In 1995 I had a technical idea underlying a product, and tried to do it at my current company. It was an uphill slog due to lots of resistance, and it just wasn't happening. Java 1.0 had just come out. My company was thinking about client-side Java (which is how Java was initially positioned). My idea made more sense server-side and I liked Java. I decided that my idea was potentially useful and decided to do it on my own. I gave myself eight months to build something and then figure out what to do with it. I had no idea how to sell it, market it, did zero market research. I have a very understanding wife.
Eight months later, prototype is done and working great, and I had been trying to find interested parties. A tech giant in Redmond was "interested", but only because they were hiring people in my area of expertise. They were going to buy the software to hire me. It was basically a signing bonus. But I visited and could not stand the place.
A friend of a friend put me in touch with a VC who put me in touch with a local startup who bought my software for a decent amount of equity. The startup went on to a good exit and I lived happily ever after.
Obviously, I was extremely lucky. The idea I just had to work on happened to actually have some value. But I just as easily could have been fooling myself. Things are very different now, due to open source, and I think that the path I took wouldn't work any longer. Certainly not for the technology I worked on, (there are now many open source products available), but obviously lots of software that used to be proprietary now isn't.
As for what you should do: Do you have a technical idea, requiring innovative software? (I'm assuming you are a software engineer.) Or do you have a business idea that requires only well-understood technology? If it's the latter, and if you are primarily a techie, the risk of fooling yourself is much higher.
No matter what you do, be very careful about IP issues with your current employer. They can lay claim to anything you do while you are employed. Review your employee agreement and think about whether your idea overlaps anything your company cares about. I suggest talking to a lawyer with some experience in IP and employee agreements if you decide to pursue your idea while employed. (As I was about to sell my software to the startup, my old employer accused me of stealing trade secrets, which nearly killed the deal. They had no basis for the charge -- they were on a fishing expedition. But it made my life miserable for several weeks.)
What it came down to for me was: If I don't try, it will gnaw at me forever, and I was reasonably certain of some value. Of course, there can be regrets either way. But I've only had the "itch that must be scratched" feeling about technical ideas, not business ideas. I think you are in a different situation since you are a techie with a business idea.
You may have some legal issues regarding IP if you stay at the current gig and have any degree of intermingling of your 'work' and your 'side work'. You should probably review your current work contract, and perhaps seek legal advice on this point.
You will never have enough time for your side project if you're working full time for someone else. That said, many people working full time for themselves still don't have enough time. At least some of this comes down to being disciplined and focused. You can practice being disciplined and focused while keeping your fulltime gig, at least for a while longer.
"Burn rate" or "runway" - how much do you have in terms of savings to see you through? Are you independently wealthy, or do you need a steady stream of income? If so, calculate out how much you need, then determine what your comfort level is in terms of 'i could survive X months with $0 income'. My tolerance for risk isn't what it used to be - I'd want at least a solid year of expenses banked before I struck out on a venture. But you may be different - everyone is (kids, bills, etc).
As romantic as 'quit the day job!' is, have a strong plan in place first (imo). You can accomplish quite a lot 'on the side' while testing the waters before quitting the full time gig. Not everyone can, but many can.
I think we had a session on this at http://indieconf.com a couple weeks ago. :)
Some thoughts to your Q:
You need a partner in crime or someone who can hold you accountable. Without that constant "reporting" of what you've done.. you will be incline to not do. I think we all know what I'm talking about... we've all been there AND have done that for sure. I tried support groups looking for co-founder but finding that even harder than finding a woman to marry. Luckily I've found her.. in matter of months but co-founder.. after years of meeting dozens and dozens..nope. why? I realize that they are all "alpha" male like me. Which is an fortunate and unfortunate trait for a founder. Two alpha's don't make for a good partner.. they really need opposite traits BUT with the same goal... I'm finding it's easier to find a snowball in hell ;-)
Last word of advice.. don't goto cafe's.. the environment I found is NOT conducive to work.. it's more of distractions. I found libraries are the awesomeest places on earth to work! why? bc everyone else is! And it's quiet, has bathrooms, wifi, big, clean and don't require you to buy what you shouldn't do which is 800 calorie frap with 500 calorie donut to patronize the place. Library cost.. zero. Also a plus.. feels like you're at work! while cafe is more like a playground.
So.. bottomline from who's still trying to make it... 1. Keep your day job.. but keep it strictly "8-5" don't bring it home. 2. just do 2 weekday evenings and 1 weekend .. all day...if you have a significant other like me.. else squeeze in another weekeday. Leave Sun for half at most.. else you're going to burn yourself out. 3. always prep what you're going to do else you'll spend a good deal of your time floundering. We all know it takes a good hour to "start" coding again.. getting into that groove is much easier if you know what you need to accomplish. 4. do set small milestones AND a good realistic deployment date and have it tape up somewhwere where you see it EVERYDAY. Start with: a) feature list aka eng spec, functional spec, bizplan etc... b) mockup (I found it best to "emulate" a site that looks like what I want mine to be for starters) c) Get a quick mockup up and running. It's important to make visible progress at the end of each day's worth of work. It's a feel good thing to see progress else you'll lose the "steam" to go further.
Sorry.. this is turning out to be a book.. I'm rambling.. but I hope you get the gist of it.
If anything.. get inspired by coming to my two sites I got up.. One for article storage: http://www.QuasiPreneur.com Another I just got done coding from the ground up: http://www.VentingPost.com
-QuasiPreneur
PS> Would love to hear some feedbacks on my sites... still coding 3 more before xmas!!!