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It depends a lot on the context. If I'm talking to a good friend and start off something with "I hate to say it but..." or "I don't mean to offend, but..." then chances are, yeah, I'm not lying. I really don't want to have to say it, but they're my friend and there's something I think needs to be said because they need to hear it. It doesn't mean I secretly want to offend them. It means "the truth hurts sometimes, and I don't want to hurt you because you're my friend, but because you are my friend, I feel I have a responsibility to tell you." It's nothing less than I would expect from them.

Your example usage of "to be honest" is not of the same kind as the "to be honest" described in the article. In "Look, to be honest, I really don't know why the server crashed yet" the TBH serves to assure the listener that you're giving the truth even when you'd benefit from a lie. The article describes usage of TBH that ostensibly serves to inform the listener that you're about to give them the truth even though it might be painful to say and hear, but actually serves as as justification to say something intentionally painful.

Compare "Look, to be honest, I really don't know why the server crashed yet" to "Look, to be honest, that dress does make you look fat".

I'm not saying that I agree with the OP, but aren't "rules" like this really heuristics? Psychological tricks like this, if they're effective (and joking aside, I really have no opinion on their efficacy), would be useful in situations where you wonder if the other person is lying. That is, they're clues when you're already on the alert.

If you're talking collaboratively to someone about the cause of a server crash, or engaged in a friendly conversation about a movie, you're not on guard. If you were a manager talking to two employees about a sexual harassment allegation, though, you might want all the tools you could muster.

Although, as I wrote about the OP's tells not being applicable to friendly conversation I realized that the most egregious liar I've ever known was my best drinking buddy in college. The more beer he drank, the more outrageous (and hilarious) his tales would get.

But he always telegraphed when he had stepped firmly onto terra fantasia with the phrase "Guys... without a WORD of a LIE I was on the bus last week when this doberman pincer came on..." etc.

We never called him on it though, because we were afraid he would stop.

I agree with your entire post, but...[1]

I'm not saying that the deal is off, but we're going to have to really work on clauses 3 and 4 before we can move forward.

I interpret that statement as "unless you come my way on clauses 3 and 4, the deal is off."

For me, it's hard not to read two statements, joined with a 'but', and not interpret the first statement as a 'lie'.

[1] irony intended

How about something like: I'm not saying that I didn't enjoy the movie, but the action scene was a bit over the top

Exactly.

I'd read this as; the person actually did enjoy the movie .. but could have enjoyed it more if it wasn't so OTT. No deception involved.

To read this kind of thing, it's always important to think about what the person's intent is. If someone's behaving in a Machiavellian way, it's _all_ about intent (and possible incentive).

I would just say, "The action scene was a bit over the top." If the person hears that and thinks I didn't like the movie, that's their mistake. Your first phrase still leaves the door open for you not liking the movie and it adds no clarifying information.

When someone prefixes a sour message with a positivei qualifier, the intent isn't to lie, but to reassure you.

If I plainly stated "We're going to have to work on clauses 3 and 4 before we can move forward," you may believe that the issues with these clauses are more severe than I actually believe them to be. Or you may believe that my patience has run out. The qualifier "I'm not saying the deal is off" is intended to express a sense of furthered interest in making the deal work. I "invested" more in my statement as a gesture of good will. An indication that I'm not being dismissive. Have you ever had someone ask you why you were "being so short"? Brevity shows a lack of interest or patience.

It's called subtlety, and it seems lost on a lot of people these days.

Actually putting, "I'm not saying the deal is off..." makes me think the deal might be off if I don't 3 & 4. Your other statement, without the qualifier, simply makes me think we need to work on 3 & 4.

The qualifier in this case seems to be an attempt to prime the listener with the fact that this deal is not a sure thing still.

And people are misunderstood all the time. You'll read in to it whatever you want to, but it won't change the way I feel when I say it. It's your job, as the listener, to judge the way I mean it. The simple fact that I have said it doesn't make it one way or the other. Those who are adept at these types of judgements are the ones who move deals forward. Those who cannot get stuck in a cycle misinterpretation that results in a failure to negotiate an agreement.

This isn't an example of a lie, it's an example of a threat.

I think the author isn't saying "These words always mean someone is lying" as much as she's saying "When people hear these words, they tend to assume you're lying". Yeah, some of them might be stretching it, but I think the author's basic point is right on.

For instance, when you say "I'm not saying that you murdered her, I really don't think there's enough evidence to make such a case at this point, but the evidence really doesn't look great for you right now", you might mean that seriously. However, if I heard that phrase my first thought would be "He/she thinks I killed her..."

While these phrases are used to lie and to say two different things that are in conflict with each other, it's possible to believe something even though you have reservations about it.

Maybe if you're absolutely certain about everything you can recoil in horror at ever using a qualifier, but some people aren't opposed to admitting that they're not really sure about things, even if those things are the way they feel about something.