WeWork’s Annual Loss Doubles to Nearly $2B Amid Rapid Expansion
wsj.com
wsj.com
The reason for this is profit doesn't factor in investments. Let's say I invest $1200 to acquire one customer who pays me $100/month. If you look at month 0, I have -$1200 in profit. At first glance, this looks really bad. Alternatively, you can see it as I am now making $100/month. Because of the $100/month, after one year I'll have made my original investment back and still be making $100/month. After two years, I'll have made a profit of $1200.
This is probably exactly what's happening here with WeWork. If you look at things in aggregate, WeWork is spending a ton of money investing in opening new offices while they make a much smaller amount of money from their old offices. This makes them look like they are lighting money on fire. In reality they are investing their money in new offices and expect each office to make a return on investment over a few years. As long as they are spending more money investing in new offices than they are making from the old ones, they will appear unprofitable.
For a typical software business, a pair of metrics that are much better than profit are CAC (cost of acquiring a customer) and LTV (the life time value of a customer). As long as a product's LTV is sufficiently greater than CAC (a successful SaaS company typically has LTV > 3 * CAC), it makes sense to invest more money into the business.
This For Entrepreneurs post goes in great depth about good ways to measure a SaaS business and gives you a few models you can play with: https://www.forentrepreneurs.com/saas-metrics-2-definitions-...
Now all of this doesn't mean that WeWork is a healthy business. All it means is that we can't tell based on how much money they are losing alone.
Also, when a recession hits, it seems like the first offices a company closes has are the ones on a short-term lease at a co-working space....
[Edit] My second comment is because I work for a large company who opened an office in a WeWork space to be more hip and relevant....and I see a lot of other "big" companies with offices in the building.
> How does it factor in that they are leasing their buildings? Won't their rents eventually go up, and won't they have to remodel all the time to keep up their hip/modern work spaces?
All of this does matter, but per the OP may matter less than CAC + initial push into a market (brand-building etc.). Think of the cost to develop e.g. MS Word vs. the incremental cost to retain users (programmer salaries go up over time, they have to remodel the app ~annually, etc).
If the WeWork model works in a market, they can buy buildings later (perhaps during a recession).
> when a recession hits, it seems like the first offices a company closes has are the ones on a short-term lease at a co-working space
I'm sure the other side of this argument goes something like the arguments against car ownership. Many companies won't have any long-term leases anywhere, will be more remote-friendly, etc. In fact some companies will choose to not re-up on long-term leases in favor of more flexible options like WeWork specifically because who wants to sign a long-term lease during a recession when visibility is poor?
It'll be interesting to see how this all works out for a lot of this generation "tech" companies.
Apartment rents spiked during the last financial crisis because people downsizing increased demand for them. It's entirely possible that downsizing companies might want to retreat from leases to smaller WeWork offices during the next one.
One of the example of this was Groupon. When they filed for IPO they were using gross sales as their revenue. And then deducting money paid to their partners as expense. SEC had to step-in and ask Groupon to restate their P&L statement so that the top line was net revenue instead of gross.
With a SaaS business - most of which are b2b - there are tremendous costs to switching providers and going without is typically not an option. For example, if company uses Salesforce, they must have a CRM and it will likely save them little to no money to switch to a competitor (ex. Hubspot) but it will create enormous organizational disruption as people and processes are built around the existing platform. So customer life-cycle is likely 10 years or more for the customers that generate the majority of their revenue. And if we do have a recession and they bleed customers, Salesforce can always reduce costs by cutting sales and support staff. The existing capital investments in the software are already paid-off.
In comparison, WeWork's model is predicated on being easier to join and leave than a typical office space. As a result, they attract businesses with shallower capital reservoirs. Meanwhile, WeWork is holding inventory risk in that they hold the long-term lease or the property itself. So in the event of a recession their customer base will be the first to die out or cut costs via less desks and/or working from home.
(WeWork may or may not be off-setting this risk via financial engineering but the question is at what cost as someone has to take the other side of the bet and the downside risk here is pretty obvious. And, oh look, the yield curve just inverted.)
Finally, 10 years in, Uber is still a commodity business. I generally think Uber is better than Lyft and worse than Via, but none of their advantages are anywhere near as durable as a SaaS business. Don't like Ubers new prices? Don't like the the CEOs new haircut? You can use one of their other competitors starting tomorrow. Even if you use Uber today there is zero reason you can't switch to Waymo/Apple/whatever in the future. And in the worst case scenario, Uber paid CAC to educate consumers who will use something else in the future.
The main commonality I was highlighting was that these business have high upfront costs and make the money back over a long period of time. Because of this, profits are a not very good way to measure the health of these businesses.
As for signing/leaving leases, the experience is comparable. You can leave any lease if you're willing to pay the penalties defined without much of a hassle. Usually, the hassle has to do with the renegotiation of the terms. But I do agree, WeWork has been more flexible about breaking the initial agreement.
If the company buys another company then they can recognise the difference between the purchase price and the company's assets as a new asset vaguely named 'goodwill' which covers things like customer relationships and everything else the accounting standards otherwise miss, but this isn't allowed otherwise.
It's not like it's a new thing that businesses need to invest to to acquire customers. The entire science/discipline of accounting exists to provide accurate metrics of business performance. Its ridiculous to say that "profits are a bad metric" because of this.
Also, WeWork is not a software business, since they do not sell software. Why would those metrics apply here when all their money is made through leasing office space?
This is accurate.
> The fact that income has not kept up implies that occupancy is low.
This is inaccurate. (To be clear, occupancy may be low, but WeWork's reported losses don't imply that that's the case.) If WeWork turns around and spends that rental income plus some of its investors' capital on customer acquisition expenses, it will report losses, even if those expenses bring about a net increase in the expected present value of future profits. This is just a result of the timing difference between the recognition of acquisition expenses and the revenue that they produce.
