This is a Emperor's New Clothes situation. No one dares to say how dumb this is, in fear of passing for a Luddite
Maybe at the best end, a barista makes a better cuppa than a good machine but most of the places near where I am now wouldn't pass a blind test Vs the automated coffee machine at my office.
Automated coffee-making exist, and works just fine.
Still, €1 vending machines haven't killed the €3 coffee shops/stands/trucks. Empirically, people want the (subjective) experience, not cheap coffee.
This is a novel, theatrical way of doing the experience.
Besides those relatively banal points... it's kind of cool that they're putting robotic arms into public-facing consumer land. Not sure it leads anywhere, but I'd get a cuppa and watch it work as I sip.
I keep making the point every time it gets raised in a "the robots are coming for our jobs" thread, but we had the technology to vend fast food to people putting coins in slots before we had McDonalds etc, whose laser focus on margins proved the business case for counter staff and killed off most of the Automats. Needless to say, the perception of a pleasant coffee shop offering good service worth paying extra for and superior quality coffee is more intrinsically linked to its staff than the fast food industry.
In terms of theatrics and novelty this super-expensive machine is a massive improvement on the vending machine and can probably justify a $3 coffee instead of a $1 coffee, but it isn't going to kill the traditional coffee shop either, because the novelty is directly proportional to how rare they are....
McDonalds is returning to vending machines - not for the burger manufacturing, but for the order generation and payment:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2018/06/07/mc...
I'm sure it can be done cheaper, but not $200 cheap.
The problem is that Nespresso already exists, and is good for 95% of the market. The rest of the 5% of espresso aficionados demand tons of features that are not cheap to produce, and the market is inherently not that big. There are machines like https://decentespresso.com/overview (I believe they picked up the IP of an infamously undelivered Kickstarter) and https://www.breville.com/us/en/products/espresso/bes980.html
It seems plausible, you know, that someone could make a machine like that, but at the end of the day it's all about the espresso head and quality of the build.
By the time they figured it out, I think, they were no better than well-established prosumer models in price and performance.
If you look into the audiophile community, there are people that have gone crazy spending absurd amounts of money on equipment that's basically a placebo. It fails on blind tests all the time.
I bet it's the same with this coffee.
Luckily, none of them involve spending thousands of dollars on ultra-premium equipment whose advantages are completely imaginary.
I understand how an espresso machine works. If somebody is charging you five figures for one, they're trying to pull a fast one.
Same answer: People are desperate to be fooled.
These are not for your kitchen, they are machines for commercial use. Even the fully manual ones easily cost mid-thousands.
The question is, is the end result coming out of that machine measurably better than what comes out of a no-frills machine?
My bet is that it isn't.
It's not just the coffee that's "the end result."
Do you also go to museums and say "I could have done that" to every painting?
That doesn't really follow. If I think five-figure coffee makers that perform a rather simple mechanical function are overpriced, I should start selling them myself?
> Same with high-end audio gear.
I'm talking about equipment whose qualities cannot be measured nor perceived in a double-blind study. Pure make-belief:
"Audiophile publications frequently describe differences in quality which are not detected by standard audio system measurements and double blind testing, claiming that they perceive differences in audio quality which cannot be measured by current instrumentation,[26] and cannot be detected by listeners if listening conditions are controlled,[27] but without providing an explanation for those claims."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audiophile#Controversies
> Do you also go to museums and say "I could have done that" to every painting?
No, I've got better things to do. Having said that, modern art certainly is rife with pretense.
In the long run price difference is well worth it.
[1] https://medium.com/@BenEinstein/keurig-accidentally-created-...
When you start getting into the $1000+ range, it seems like you're mostly paying for the following:
1) more precise temperature control (PID control)
This is becoming less of an issue because the heat exchange systems on consumer devices are becoming a lot better. My machine is ready to go in under a minute, although they recommend you wait about 20 minutes for it to warm up. Some of the higher-end machines with a dual boiler even recommend a 45-minute warm-up time, though.
2) ability to steam milk and pull shots at the same time (double boiler)
This seems to be a big differentiator because then the dual boiler comes into play (dedicated boiler for espresso, dedicated boiler for steam wand). On my device, I simply pull my shot, then steam my milk after. This all happens in under 1.5 minutes. I simply don't need to do them at the same time, but I can understand why you would want this feature in a commercial machine where you need to be moving fast and serving a lot of customers at a business.
3) milk steamer is often quicker on $1000 machines (a few seconds instead of ~15-30 like on mine)
Again, we are talking about maybe 15 seconds of time saving here.
