And then another time my statistical mechanics prof informed me that "physics is just drawing cartoons of reality with math." That came as a huge existential relief by the way.
Popular science holds that physics is the study of "fundamental laws", but really it's just a special practice of articulating these very stable, ubiquitous patterns.
When you look at things holistically, you will notice that they are often irreducably dynamic, complex and full of potential surprises, along with fully actualized surprises.
So I'd imagine that all these relationships of atmospheric gases with things like the earth's magnetic field, weather patterns, chemical reactions in the atmosphere, interactions with extraterrestrial particles, the dynamics of other magnetic fields, etc. would all make this very difficult to model accurately.
First principles apply very well to our nice toy models, but the sheer vastness of existence usually out-scales our toy models very quickly.