually be as simple as X% of work force doesn't come in for normal shift on what is otherwise a normal day.
The result can often be something akin to: "wow, who could have ever predicted that this data would extrapolate out to show such a unique visualization or trend"
However, re-identification of "anonymous" ad ids is extremely common, and they could easily be using a service that gives them, for instance, a home address and email account associated with the phone via re-identification methods.
Add in mobile operators, etc, and recombine the anonymous ids with the help of LiveRamp et al and it’s just a simple data problem.
()I'm not very familiar with the shale fracking process, so don't jump on me for technical inaccuracy.
Also there are many tongue-in-cheek or naive comments about refineries feigning problems, or knowledge of refinery issues being licenses to print money in futures. It's not even close.
Many of the important refineries in the US are monitored 24/7 by third party companies (eg. Genscape) who stare at refineries with thermal cameras. These immediately notice potential problems, as flaring occurs, or some unit dramatically changes temp (gets hotter or cooler), updating subscribers in moments. There are similar services that scrape all the public-warning systems that refineries must use to inform residents when they have emissions or problems.
Finally, while no doubt there are times when refinery upsets (particularly for major gasoline-producing refineries) occur there is an immediate, clear, exploitable move in futures markets [in fact recently], there are also many times when that knowledge would have been swamped by some other force. *I recall reading a few months ago that someone analysed a literal insider traders' trade history and realized they weren't able to exploit to nearly the level you'd expect. It just turns out that markets are absurdly complicated.
If you look at the graph, currently we're talking about a fluctuation of about 7 devices.
All you'd have to do is set up a handful of devices (or emulate them and spoof the GPS).. download some sketchy apps, or look for apps that have ties to this company, to bump the location information up. Then turn the devices on or off, so that there's never any change.
If I was the oil company I'd probably set up a shell company to buy the data feed as well so I could get it perfect.
Top google result - https://eldfacts.com/eld-facts/
We are closer to The Matrix with each year passed.
Do you think it's cheaper to just buy back the data or to set up their own cell towers and block the app traffic?
As far as making your own cell tower, I would love to know if this is even something a non telco company can do. I doubt creating any blocks for specific content would be possible or legal as well. How would you block https traffic, and how would you determine who is an employee and who is not?
This tracking is a result of allowing visitors to bring personal devices on prem. As long as they are personal devices administered by their owner I don't know what could be done to mitigate this.
The problem still exists if all phones are put into a faraday cage when they arrive at the site. Instead of tracking users at the plant they just track users who 'go offline' at the drop off site.
Getting employees to stop bringing personal devices is the only way to actually quell this fear. Even the US military has an issue with Strava run logs leaking data about the movement patterns in their bases.
A bit like some people hire actors to pretend you have more employees.
Could you expand on this or link to an example? It seems like this wouldn't be cost effective (or useful).
It's ethically dubious, but if it's done for a day or two, it's not that expensive compared to actually hiring that many people on a full time basis.
Why? Corporate espionage (either collecting metadata for speculation or exfiltrating corporate secrets) has the highest incentives around it.
Order of espionage I'd expect State>Corporation>Individual
The only thing that's changed in the past 30 years is surveillance/espionage has gotten cheap enough that it can be performed on individuals
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fuelish-pleasures/
Power switches with mechanical contacts on older phones might be a different story, but again, there's no smoking gun (or flaming refinery) that points to this having ever been an issue.
I remember a mythbusters episode where they filled an outbuilding with dozens of different cellphones and lots and lots of open cannisters of gasoline and other petrochemicals, then called them all repeatedly without incident.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjrkwxMhc4s
I'm sure there are parts of a refinery where even static electricity could be enough to set something off but I'd assume they were not areas that people typically worked.
Of course, a refinery needs to be more careful of batteries.
BUY OIL when explosion or war constricts the supply
SELL OIL when new resource is found increasing the supply
BUY OIL COMPANY when new resource is found increasing the supply AND when the company increases its ability to sell more oil at higher margins
SELL OIL COMPANY when explosion happens on company property
BUY OIL PRICE ETF when you want to go long oil but are too poor/risk averse for futures contract
SELL OIL PRICE ETF when you want to go short oil but are too poor/risk averse for futures contract