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I don't disagree, so this is my opinion on how that reality reconciles against how the world needs to work for us to enjoy comfort and prosperity.

Rule of thumb for depreciation is about 2-5% of an asset decays each year and if it isn't maintained the whole thing will need to be replaced every 20-50 years. Some things defy that rule, but most things need repairs. If we live in a world where going into the trades that build and maintain everything is not considered a first-class job that allows a worker to make a first-class contribution then that is a problem.

Rather than spending money on funneling students away from the trades, money should be spent improving the OH&S outcomes of tradespeople and improving their access to tools. If someone is umming and aahing about doing a trade or becoming a social media expert, they should be able to rationally see trades as the more worthwhile job for themselves and others (obviously unless they have a real flair for social media).

That's a great goal, but I'm not sure how we get there.

Trade unions have a delicate balance between safety/compensation and cheaper labor alternatives. Developers want to maximize the efficiency of their capital and in construction, human resources are fungible.

Europe does a much better job of OH&S for tradespeople but if you look around there isn't nearly as much being built. America is the economic powerhouse it is in part because of the typically-low cost of human labor and other economies are going through the same thing now.

In Switzerland, most people go into trades. Higher education is not seen ad having higher status in any way. Also, if you call a plumber to fix your broken sink, it's going to be really expensive.

So most people go into trades and yet it’s still incredibly expensive to hire a tradesperson? Sounds like the market is failing.

I'm not sure why you're being downvoted. It's a legit question.

Switzerland is known for high fixed cost of living. It has been said that the Swiss people don't place higher value on "lesser" tasks, so it makes complete sense that it is expensive without any relation to how much the market is saturated - it wouldn't become cheap even if the market was oversaturated, rather some people would go away from that market - because of fixed costs of living.

Because we've all heard the "market" arguments hundreds of times here and they never seem to have much to do with reality at all. It's gotten to the point where I have real trouble assuming good faith when someone brings it up again.

Well, job pay seems to be based on status anyway. Switzerland is ridiculously rich either way.

Perhaps people go into the trades _because_ they are expensive to hire.

The market works two ways.

Aren't many of these trades very very heavily regulated? I'm not sure how much of a market you have there in the first place.

Given the option, people don't flock to low paying jobs, so the market works both ways. If you want to have a good pool of good workers you have to pay accordingly.

Buying meat in Switzerland is expensive. Milkmen earn 90k CHF/year ($90k) so milk/cheese aren't cheap either. It's how SUI operates; this can't be really extended to US with a completely different economy.

You make solid arguments about getting into trades. That's a field where unions have really helped out in some ways. I know they slow things down but they have also come a long way towards making people safer on the job. L&I solves some of these problems while having a promotion path can solve others. Electricians get bad knees, so at a certain point you've just got to get to the point that you can teach and not do. Or move into doing inspections.

Outside of that, one of the issues isn't that people should go into trade. But that so many jobs that are hidden behind a requirement for bachelors degree don't need it.

I'd love to see some of our industries out there take on apprenticeship programs for places where they think bachelors were required before. Probably not hard engineering fields, but my first job out of school I was a "Systems Engineer" but everything I needed to know was on the job training. Everything.

It's not exactly trade-related but as I've mentioned in the past my parents were fishermen. Similar to the trades, it's a very physically intense job that burns out your body, requires long hours and can be pretty dangerous.

After seeing how my parents ended up, it's no wonder to me why people would avoid the trades. We simply don't have the safety nets in place to protect people who burn out from those jobs, and no one wants to spend their later years in crippling pain as a result of destroying their back.

My parents were happy that I managed to get an office job.

I have an office job and I feel the need for physical activity. I take every opportunity: help out a friend to move to a new flat, help on construction site, whatever it is. I never saw physical activity as something that damages my body (besides normal muscle aches or blister on skin - which heal after some days). Is it so different to do this regularly/daily?

> Is it so different to do this regularly/daily?

Before I got into IT in the late 90's (I was 19-20 yrs), I had various construction work to tide me over. Like climbing a 4 metre ladder onto a roof with 40KG rolls of pitch, or setting rebar (the metal reinforcement for concrete) in -5C in the early morning, so when it heats up later the concrete can be poured. Just a couple of many stories where a slip was life or work ending - or being so bone cold you couldn't think.

Talking to the older guys left me with only one opinion, get out of construction.

A guy I know still from back then was cutting through a floor with a circular saw and went through the main electricity line into the building. The line wasn't on the plans... He lived by some amazing luck, but there was a very big bang.

I'm a veterinarian and switched to software partly because it was physically too draining.

Worked as a cattle vet for 8 months. I couldn't watch a movie anymore, always fell asleep. Being outside, lifting calves, the cuts and crushed toes, it was all too tiring. Maybe I didn't do it long enough.

I still work duty shifts from time to time. Eventually you hurt yourself (needles, bites, scratches, lifting animals, ...), it's just part of the job. But it's annoying, and exhausting to always (try to) be cautious and focused.