4) water-line hookup so you don't need to refill a water tank
My machine has a water tank, but I only need to refill it every two or three days. I usually have two or three double espressos each day, one or two of those are lattes. So the water hook-up is of no use to me.
5) fancy styling / italian design & looks
I think my machine has decent styling, but it doesn't look nearly as high quality as something like the Rocket machines: https://rocket-espresso.com/.
I researched this heavily before buying, and watched a lot of videos here: https://www.youtube.com/user/SeattleCoffeeGear. I was very close to buying a Rocket machine and it would have set me back well over $1000. Anyway, that youtube channel sometimes does blind taste tests between hundred dollar machines and ones in the thousands of dollars. They often cannot tell the difference.
This is a great one: $300 vs $3000 machine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuIOlsdDg_o
Having watched this (https://www.businessinsider.com/robot-barista-reveals-danger...) I tend to agree with you. Coffee making is a business of diminishing returns and quickly rising costs. You can do an acceptable espresso with a $200 espresso machine. However to make an amazing cappuccino/latte you need to go to at least $5000-$6000 price point. Separate boilers, precise pressure monitoring and all that jazz. The reason for that is that steaming milk is not a very easy job for a robot.
http://www.gaggiausersgroup.com/index.php?topic=1484.0
Remember that a proper grinder is at least as important as a decent espresso machine. I've been through a few but have finally found the excellent Rancilio Rocky Doserless, which was also refurbished.
A few other accessories like a bottomless portafilter, a knock box, and a milk pitcher for steaming, some good beans and you're pretty much set.
I think my whole setup was less than $600 and I have never regretted it. It takes some time to dial in your grind but you'll be beating your local barista's shots within a few months (and at a significant discount).
Somehow I imagined the robot going through the classic steps you might see a barista perform: grounding coffee and putting it in the portafilter, tamping, using the steam wand, etc. The things that might make the difference between a handmade coffee and one from a standard coffee machine.
It usually makes more sense to make a coffee machine that does those steps internally. It's easier in the controlled environment internal to a machine. A espresso coffee vending machine seems to be doing some of them already, like grinding the coffee.
All it's lacking is a cup transport system like a conveyor belt to put the cup in from a cup stockpile and to later serve it. You could even automate recovering the cup, cleaning it and restoking it.
Is there strong customer preference for a robot arm serving the cup rather than a conveyor belt ?
I'd guess for the wow effect. Such a system is much harder to calibrate and maintain than a regular automation line. But a lot sexier also. Maybe the perception and experience of getting the cup from a robotic arm is more appealing to customers than getting it from a conveyor belt?
In my opinion, in order for robots to be mass profitable they either need to be faster, better or run longer. This machine seems to do none of those things. Novelty factor only has value whilst it's novel.
Agreed its probably a novelty though.
(In the Netherlands it's probably three cups an hour, with looking at the ceiling or the floor in between).
Espressos? probably. Large lattes? Not so much. Steaming the milk would kill the throughput too much.
I would guess that the Italian would do a much higher proportion of shorter and smaller drinks.
Also drive through includes multiple drinks and food items as well crammed into that 40 or so seconds.
When timing the serial steps of making a drink, it takes about a minute from start to finish, but their process is to batch and pipeline drinks so that they generally handle 3-5x drinks per batch in a pipeline (repeatable beverage routine), and this is for a lone barista pumping out hot beverages. The other 4-5 people are usually on cashier duty, and drive through duty.
I haven't been able to find any figures excluding queuing, but these figures would seem to cast doubt. Unless Dunkin Donuts are doing the same orders in <30s.
If it's the M class version then it's rated to IP67[2], and it can do all of the above while underwater or in a sandstorm.
[1]: https://us.mitsubishielectric.com/fa/en/products/industrial-...
In a controlled environment this is perfectly fine, where dust and moisture can be controlled - but we're talking about moisture from steam coming off of the coffee, the possibility of coffee spillage on the machine, organic dust from nearby humans, non-clean power supplies and loads which may fall outside of usage rating (i.e. obstacles or heavy loads or continued use close to its maximum).
Honestly I would be surprised if it's still working in a year in these kinds of conditions.
Another issue with smart motors that generally isn't discussed is that they wear out (can only handle lower loads) and lose accuracy. I've used magnetic encoded smart motors for a few projects and after two years you can't rely on them anymore - and this is easy work for the servos (occasional usage).
I don't get the "they took our jobs" vibe from this video. Especially considering these things probably come with support contracts (and troubleshooting, maintenance, etc) that cost more than an employee, because it's specialized hardware.
