Comment by espeed | Hacker News Reader

Comment by espeed | Hacker News Reader

Foreign actors hacking some servers and systems and placing malware is one thing -- that's been going on for a long time, and it's not unexpected -- but having the insight and expertise to run a campaign that exerts more influence than the entire media and PR industry put together, well that's something else. That would require something above and beyond -- we're not that fragile.

Consider this...

NB: These are the same questions I posed in a thread a few days ago (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19282809).

Do you know the size of the Russian economy? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia

How many individual US states have an economy larger than Russia? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_between_U.S._states...

And the size of the PR industry? https://www.statista.com/topics/3521/public-relations/

We invented the modern PR industry, AI, and social media. And the PR industry has been perfecting the design of campaigns for 100 years. That's our bailiwick.

You think Russia outclassed us at our own game, at home on our own platforms, on the biggest stage, in the highest stakes game of all?

And then to pull that off with no one noticing or countering it in the most measured world of all time?

That would be like the Russian basketball team [0] beating the US Dream Team [1] in all of our major sports combined, at the same time. Not gonna happen.

And to what extent would a feat like that even be possible for someone from the US? And if some super-genius person or group of US citizens with the combination of intimate understanding, sophistication and skill did exist, then why wouldn't they just work for the campaign? And if one in the US could pull that off, why think Russia could?

[0] Russian Basketball https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_national_basketball_tea...

[1] US Dream Team https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_men%27s_Oly...

To win a U.S. election you don't need millions of votes. You need tens of thousands of votes in strategic locations. It was something like 50,000 votes in three states in 2016 that determined the outcome of the election. Clinton had roughly 3 million more votes but they weren't in the right places. An influence campaign doesn't have to "exerts more influence than the entire media and PR industry put together". It has to move a few tens of thousands of votes in the right places. Also, it's easier to win any game by cheating. U.S. actors are less free to cheat since they will be subject to U.S. law if they are caught. If scales are balanced with 200 metric tons in each pan, you can through off the balance by chucking a hammer in one pan of the scale.

Besides, it seems like the U.S. intelligence agencies are better positioned than random people on Hacker News to assess the extent and influence of the Russian influence campaign. What do they say?

Who's the random person in this scenario you or me?

And regarding my assessment and their response, that's why I asked the questions. I have a pretty good history of being on the mark [1], and every time I've talked to them, they've appreciated my perspective. Consider all things, that's the job -- that's what you want -- just like anyone else in strategic positions, they like hard questions.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5897654

I think you have some very valid points :)

But, tech is not like basketball. If you automate an approach for exerting influence you can scale differently.

That said, I agree Western democracies are not that fragile :)

Honestly, I wonder why Russia dares poke the bear.. they are unlikely to exert significant influence -- but they are likely to be painted as villains and voters will remember that.

Have you run a simple marketing campaign or media campaign before? -- to make the idea less abstract let's add some specifics and paint a simple picture -- imagine you're going up against just one dominant US corporation -- let's say it's a mortgage bank, a financial company, or a national retail chain. Do you know hard it would be to move the needle just one bit, and how many billions are spent by equally large corporations competing against each other trying? Now imagine two of the biggest corporations in the world competing -- Microsoft vs Google or Walmart vs Amazon -- these companies are so massive they have virtually unlimited resources, more resources than most countries. Imagine going up against any one of them. Now imaging going up against all them, and then every other US corporation and intelligence agency combined. All the while essentially going undetected, and then winning the market against all of them at same time? To argue that feat would be possible or even plausible, that's essentially what you would be saying.

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