I can't think of any job that uses body functions and/or tools and is completely safe long term.

Now I feel physically fresh after my office job, and then bike everyday straight through the fields to go ride my horse. Impossible with my previous job, as I was already burned by it. I've reached a sane equilibrium : office job and 2-3 hours physical activity per day. And I definitely felt that a "field" job was draining me enough to affect my personal life.

Basically you do it until you or your friend injuries his back while trying to catch a falling sofa from stairs. After that you just pay for moving services. Seen it many times.

> The trades are hard on the body. Some trades are hazardous. An injury or medical problem that would be a hassle for someone with an office job can be career-ending for people in the trades.

Very true. I know a Uber driver who used to install and repair ACs. Unfortunately, one day, he had a mishap leading to a serious back injury. He was told he couldn't carry on in this line of work. He had no other skills or means to acquire a college-degree with a family to support. The only option he saw best fit was to drive a taxi.

This is a real problem, and probably the core of the issue the toll manual jobs takes on the body. I imagine with careful thought quite a few of these issues could be reduced.

The answer is working fewer hours. As a society, we are overworked. We should all be pushing for shorter work weeks.

Tradespeople work more hours than anybody I know, and the unfortunate reality seems to be that they have to. Otherwise projects would take twice as long, and in the event of an emergency there could potentially be nobody to answer to it.

Where I am, it's not uncommon to see an electrician or millwright working 70+ hour weeks to meet deadlines or make emergency repairs.

I don't disagree with your comments about tradespeople's hours, but I'm not sure I agree with the reasons. A lot of those long hours are due to taking on more work/jobs to make more money. That is probably somewhat due to lower income per job as a tradesman, and somewhat due to the desire to work more "overtime" to make more money, depending on the going rates in the area of work.

Moreover, it's been my experience that people in non-trade work (particularly non-exempt STEM workers) often work just as much overtime and don't even get paid for the pleasure. Granted, their base salaries are generally higher, but a tradesman working similar hours can approach or surpass that. (I say this is I sit at 2:40am waiting for code to compile...)

Non-sequitor: I misread that first word in your comment as "Transgenders" and was flabbergasted halfway into that first paragraph until I went back and re-read it :D

Then maybe the projects should take twice as long. Altrough, it is highly unlikely that 70 hours a week would produce twice as much speed as 40 hours. You dont get faster per hour with overtime.

> Otherwise projects would take twice as long, and in the event of an emergency there could potentially be nobody to answer to it.

Where precisely is the trouble for the tradeperson? This is something for the owner of the project to worry about, not someone who does the work.

>Tradespeople work more hours than anybody I know, and the unfortunate reality seems to be that they have to

This is much different from my experience. I see office workers (the startup crowd especially) working crazy hours, practically living at the office, and actually bragging about it.

Meanwhile, most trades jobs are unionized. So you might be working long hours in an emergency, but you're getting paid time-and-a-half at least. Outside of emergencies, you get to punch the clock, and leave work at work.

>I see office workers (the startup crowd especially) working crazy hours, practically living at the office, and actually bragging about it.

The grass is always greener. Especially if you look outside startups (and outside software engineering), I would guess the overwhelming majority of office jobs occur around a roughly 9-5 schedule without significant overtime. There's a reason rush hour is rush hour.

>There aren't a lot of jobs for people in middle age who can't physically work a trade anymore due to age or illness or injury -- it's about as bad as being a laid-off factory worker.

I agree with you, it's a tough racket. But I think we're going to be saying the same thing about many fields and occupations in the future. Being a drone in an office is no longer secure or, in fact, healthy.

At least in a trade you're doing more than pushing paper. to each their own.

> The trades are hard on the body. Some trades are hazardous. An injury or medical problem that would be a hassle for someone with an office job can be career-ending for people in the trades.

This is definitely true and I know a few people who this has been a huge issue for but I'm not so convinced it can be applied to the future. There is a lot more "automation" now than when the currently burnt out entered the industry, tools from nail guns to scissor lifts are now a lot more affordable and even mandated. There's also been a lot of improvements improvements to OHS and medicine in general, kids seem to be a lot more fitness obsessed too. They'll always be harder on the body, but I would expect the 50 year old tradesmen in 30 years time to be in much better condition than the 50 year old tradesmen today.

On the other hand, they keep lifting the retirement age so if this doesn't pan out they'll be even worse off.

> The trades also get hit very hard in recessions as people build fewer things

Is this objectively true? It seems to be common wisdom but I've never seen data to back it up. A lot of trades are more maintenance than new builds and can't be cut. I understand construction can take a big hit, but we still need almost as many plumbers and mechanics during a recession.

> The trades are hard on the body

We should be working on perfecting AI so that humans don't have to do this stuff.

We need to have a 4 day work week, and one day of adult education (something like a trade school but for the general population). Imagine being able to learn to rebuild an engine, or weld, every Thursday. It might take you a year or two, but you'll get it.