I agree with your pragmatism (and admire it). I would only urge you to add a couple of tools to your toolbelt for analysis:
1. Open source politics aka is the project viable? 2. Where's the money coming from? Aka, what products/companies build solutions off the tech? 3. Look for growth, not survival. If a company is not growing, it is dying.
These extra three test "gates" help me select what technology I will use, learn, and bet my career on....