I think it depends largely on the market you're in. In a rural area (or something far enough away from a large city) and may not have a lot of supply of software developers: credentials likely don't come into play as much. Raw experience may suffice.

But more populated areas will mean larger talent pools. Unless you're in a tech hub or a fast growing mid-size city, the amount of software jobs might not serve the pool. Credentials will matter more. Practically speaking :)