Andrew Chen, ex VP Growth at Uber, had a blog up on just this: https://andrewchen.co/how-to-actually-calculate-cac/
In your example, you have treated $1200 as an expense.
Lot of companies tend to capitalize these expenses (for example "deferred commissions" on Salesforce B/S). So, they will create a reserve on the Balance sheet of $1200, then decide on the useful life of the said expense and depreciate it on the P&L.
Let's say WeWork thinks the useful life of the $1200 expense is 24 months. The calculation will work like this:
P&L
Month 0: Depreciation Expense 0, Revenue 0 and Profit 0
Month 1: Depreciation Expense $50, Revenue $100 and Profit $50
Month 2: Depreciation Expense $50, Revenue $100 and Profit $50 so and so forth
BS
Month 0 - Asset $1200
Month 1 - Asset $1150 (Depreciation $50)
Month 2 - Asset $1100 (Depreciation of another $50)
You have a company like Regus, that's not a tech company, they have a MUCH low evaluation, but makes a profit and having more offices.
BTW - the concept is "valuation", not "evaluation" :)
Oooh... thanks. This is one of those cases where I suddenly realise that I've been using the wrong word for year :-|
And this comment is worth looking at: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19488219
That said, the basic mechanic has been the subject of substantial legislative tinkering in pretty much every common law jurisdiction in the world.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/weworks-ceo-makes-millions-as-l...
If the business fails, not only will he have no wealth from the company, you know sure as shit someone will come after him for these shady practices, putting him in extra trouble.
But there are too many of these types of companies. It doesn't make sense. You've got Lyft, Uber, WeWork, and probably a whole host of others who have kept their financials close to their chests.
Maybe one or a couple of these companies figure out how to turn a profit that justifies these losses and valuations. My guess is most of them won't. I only wish I could confidently say which is which.
Companies don’t sell equity for fun, they only do it if they have no other choice (they aren’t profitable yet, or they plan to become unprofitable due to new expansion. For the latter they may be able to raise debt instead of venture capital investment) right?
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if WeWork did that just to cargo-cult a successful company.That or it involves a plan of "playing dress up as a successful company" given the sheer "B ark feel" to the place. Other plausible explanations are that WeWork is an embezzlement scheme, fraud, or money laundering operation since nothing about the place makes sense.
They seem to have plenty of cash on hand (1 year runway in cash plus much more available from softbank). So the losses really aren't a problem.
Another thing I've heard is "But during a recession their long term rents will eat capital and demand will collapse". But that might not be true- it may be that they have deep enough pockets to weather a recession, pick up new cheap property in long-term agreements and gain customers. Hear me out: Maybe they can make a play during the recession that their short-term flexible leases are low risk for clients during a recession making them a great choice. It would mean they come out of the next recession with great market share and then can focus the next business cycle on starting to squeeze out those profits.
I've got to admit I actually believe they could get to profitability - but the only way I see is by growing to a size where they can drop prices in local areas to force out competition and charge monopolistic prices elsewhere.
Point taken, but, we can definitely 'judge them' in the case of unit profitability.
Expansion is one thing, it's loaded with startup costs for each unit - but the key is, 'are the long running installations running at unit profitability, even when accounting for corporate overhead'.
That's the first order thing we need to know, because if not, then it's a problem because the only way to make more money would be to jack rent or cut overhead, neither good options.
The other thing is of course the inherent risks in their contracts. Are their margins so thin they can't withstand a real-estate shock? What happens when there's a down cycle and they have a lot of empty space? Are their contracts subject to flexibility? Or are they toast? Surely, they're 'always room to negotiate' because if there is a downturn, their landlords will get it on some level and rather WW stick around than have an empty building, but there might not be enough room to manoever given possible overhead of running the place + corporate overhead.
And lastly is the sustainability of their advantage. Do people really like the WW brand that much? Or are they betting on juicy corporate contracts with fat margins they can sink their teeth into like Oracle.
I think that's where the bulk of the material grey areas reside.
But in simple terms - they suck, they're loud, and I'm pretty sure the company will tank in the next few years.
For low $1000s we have a fully sealed glass room with a door and an amazing view just a few blocks away from a BART stop. Comes with a chair, desk, coffee and basic office amenities. The next best option was a crappy art studio with one window way out in the middle of nowhere. Sure there's better spaces but nothing that's even close to what we could afford as a small startup.
WeWork is struggling with its position. On one hand, cool kids want a cool coworking space that's super central and with a lifestyle crowd (OneCowork in Barcelona). On the other hand, more serious people want a very functional office space without the cool factor, Regus.
No idea in the US but here in Barcelona, WeWork is too much in the middle.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/i...
[0] https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi...
At their age and size that’s both beyond insane and far outside what could be reasonably deemed “expansion costs.”
Worst case, they can always try making up for the losses with greater volume.
[a] Quoting directly from https://www.wework.com
The X5A's are 31dB reduction, the Peltor Optime III's are 35dB.
Edit: I was wrong, the X5A's are a bit better for reducing human speech than the Optime III (Optime 105)'s.
https://remembereverything.org/my-top-6-noise-blocking-earmu...
https://remembereverything.org/my-top-6-noise-blocking-earmu...
Now we're not in a WeWork and it is blissfully quiet.
As a person who used to do business development kind of stuff, it's a completely different mindset with very different tasks, and loud office with a lot of things happening around you weirdly fits it very well.
Add a ping poll table, stock a fridge with free beer and invite meetups/incubators to hold their events there.
Pretty cringeworthy.