That is the hypothetical reason, but in practice, what are the services that low-tax states consume disproportionately? In WA state I can't think of any, other than federal programs that use the land (like nuclear containment)
1) Transportation. Most spending in this area is by the federal government. But dense areas that rely on public transportation have to rely heavily on state and local taxes to support projects, whereas many roads, bridges, and even intersections are built in suburban and rural areas almost entirely with federal dollars. This is part of why our country has so little public transportation versus other countries. The federal government spends disproportionately on roads, which benefits certain areas and segments of the population a lot more than others.
2) Healthcare. Many states began expanding healthcare after the Affordable Care Act brought in Medicaid expansion. This is almost entirely paid for by the federal government. Higher-tax states already had higher levels of healthcare spending through programs to expand coverage. Some states like Massachusetts already had models like the ACA in place. Many higher-tax states have unionized state and local workers who are provided with high-quality healthcare and insurance. In other states where a lot of outsourced, it is a much different picture.