It's <50%, but chances of winning the lottery are 1 in 292 million.
I'd bet if you picked a promising company (say Series B+ on the breakout list) your likelihood of a positive outcomes is >=10%.
Not high, but very different than lottery tickets.
I'd bet if you picked a promising company (say Series B+ on the breakout list) your likelihood of a positive outcomes is >=10%.
Not high, but very different than lottery tickets.
Regardless, at least a lottery's odds are fixed. For a startup not only do you have a direct impact on the outcome, but there's near-infinite number of internal and external factors that can make a company fail, or, very rarely, succeed.
I think that's one of the big selling points on options: It's a lottery ticket but you are directly capable of affecting your odds. Theoretically if a group of 100 people all feel that way, they should be able to do some amazing things!