The 25K is likely just the robot arm itself, and not even the espresso machine, grinder, enclosure, payment system, and bean hopper/dispenser.
You need to keep the premium that Starbucks customers pay for and that is using traditional methods with lots of customization options. Making coffee at Starbucks is sort of a performance, and that is remaining because that is what people are paying for.
You are misunderstanding Starbuck and the premium coffee experience completely.
I think that something like this will succeed at the medium-high end. But "artisan" premium coffee that is hand made at an espresso machine will remain but it will likely get even more expensive.
Remember that we have already automated pretty fully the low end coffee market with Nespresso, Kurig, etc.
I think you are completely wrong, there is a market for this.
I pay €29K (gotta love the exchange rate, right now) for a machine which will replace a worker that I probably pay for year the same service. Sure it's not "artisanal" but, given enough time to tweak the machine's behaviours, it could be.
For the lower-end markets, definitely, it would be a god-send (in the ROI sense); however, I think your arguments of dissuasion that Starbucks would never do this are akin to the arguments of high-end car manufacturers never moving to automation to build vehicles.
Put succinctly: If the end-goal of business is to increase the profit-marigin (which it is), then someone, somewhere will find a way to make that happen and this would be, in general, no exception to that rule. Eventually, they'll hit that sweet spot to make it work; even if it's slightly sub-par from the quality of today's product.
Starbucks really muddled the waters during their rapid expansion about which customer they‘re targeting, and at some point they will be forced to pick.
That’s a pretty bold assertion. It seems to be doing just fine without having been automated.
Not to make it equivalent but in Japan and other places people get their coffee from cans. All they want is a little pick me up routine in the morning or whenever.
Then they decided that moving into every big box store and rest stop was important.
... and good luck to find a location that has customers needing 120 coffees/hout for 12 h each day of the year.
> Today, an industrial robotic arm can cost anywhere from $25,000 to $400,000. [1]
[1] https://insights.globalspec.com/article/4788/what-is-the-rea...
Anyway, Mitsubishi is well respected and this is a very good arm.
[1]: https://us.mitsubishielectric.com/fa/en/products/industrial-...
That's an annual salary of a coffee server
Employees do no more than employees at say, McDonald's. In fact probably less. Push a button, right amount of coffee pours into cup. Move cup. Push button, right amount of milk pours into cup. Move cup.
Replacing people by robots will make no difference to the final product.
What we need to wait and see is whether consumers want to be served by a human or whether they don't care. We'll have an answer very soon because for fast food and coffee shops there's just a couple of years before humans become operationally optional.
Personally, in a high end place where staff adds value I will care, but I couldn't care less in a Costa Coffee or McDonald's.
I don't know what places you're talking about. Everywhere I've seen they use an espresso machine which isn't a case of 'push a button, right amount of coffee pours into cup', even places like Costa.
Even when they use en espresso machine (because perhaps you ordered an espresso), it makes no difference to the final product if that is automated entirely. A standard espresso machine requires a human only because it cannot automatically reload coffee.
The simple fact is that at this point humans are really only there for the 'experience', not to create the final product.
(I can see you editing your comment out from underneath me by the way.)
Humans in Costa don't add any value to your cup.
They might make you feel better, though, so we'll see if people are fine with being served by a robot (as I already wrote).
But, please keep focusing on the literal.
When pointing at the Moon...
> In most of those chain coffee shops what you get is a coffee vending machine with a human arm to move the cup.
What I'm adding is that anyone with eyes can go to a chain coffee shop and see that they aren't using a vending machine.
You could already have pure vending machines serve what baristas serve you at Starbucks, Costa, whatever, you would get exactly the same product and it's close to what happens in reality. But people want a coffee shop experience, not a vending machine experience so I think moving robots will be a thing (unless people really insist on interacting with humans)
Sometimes, the service is part of the coffeeshop/bar experience, but seeing stuff being done is a fairly minor part of that, at least for me. Instead, it’s a quick chat or a recommendation, neither of which a moving arm really provides. You might be right that the apparent labor, either by a human or moving arm, also masks the (large) margins on a coffee drink. I hadn’t really thought of that as “the experience” (vs comfy chairs, decent music, and a pleasant murmur of other conversations) but you might be onto something there.
However, I think the main reason vending machine coffee isn’t popular is because it’s historically been pretty bad. The newer ones (Nespresso, etc) do make decent coffe, but you can still get some vile sludge at hospitals and rest stops.