Speaking from my experience getting journalists and political campaigns set up with signal in 2017-2018, the early scary key change warnings were off-putting to people and made them reluctant to continue with the messenger. At the time, I was in contact with 100-150 people via signal and quickly ran out of patience with anyone who insisted on a safety number check. But the UI at the time encouraged that level of paranoia.
I continue to believe that making key changes as painless as possible for users is the correct approach as long as there are ways to harden this behavior in the settings, for the benefit of the far smaller set of people to whom MITM attacks are a credible threat.