Musk: Osborning His Model 3
mondaynote.com
mondaynote.com
Tesla's currently in a weird situation where it is in a local minimum of US purchases that it needs to book to make the quarter, while it has unsatisfied demand in EU and elsewhere but the delivery pipeline is not mature yet. Once that global shipping pipeline starts to fire on all cylinders (pun intended), it probably gives them enough runway to get to the Model Y without too much worry of shrinking demand in the US.
What's the pun? Electric cars don't use exploding dinosaurs, so there are no fires in cylinders here.
And if you read the reddit thread, you will find exactly what you suggested; there were several people waiting for the model Y announcement who decided to order the 3 immediately instead.
Do they really. They're basically the same size and visually quite similar (There seems no reasonable definition of SUV where the Model Y would qualify). I cannot think of many scenarios where the choice between a Model 3 and a Model Y is an easy and obvious choice (assuming both are actually available at roughly the same price point).
I think JLG's point is that many potential 3 buyers may well prefer the higher styling of the Y, and the data in the marketplace is definitely demonstrating that SUV-type models are incredibly popular.
Clearly people who need 7 seats will wait for the Y. Are people thinking about a 3 going to be put off by 7 seats? Probably not in massive numbers.
Their popularity, at least here in Europe, has nothing to do with their similarities to true SUVs. Instead, people buy them because they want something that looks like an SUV (or true off-roader) but they can't afford the purchase or running costs. The Nissan Qashqai, Citroen C-Crosser, VW T-Roq etc sell well not because they have seven seat options, or whatever, but because they look sturdier/safer than their traditional rivals.
That's the point of the Monday Note piece: the market has shown that there's strong demand for crossover cars and, in the author's opinion, buyers might wait for their prefered format of car rather than settle for the sedan today.
That depends very much on the particular models. Some, especially smaller, hatchback models have tiny boots compared to similarly sized sedans.
It seems to me there are basically two kind of hatchbacks: the ones that are basically a sedan with the boot cut off (very visible with the original VW Golf and Jetta): they have a smaller boot than a comparable sedan because they are shorter; and the hatchback that's a sedan where the cabin is extended to the end of the boot: these are longer hatchbacks, same size as sedans, but with more space. A more aerodynamic estate, basically.
What like VW up sized?
The Ford Focus has a saloon variant. That's probably the smallest current size in western Europe? I'm fairly sure the Vauxhall Nova had a saloon variant back in the day. There are probably smaller saloons available in eastern Europe. Probably not for the smallest city cars though.
"A more aerodynamic estate, basically" That is an estate. Brands may add branding, such as sports back or fast back. Still an estate.
Advantage of a hatchback is you get more room to put things in. In a saloon your posting and sliding things in, a hatchback gives you room to work, folding seats down more than offsets any loss of cargo capacity.
My wife once managed to get a 2.4 meter long couch into a Matiz. That was some impressive magic.
A hatchback is simply a car that has a hatch in the back. I suppose an estate is also technically a hatchback, though I've never seen it called that. Estates are bigger ad give you more room to put things in, but hatchbacks, at least the larger variety, is still more practical than a sedan.
Hatchback/estate is basically branding yes. You do generally get a longer boot (normally using the sedan base), and tend to get a squarer flatter loading area.
I'd go for a hatchback every time too, as you say, more practical.
Well done to your wife btw.... Where were you though :P
These used to be popular in Australia, we called 'em "station wagons". They've all but disappeared now, though, replaced by crossover SUV / soft-roaders.
I read your previous comment as suggesting the reason why people bought SUVs was because they were hatchbacks. Did I misunderstand?
Your original parent was talking about SUVs and crossovers specifically. Not all hatchbacks are SUVs / crossovers, so it gets confusing when you start mixing the 2
Compare and contrast sedans vs. station wagons (although the market segment that used to buy station wagons has now gone to mini-SUV things which are basically higher-set station wagons).
