Am seeing early signs of an instagram decrease. People are deleting their accounts, posting less, and unfollowing people.
I think the switch to stories had an impact. Positive at first, but negative indirectly, as it introduced the “mute” mechanism. At first you could just do this with stories, but now you can mute someone’s posts while still “following” them.
Before, on instagram, if someone followed you, you really knew they followed you. So people sort of self-policed their posts, as they knew they’d get unfollowed if they were excessive. And there was a lot of engagement on posts, because 100% of followers saw it.
But now you can follow but not follow. So on the one hand some people are pushing more posts, on the other hand you have a lot of non-genuine followers. This discourages posting.
I have more followers but fewer likes than before, and I also follow more people and see less. The platform feels more hollow than it used to, in the same way facebook does.