Comment by gotocake | Hacker News Reader

Comment by gotocake | Hacker News Reader

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Human drivers are just mechanical turks to build market share while self-driving cars become commercially viable.

Don’t they have to exist before we worry about commercial viability? You’re not the only one talking like FSDV’s are just minutes away, when the truth is that when you cut through the hype and wishful thinking, they’re an indeterminate period of time away. The conversation around this subject reads like people in the 30’s planning for the dawn of the fusion age.

The technology is not there yet, we don’t know when it willl be or if the avenues being explored now will lead there. Anyone who tries to tell you otherwise is trying to sell you something, like shares in a fundamentally unprofitable endeavor. I get it, self-driving cars would be very cool, and maybe we’ll even live to see them. Maybe not. It’s still a crazy company that can only profit if nonexistent technology emerges quickly! On the other hand I have some shares in my new space elevator to sell...

Aren't a few of the big players already piloting consumer-accessible taxi programs?

IMO, the stuff which has already been demonstrated is a bit too creepily good for comfort, even if we're talking about limited Tesla autopilot.

Sure, but we’re still easily 5 years from “all traffic, all weather, all situations” car AI, which is necessary for fully autonomous vehicles.

They already have the cheapest solution for having a driver and a car go around town, so sending drivers with their “autonomous” cars in good conditions is an impressive step, but insufficient for full autonomy and not enough to fix their business problems — they need to be able to send the cars in real life situations with no driver.

So 5 years of technology and 5 years of regulation before widespread adoption is a long time for Uber to have to be spending investor money before they spend investor money on autonomous car fleets in every major city. (Or are they going to lease cars from other people? — it may be then that the cost of leasing vehicles from others never comes low enough.)

The better hope for their investors seems to be the rumor they’re profitable in large, established cities and their costs are expansions and turf wars.

Is it possible that all the uber-style transport in a single city could be self-driving in the next 10 years? What would you say the probability of this happening would be?

I'm curious as to if there's a brigade for saying this, as it seems to be in everywhere. Aren't self driving cars on the road right now? Can't I grab one in las vegas this very instant?

https://www.popsci.com/self-driving-cars-cities-usa

The technology is very much there and they are spot on that the gig economy was always meant to be temporary. Self driving cars are being used already and doing significantly better than human drivers.

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