If you worry about any speedup in password cracking that is less than an order of magnitude, your password was too close to failing to start with. Make your password 5% longer, which will make it at least 20x slower to crack, and then you won't have to care if "20x" gets reduced to "15x".
You may say "It's not harmless to give up 25%. What if I give up 25% several times? That could make even a good password become insecure." but there's a limit to how much speedup someone can get from knowing the structure of your password. And the best way to evaluate the strength of a password is to assume that all the structure is public. So I can say that my typical passwords, being 20 mixed-case letters and numbers, all have a security of 2^119. It's possible that an attacker that uses the wrong algorithm would have to guess even more, but I'm not just worried about a clumsy attacker, I'm also worried about a moderately-high-quality attacker. It's a bad idea to depend on that extra .1 bit I could get with this character set, or that extra .4 bits I could get with a smaller character set. Just assume the length is known.
And that's fine, we can have different opinions on that part.
But "probably already short enough to brute force" is definitely not right. That percentage depends entirely on character set, not the length of your password. If your password is just numbers, then n-1 always has 10% as many combinations, whether your password is 5 characters long or 200. If you meant "probably already weak enough to brute force" that's not true either. Lots of passwords with mixed case and numbers and symbols are very short and pretty weak. Lots of passwords with only letters are very long and quite strong because they're made-up phrases. You can't guess the strength of a password just by knowing the percentage of [length n-1 combos] / [length n combos].
But we don't seem to be resolving anything so I'll just hope you have a good week.
Please point to the part of my statement which reflects this idea.
This seems to say that a small character pool, aka "n-1 containing a significant percentage of possible combinations", implies that your password is "probably already short enough to brute force".
So small character pool means that "probably" the password is short/weak.
I'm saying that a small character pool does not imply that a password is "probably" short/weak.
And to be very clear: Using the size of the character pool to say it's "probably" weak is a form of "reliably predict[ing] if n is sufficient".
What am I misreading?
> So small character pool means that "probably" the password is short/weak.
I really don't know how you came to that conclusion. I never claimed any dependence between the character pool length and password length. They're obviously completely separate properties.
Right?
That percentage comes entirely from the character pool.
So character pool -> percentage -> probably short enough to brute force.
What am I reading wrong? The only assumption I made is "compared to a password with length n", because what else would you be comparing length "n-1" to. Otherwise it's a direct quote.