So Tesla will likely have to build a Giga Factory 4 in Europe or America to really meet the Western demands. Such factory, which is still not formally announced, needs to be built first and will not produce large numbers until 3-4 years from now.
Apart from the obvious production constraints, Tesla has the constraint of expanding the supercharger network and the constraint of expanding their workshops, so that they can service the huge amount of new cars on the roads.
Edit: I think I'll write link based rss filter, it seems that all medium links are either from medium.com or they match this regexp: /^http[s]+:\/\/[a-zA-Z0-9]+\.[a-z]{2,3}\/[a-zA-Z0-9-]+-[a-f0-9]{12}$/
> germans will never come out with cost-competitive electric cars
1. because they don't have a Giga factory
2.because they would cannibalise their own petrol car demand
3. they want to push hybrids as the future but its never going to be cost effective as a pure electric tesla
4. china could level the playing field but due to large tariffs, it is unlikely they would make a significant impact in the next 5 years in US and EU.
> tesla stands to make the most amount of money from its performance variants of the model 3 ( which is a cheaper porche in terms of performance). producing cheaper model 3 puts pressure on the balance sheet by unveiling the model y it reduces some of that pressure but keeps the company profitable for longer.
Unless Tesla is able to cut the Model 3 price by about 50% they won't be of much relevance in the grand scheme. They will remain a luxury brand similar to Apple in the customer electronics market.
However, they won't be as successful. Apple's products are still cheap enough that many low-income customers who realistically don't have the money to afford an iphone still buy one. I don't think this will happen with cars. For most people cars will always be a tool first and an accessory second.
Especially if you're in Tesla's position where they're seeking economies of scale and efficiency over time.
That is the path to becoming more than a niche player, in this case.
They are already relevant. And the fact that they are pricer but still have demand shows that they are successful right now, and probably in the future.
>But when it comes to all-electric you have to make a ground-up redesigned car to make it efficient, else you would have to increase weight by adding more batteries hence more weight hence more batteries. the delta in performance is very large or becomes a chasm.
> Tesla only builds 200+ mile cars not to market it as a long drive car but more to reduce the number of times the battery needs to be recharged. A good rule of thumb is If you reduce the range by half you reduce the life of the battery by half.
Of course they will. All car companies need to produce electric cars to meet the fleet emissions standards set by the EU and China, and because countries are talking about banning the sale of new ICE vehicles in the future. So if they want to stay in the car business they need to produce battery electric cars, hydrogen fuel cell cars, or both.
You can pre-order a Volkswagen ID hatchback from the 8th of May:
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/03/13/volkswagen-id-hatchback-...
Some other upcoming cost-competitive battery electrics from Volkswagen are the Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk
And the SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8
Volkswagen isn't investing 80 billion euros in electric car production for the fun of it. They're in it to win it:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insig...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/business/volkswagen-elect...
> VW group made 240+B Euros revenue in 2018, how much of it do you think they would make from selling electric vehicles in the next 5 to 10 years.
> How many trained/skilled people and R&D do you think is needed to make a car which is comparable to model3 in spec/performance/price from the ground up (not im not including sports cars because they can manage to sell few sports cars at a loss just to spite tesla). i would be surprised if the answer is anything less than 10 to 15 years.
Yes you can. Believe in yourself.
> Once derisively called Cute Utes, CUV’s have become a wildly popular car genre, so much so that Ford will stop selling conventional sedans — with the exception of the still-loved Mustang — due to the “unstoppable crossover onslaught”.
The author doesn't argue that they are the same, but that one is cannibalizing the other.
Source?
They said multiple times that they have enough cash already to start and ramp up Model Y production.
NB: the Nevada Gigafactory is already built (that's where Model Y will be assembled), they already got the money for the Shanghai factory (enough for 3K/week vehicles and battery packs at end of this year). They will soon announce the European factory (hints of European production for end of 2020 in the Model Y press releases, probably financed with local bank loans just like in China).
We've heard "Tesla is done" since 2009 and yet, they keep eating into the competition's profits, and keep increasing their market share in the EV market at an evergrowing speed.