So Mr. "There will be black swans that we can never predict but have great consequences" tries to predict the future now? He should be wiser than that.
The whole point of this little exercise was to make predictions based on things that aren't "fragile". I like this idea of extrapolating from robust things (coffee, bikes) and thinking about what are the things require so much "fragile order" that they'll go away with energy crises and pandemics.