Nike and Boeing Are Paying Sci-Fi Writers to Predict Their Futures | Hacker News Reader

Nike and Boeing Are Paying Sci-Fi Writers to Predict Their Futures

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156 pointsbookofjoe70 comments

Other posters have noted that this isn't new at all. One could almost say that what's been predicted by futurologists over time is what Sci-Fi can see.

To me, what's interesting is the ways the lens of Sci-Fi can distort one's ideas. The flying car is the most classic, wrong science fiction prediction ever (even if it should come to pass). The way that the flying car fails is that ground motion doesn't translate directly into flying motion - flying transport has achieved some equivalence to ground motion but going from a "flying bus" (a conventional airplane) to a personal "flying car" turns out to be a vastly harder problem than going from a train to a car.

One might say, Sci-Fi involves extrapolation of experience, since the writer ultimately has describe the experiences of their characters. So what's missing overall, is "the dull parts", as least for "classic Sci-Fi", which has historically been adventure novels extrapolated into a new world (the novels of Robert Heinlein being the model).

Here, in a sense, dystopian and other novelist genres can give further insight a leg-up because they aren't constrained to make the future fun.

A really interesting story is EM Forrester's story "The Machine Stops", predicted many aspects of the Internet in 1909!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops

Not only many, I'd say the very defining aspects. It sends chills down my spine.

I know the flying car is a terrible idea and it's not practical or great, but the little boy inside of me still wants it every day!

That's why it makes great scifi but terrible business.

What about getting a gyrocopter?

It has to be silent(ish)! and and and it should work with reverse-gravity something something :-)

Well it's not antigravity but this sound-blocking tube might help make ducted fans quieter:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90316833/scientists-have-discove...

I believe that is because the best Sci-Fi always struck a balance of being magical or whimsical, of course, but not being so farfetched that one couldn't imagine how they could be created. Imagine all the hobby scientific research done by scientists to determine if lightsabers were actually possible, or if warp speed could be obtained!

One of the most incongruous anachronisms I've read in sci-fi was in Asimov's Second Foundation, Arkady Darrell is introduced writing in a diary with a device that (IIRC) telepathically reads your mind and converts it to text. She starts daydreaming, and as a result her daydreams are transcribed into the diary. Then she has to start the entry over again because it's ruined.

It's ironic that 50,000 years in the future, when humanity is spread across the Galactic Empire, the future course of history can be predicted based on human psychology, and devices can mind-read to text, that they still hadn't invented word processing. As a kid reading it in the 90s, it was amazing that the main character would be seriously peeved off by something that was a solved problem to me.

Asimov's way of writing was very typewriter-centric, so maybe it's not surprising that he in particular would fail to imagine word processor-like technology:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov#Characteristics

Second Foundation also came out in 1949, before the stored-program computer was invented. Computers at the time were room-sized electromechanical devices used for codebreaking or artillery calculations; there were no more than a dozen or so in the world, the general population was unaware of them, they couldn't be used interactively, there were no plans to use them for text (a typical diary entry wouldn't have fit into the EDSAC's memory anyway), and the idea that a computer could fit in your pocket and let you edit anywhere within a document probably seemed stranger than the idea of spaceflight.

Science fiction seems to resonate strongest when it introduces new ideas which are reachable. Neal Stephenson’s Snow Crash seems to be particularly influencial. Sticking some plot line in the future isn’t enough.

I miss those moments I had when I was younger, reading Neuromancer, Snow Crash, and the Diamond Age for the very first time. Certainly they all played a driving role in orienting me toward what I ended up spending my life doing. The stories and the characters mattered, but the technology drowned it out.

Its just ignorance. For example William Gibson revealed he had absolutely no clue about computers when he wrote Neuromancer.

In the Foundation series, at least the first books, people were smoking, using newspapers (as in physical paper) and coins; there are many things out of place in that universe.

As a teenager reading it in the mid-90s, I didn't find any of those all that incongruous. Back then there were still smoking sections in most fancy restaurants; I read the (physical paper) newspaper every morning; and my parents would frequently dig for loose change in their pocket at the supermarket cashier.

Shows how far we've come in just ~25 years.

Yeah, now everybody smokes out of a USB stick.

I wouldn't consider it a mistake if Asimov predicted that by year 2000 we'd have flying cars or general AI. I don't see any clear argument available in 1950 about why this cannot happen.

However, not imagining that technology could fix mistakes in a document without discarding it, is a major blunder. I think if Asimov understood the world around him well and was good at analyzing how it evolves, he could have avoided it.

Sadly, I've seen many such mistakes in every sci-fi book I read; and given how little I know about the world, I probably see only a fraction of the mistakes that would be obvious to someone else.

Perhaps people who are good at thinking about the future rarely become sci-fi authors. Or perhaps I have been unlucky with my book selection -- if anyone can recommend a sci-fi novel where the world is well thought out, I'd be grateful.

"It's ironic that 50,000 years in the future, when humanity is spread across the Galactic Empire,"

The chance for this is not very big. In fact, there is a good chance that we live more like savages on a very low technological level or don't exists at all anymore.

