Probably about as well as trying to predict the result of a coin toss.
So, 50%? :)
If that were actually the case, this model would be far and away the best ever developed!
I mean do you really think NCAA basketball games are just a random coin toss? If that were the case wouldn't more than 1 16 seed have won a game? Wouldn't more lower seeds have won the whole tournament? In that case theoretically every team has the same chance to win it all yet the lowest seed ever to win was an 8 seed.
Yeah tonmoy linked to the blog post that had the predictions. Unfortunately, the model pretty much predicted a higher probability for the higher seeded team in the matchup which lead to some relatively expected predictions. If I remember correctly, it led to a pretty average percentile (50-60) when I submitted it to the ESPN leaderboards.
He has predictions from 2017 and 2018 in this blog post I think