American Astronauts to Return to Moon Within 5 Years, VP Pence Pledges
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Under George W. Bush, the NASA Authorization Act of 2005 directed the NASA administer to "strive to achieve" milestones including "Return Americans to the Moon no later than 2020" and "Launch the Crew Exploration Vehicle as close to 2010 as possible" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Authorization_Act_of_2005
The Augustine Committee in 2009 determined that it would not be possible with the budget available. "The Committee judged the 9-year old Constellation program to be so behind schedule, underfunded and over budget that meeting any of its goals would not be possible. President Obama removed the program from the 2010 budget effectively canceling the program." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Review_of_United_States_Human_...
Instead, Obama wanted "a U.S.-crewed orbital Mars mission by the mid-2030s, preceded by an asteroid mission by 2025" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_policy_of_the_Barack_Oba...
Going back in time, the Space Exploration Initiative was a policy in the George H. W. Bush administration. "he described plans calling for constructing Space Station Freedom, sending humans back to the Moon "to stay" and ultimately sending astronauts to explore Mars." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Exploration_Initiative
So, excuse me while I screw up my face and point out that until I see a real political push by the administration for actual, serious funding, I ain't holding my breath. And the NYT piece says there is no such funding.
Bush's made an empty campaign promise then Obama kicked the idea so far down the road it was totally out of sight.
But five years? That's doable insane. Like, get Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and NASA in a room ask them who wants this more.
1) Bush's does not seem to have been a campaign promise. While the vision was proposed in an election year, it also received Congressional funding - $16.2 billion - and legislation in the same year.
Note that Trump started his reelection campaign when he entered office, so anything he says about the future can be regarded as a campaign promise, yes?
2) There does not appear to be funding behind the Trump administration's proposal. Quoting the NYT piece, "an accelerated pace has not been evident in the Trump administration’s NASA budget requests to Congress, raising many questions about how it will be possible for the agency to accomplish this ambitious goal." Much less the White House pressure that the Bush administration used to get their full budget through.
(Quoting https://web.archive.org/web/20050913093403/http://www.space...., "The White House, which had threatened to veto a bill moving through the House during the summer that would have cut $1.1 billion from NASA’s request, leaned on appropriators during the closing days of the budget battle to make NASA a high priority.")
3) I see no indication that Trump prioritizes this policy anywhere near as high as Bush did.
As to "doable insane" for going to the Moon now, note that Bush announced in his 2004 speech "Our second goal is to develop and test a new spacecraft, the Crew Exploration Vehicle, by 2008, and to conduct the first manned mission no later than 2014."
That was 4 years for a new spacecraft. Certainly that's more doable and sane than going to the Moon, which was Bush's third goal. Yet it wasn't done.
No matter which of Musk, Bezos, or NASA might want it more, how much money do you think they'll need, and where is that money?
[1] Where "easy" means that they will have a 1% chance of dying, but that almost a half of the risk of flying in the Space Shuttle.