I don’t understand the point you are trying to make. FTL is significantly harder than a rocket,creating worm holes are significantly harder that well a lot of things, teleportation, AI vs recognising cats in a photo and the list goes on. Nothing special about flying cars if anything it is more possible/closer

Re the ground motion, again I don’t understand planes do that.

No attack intended

I wonder how solicited sci-fi stacks up to unsolicited sci-fi, like:

"The Revolution, Brought to You by Nike" by Andrea Phillips: https://firesidefiction.com/the-revolution-brought-to-you-by...

I assume the writing quality would be the same. But it's not necessarily going to be output in the same type of format.

For example, game designers are known to have been hired by government agencies and corporations to create games that will help them understand side effects of policy proposals (especially complicated ones). But you probably wouldn't just box it up and sell it afterword.

In the sci-fi case, they need to try to predict something like "If we invented an AI powered shoe, how would people react?" etc. If the writer is any good, they'll ask for info about the brand's values etc, and the brand would supply user surveys to help the writer predict better.

Do you have an article in mind about the game designers hired for policy proposals? I’m curious to learn more about the practice.

I've noticed these stories on The Verge and all I can think is that this is the most cyberpunk twist of all: the very texts that might inspire a cultural shift against these entities are instead repurposed and weaponized by capital to support their continued reign.

For more along this train of thought, I recommend "Capitalist Realism: Is There No Alternative?" by Mark Fisher: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalist_Realism:_Is_There_N...

I also highly, highly recommend "K-Punk" by the same author (now deceased, RIP): https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/mark-fishers-k-p...

R.I.P Mark Fisher. I am still shocked to see people die like that out of no where. (Presumably suicide)

Extremely succinct way of putting it, there. That's David Foster Wallace's conclusion in E Pluribus Unam too.

They should check anime and games.

Like Dennou Coil [0] with a nice vision of what life might be like when AR glasses and a persistent global "AR space" are as commonplace as smartphones today.

Numenera [1] that's set a billion (!) years in the future where science is beyond even our wildest imagining of magic.

And many more. They may not be relevant to Nike or Boeing specifically, but there are lots of really cool ideas for all kinds of fashion and tech.

[0] https://myanimelist.net/anime/2164/Dennou_Coil

[1] https://numenera.com

Dennou Coil definitely deserves more attention. Way more down to earth than Ghost in the Shell.

Even Adventure Time is pretty cool with futuristic fashiontech/techfashion.

This is nothing new.

I know a number of other SF writers who are professional futurists, with selling books as their side hustle; others who do consulting gigs for industry from time to time. In general, corporations pay more than publishers …!

Minus adoration and worship of fandom, it’s a matter of priorities!

A certain amount of cross-pollination is not unknown, either: https://www.popularmechanics.com/culture/a21238129/seveneves...

In the novel Footfall by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, the government employs science fiction writers to help them understand the invading aliens and predict what they'll think and do.

My first thought was this book. But the book treated this idea almost tongue in cheek. (the writers in the book were treated like royalty) And as a teen I thought this was a good idea, but as an adult I feel this is a marketing gimmick. :P

Both Niven and Pournelle are part of the SIGMA Forum, which is a real-life consortium of science fiction writers who consult with the government. While the Pentagon and the White House have flirted with the concept over the years, they generally haven’t had any significant policy impact, SDI aside.

A humours note on SDI, I read somewhere there Reagan made this up almost on the spot (or it was only ever "discussed" nothing actually planned in meetings) and left people in his administration scrambling to explain what he was talking about. (ie, he "announced" the star wars system in 83' but SDI didn't even get started until 84')

They literally claimed to have been responsible for the downfall of Russia and the end of the cold war.

https://youtu.be/34T8s0D-Fxo?t=2503

The US Government convened Hollywood action film writers and producers to speculate on terrorist attacks they hadn't foreseen:

https://www.foxnews.com/story/army-looks-to-hollywood-for-sc...

https://www.wired.com/2007/03/foiled-by-foia-/

That gives a new meaning to "security theater."

How about a mass hackjacking of flying cars?

Remember the crap Tom Clancy took after 9/11, so folks do sometimes blame writers for the actions of others, so asking scifi writers isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

Possible plot twist: The aliens follow the books too, in order to understand the human response?

Actually that seems like a highly likely plot twist.

I wonder if some alien species would appear as Vulcans if only to fit our expectations?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4xm7x052XQ

Hopefully they didn't see this version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXw6hC7hxBA

I think it's likely that if we were to see them as "alien" they would need to be the same or very very similar to human form. Otherwise, it's likely we'd just call them a beast of some sort. Would you say a Gorilla is alien to a Human? They're not that different. Would you say a Dolphin and a Human are too different? They both have the capacity for independent thought, a consciousness, and are self-aware.

I agree.

It would make sense that if you're going to make first contact.... you want to meet those folks on the most similar or relatable terms.

