Why I Don't Think The iPhone Will Sell Very Well | Hacker News Reader

Why I Don't Think The iPhone Will Sell Very Well

mattmaroon.com

8 pointsmattmaroon10 comments

This is a similar article to the ones written when the original iPod was announced. Everyone said "who's crazy enough to spend $400 for an MP3 player?", etc. I remember buying the original 5 gig one when it came out, and at the time, none of my (admittedly non-technical) friends bothered to understand what was so great about it to justify the money spent. They all have iPods now (all bought models in the $300-400 range), along with everyone else.

Frankly, these arguments about high price rarely hold up if the product is good. Back when DVD players first appeared on the market, people said the same thing ("Oh, I will never buy that because it's too expensive"). Well, early adopters buy these things, followed by more people, which means prices go down, which means more people buy, etc...

Well I have no doubt that down the line the iPhone will become cheaper and more popular. Especially if they release on more networks. I'm just saying this one won't hit ten million.

I wouldn't back down so much if I were you. I think its entirely possible the iphone wont sell quickly enough for prices to drop, at least in its current incarnation. For all the hype about the iPod's interface these days, I remember the thing that got it going was huge storage and slim design. It was and still is great at playing and storing music.

And while I'm ranting about it, I think the iPhone is a missed opportunity to put in a decent camera. I think about a 5 megapixel camera with flash is mostly good enough as a snap camera for people these days, and people would have justified the extra cost to merge those two devices.

-- From data I've found, it appears to be over 27% for Christmas alone

-- Some analysts expect Apple to have shipped 37 million iPods worldwide by the year-end, with about 10 million sold in the key Christmas quarter.

27% of iPod yearly sales occuring in the Christmas quarter. Interesting interpretation of data there :)

I have to give you props for actually taking the effort to write a blog, but I really think you should work on polishing things a bit more if you're trying to turn it into an asset (if you're just venting steam then please ignore). People will read this kind of stuff when they Google your name, after all:

-- I love Apple fanboys. They never stop drinking Apple's Kool-Aid.

-- Maybe, if that 499 is in pesos. If that's USD dollars and you think it's underpriced then yes, you are the moron.

-- It'll sell a couple million units to the many people who have wet dreams about Steve Jobs, and that will be about it.

I wouldn't be worried about somebody googling my name and finding that. If they google your name and have a big problem with that, you probably don't want to work for them anyway. I suspect that the author is good enough that if he does end up seeking employment (which he isn't at the moment, being in a startup), he won't fail to find it because of that.

I didn't mean potential employers, just in general. I often do it when I hear a name, one way or another, and the impression that is left lasts.

I've been self-employed for a long time and I'm planning on staying that way.

And you're right, I suppose not all iPods sold during the Christmas quarter were gifts. Valid point, but I still don't think it detracts from the overall view that being giftable is a big asset in the sales department.

Sorry, I didn't make it clear, I wasn't saying "fall in or you'll be unemployable". The thought didn't even cross my mind that someone visiting this site would really care about that :)

What I'm saying though, is that someone Googles your name - acquaintance, potential customer/partner/reviewer/employee etc, and it'll happen more and more as you get more successful, they'll make a snap judgement based on what they see (and your blog will be #1).

You're writing interesting content but kind of shooting yourself in the foot by adding a few (very light) personal/group attacks in there. I'm just saying a bit more effort/restraint could turn it into a real asset, people will visit the site and say, wow, this is a guy to look out for. Larry O'Brien (http://www.knowing.net) is one example - I wouldn't know him from a bar of soap without his blog, but I found it, liked it, still read it, and I can tell you now that he'll be far richer in opportunities because he's put that effort in.

So that's what I meant. Maybe I'm overstepping the mark by saying it instead of thinking it, and I should have worded it better, but really I'm just trying to give you a bit of constructive criticism (and like I said, if you're just using it as a diary or to vent, please do ignore what I'm saying).

Yeah, I get what you're saying, and you're not incorrect. I have one of the more popular poker blogs and I've seen the effects first hand. I'm definitely more interested in just making something I like. Obviously for my startup's blog I won't have such liberty.

You may benefit from not using "I" in the title of your posts.

For a good read, try "How to Win Friends and Influence People" as Paul Graham has suggested. Make sure you get a 1930's copy though.

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