Humans read body language a lot and such. It would probabbly facilitate a lot of communication to emulate human behaviors and etc to get started. Reduce tensions, communicate better, etc.

Plot twist: The most accurate and prescient Sci fi author is a benevolent and shapeshifting alien.

That would be a very pleasant twist.

Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle (and other sci-fi writers) were engaged by the Reagan administration to counter the USSR during the cold war, leading to the "stars wars" Strategic Defence Initiative. Niven and Pournelle stated in a documentary that this was the cause of the collapse of the soviet union.

Perhaps shoes that don't explode and planes that don't nose dive?

Exactly. May be have good documentation, engineering practices and don't oversell a new model claiming "works exactly like the earlier model"?

Lol, I actually want shoes that don't have a manual, tbh.

Ok, my comment was in the context of airplane control systems/sensors/UIs, but yeah, more generally, things should fail softly

actually I would like that for my running shoes, I live in fear that changing shoe model would re-trigger knee issues, and I almost would like to always buy the same shoes.

Same for my hiking shoes. When some shoes work well, I buy several pairs out of fear of a new model replacing it.

I do the same thing with tennis shoes. If I like a pair I'll go back and buy 4 more pairs before they change the shoe the next year.

That all seems right in line with your typical sci-fi dystopian worldview, though

Are you suggesting that we should have exploding shoes and nose-diving planes to avoid a dystopia? :P

Your shoes and planes are safe, citizen. Ignore the lies by the treacherous Opposition.

Serious athletes hate it when sporting goods manufacturers "improve" their products, and accidentally end up making them worse due to not understanding what their customers actually valued. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

You could apply the same to a lot of software products and websites that constantly change their design without really improving.

Sounds kinda like this strategic forecasting group cofounded by Steward Brand, GBN had many awesome sci fi and cyberpunk authors in its retinue until 2013, both Gibson and Sterling if I recall but it's all described in the book The Art of the Long View https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network

I thought the exact same thing reading this -- this sort of science fiction prototyping reminds me of the kind of Scenario Planning practiced initially by Royal Dutch Shell, GE, and various militaries. GBN had a big business doing futures work for Fortune 100 companies for quite some time. This kind of engagement is pretty high-end business strategy work, but can be very compelling to a leadership team or a board that is working on long-term planning.

Clearly articulated potential futures can help large companies identify signals that a particular future is coming to pass or plan responses should that scenario become true.

In a world where technology seems to be "disrupting" almost every industry, it makes sense to me that science fiction futures would be especially relevant.

Yeah, it's hard to sell this to anyone except c-levels with the most discretionary of budgets, but it's very important work. FWIW it's nice to find someone else who's heard of this.

A few years ago Bruce Sterling was calling his sort of sci fi inspired strategic forecasting 'diagetic prototyping', or 'design fiction'. Less defense- or tech- oriented than film and product development. But it works in a similar way. We hire the oracles to inhale the vapors and tell us what they see.

https://www.wired.com/2011/02/design-fiction-diegetic-protot...

edit: I did work for monitor for a short time and my views don't necessarily reflect those of the organization

One of the issues I see with looking at science fiction for inspiration is that they are stories first, predictions second - they seem to gravitate towards ideas that make dramaturgical sense. Future technological or societal developments that would not make for interesting or relatable stories tend to get much less attention than those that do, regardless of how likely they are to actually happen.

For instance, character death still seems to be treated as a huge deal in a large number of popular science fiction franchises due to their usefulness as a storytelling device; despite their worlds being vastly technologically advanced than ours, death carries the same finality and graveness. Worlds where death has been engineered down to a mere inconvenience aren't unheard of, but seem to be pretty uncommon outside of very "hard" Sci-Fi. On the other hand, "robots" and "AIs" that think and talk at a level indistinguishable from humans (but the rest of the world being disproportionately un-advanced) seem to be all-too-common in popular franchises, again due to how handy they come in when telling stories.

I understand it's difficult to write relatable stories with a setting that aren't necessarily friendly with good storytelling, but we should at least be aware of the bias.

“capitalism incarnates hyperstitional dynamics at an unprecedented and unsurpassable level of intensity, turning mundane economic ‘speculation’ into an effective world-historical force”

"Hyperstition is a positive feedback circuit including culture as a component. It can be defined as the experimental (techno-)science of self-fulfilling prophecies. Superstitions are merely false beliefs, but hyperstitions – by their very existence as ideas – function causally to bring about their own reality. Capitalist economics is extremely sensitive to hyperstition, where confidence acts as an effective tonic, and inversely. The (fictional) idea of Cyberspace contributed to the influx of investment that rapidly converted it into a technosocial reality"

http://merliquify.com/blog/articles/hyperstition-an-introduc...

Not sure about that whole link but I find the idea very interesting. I often wonder how much of these things are self fulfilling prophecy since these large corps don't exactly have a large imagination and take from where they can.

it's called a long term roadmap: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_roadmap

Reminds me of the precogs in The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch

... not just their training materials?

if they like the predictions, they will make them come true...

Full circle.

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